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value and opportunity 
Hello! Have you perhaps looked into H+H International A/S? It is an oligipoly business in Europe which is exposed to the newbuilding industry. They produce wall-building material, AAC+CSU, for residential new builds mostly low-rise, but also high-rise. At this moment the market is just as bad as 2008 crisis and volumes are down -35% in 2023. They have reduced operating factories by 30%, from 32 factories and now 5 were taken down for optimising the footprint and 4 for temporary over-supply reasons. So we have a much more balanced supply-demand situation. They seem to still do allright. Net debt/ebitda at 2.6. Tailwinds in the sector with limitied supply-side and an significant residential backlog, especially in Germany, UK and Poland which are their main markets.
Nice times for value investors.
https://themarket.ch/english/this-is-an-ideal-environment-for-value-investors-ld.9640
Hello, we have an absolutely special situation here in Germany.
Haier Smart Home also made an IPO in Frankfurt in 2018, and Haier common shares are now listed in Frankfurt, Hong Kong and Shanghai.
Haier shares are trading at EUR 3.60 in Shanghai, EUR 3.20 in Hong Kong and just EUR 1.12 in Frankfurt.
So the Haier stock here has a P/E ratio of just under 5, and a dividend yield of over 6%.
It is a so-called triple listing consisting of Haier A – D – H shares which are all equal with the same dividend etc.
Maybe you’ll bring a report on this Haier D share so that this absurdly cheaply valued share becomes a little better known.
Thanks for the comment. As have a “no China ” policy I am not interested in that one.
Out of interest: Fraser Perring anounced a big publication for this fall about another potential fraud committed by a German publicly listed company. Since you were involved in the Wirecard discovery, do you have an idea or suspicion what company he’s talking about this time? Not asking you to share but I’m already looking forward to your coverage of the story 🙂
Sorry, no idea. I don’t think that there is a second wirecard though…
Don’t worry, it’s just that i was getting excited. Hoping for some good stories coming out of the L&S situation also. Looking forward to your next blog posts regardless.
Hi I saw you are invested in TFF. They use wood as their main raw material. Wood/Lumber prices have risen substantially as of late and I was wondering how hey are effected by this increase. They seem to have a forestry business in France which might actually be doing rather well as they seem to sell also outside of the Group. However, their US mills probably have to buy white oak in the market. Their inventory for wine woods seems to be 3-4 years and for bourbon woods 1 year. So the value of the inventory might have risen substantially but I assume they have to make rolling purchases to keep the inventory balance stable. Anyway, just wanted to see if you have any view/info on this particular subject. Thanks, Robert
Hi Rob,
to be honest I am not sure if there is a direct connection between Wood/Lumber prices and prices for special oak. They are not really interchangeable in my opinion.
mmi
thanks for your comment. I kind of agree but I heard that the price of pretty much every type of wood has gone up. What made me think about this is their following comment in their March release:
“The outlook remains encouraging for the end of the year, as the Group continues to diversify its activity into the sale of timber.”
Robert
Ok, I didn’t see that. The more sustainable profits in my opinion however are from selling barrels….
Hi mmi, have you by chance researched into Mediaset Espana (DE0007474041) recently?
Very interesting Company IMHO: One of the two biggest Spanish media companies, it’s basically debt free and has a very strong FCF.
Instead of paying a dividend in 2020, they have managed to build a 13,18% stake in Pro7 @~10,9€ on average, which is currently trading @17,4€ after it recovered from depressed Covid-19 levels, flagged Flaconi as a sell candidate and expressed interest to IPO ParshipMeet. So a nice ~200 M€ in book profits for Mediaset Espana already.
Enterprise Value of 1.600M€ (thereof 530M€ Pro7 stock at current values):
~200 M€ FCF + ~15 M€ Pro7 dividend
So it trades at an EV/FCF of 5,5 if I ignore the Pro7 Shares?!
Nice work! Thank you for sharing your experiences. A question regarding cash, do you just let it sit in you bank account or do you hold cash in some other form like Money Market ETFs, while waiting for the opportunities to show up? Thanks and keep up the good work 🙂
Hi, appreciate your writing – interesting insights about how you evaluate certain opportunities and especially the recommended reads. Just wondering your view on the quite common german ordinary vs. preference shares (i.e. Henkel, Fuchs). The ordinary shares generally seem to trade at a lower price / higher dividend yield. Would you usually prefer to invest in those or what are your thoughts on the oridnary / pref trade-off?
Many thanks in advance!
Difficult question. If you want to be invested long term, I would always go for the cheaper series. In some cases (Sixt !) the common shares trade at a significant premium. I have no clue why.
Bravo for continuing to conjure up thoughtful reading and ideas. Really well done!
Thanks 😉
Keep up the great work!
…and have a quick look at Perrot Duval. Will soon be mostly a cash shell and its market cap is lower than it appears (there are 2 classes of shares with different par value and a few treasury shares, so it’s only CHF19m)
Special Situation: Naspers … mal anschauen … für Juli Abspaltung
Have you done any detailed work or taken a detailed look at Bavaria Industries (B8A)?
no.
Hi,
I am regularly reading your post and updates.
For investment purposes I am running a separate calculation sheet. It includes als the holding period in yrs. and quarters in addition to the total return figures . I am also looking at Compound annual growth rates (CAGR). Would be more transparent to me to find this annualized figure also in your current portfolio sheet.
I really appreciate your your investment stile and research. Keep on to do so 🙂
Best,
cv
Hi, someone asked that question a while ago. I don’t think CAGR is a useful measure at single investment level. I do use CAGR of course at portfolio level,
Been reading eagerly your blog for quite a while. Learning and following some your investment idea.
Since last check into the Italian stock market was successful, I would like to share another one with you.
Unipol Gruppo re-organization and creation of a Bad Bank, at zero cost. I believe is creating value that has not been appreciated by the market so far.
I see that you have owned Biogen in the past. Any thoughts about the current tender offer from a Chinese party? In particular I am wondering why the preferred shares (BIO3) are trading at a significant premium to the E19 offered but the common shares are trading at a (reasonable?) deal spread. What am I missing?
Sorry, that would be Biotest AG, not Biogen.
I have owned them loooong time ago and I have no idea why the pref shares trade so high.
Can you comment on new capital increase by Unicredit? Your previous analysis on Unicredit and opportunity for short were really valuable. Thanks
Hi I have been reading your posts and see that you have a lot of insight in investing.
Would you invest in US stocks because they have quite many spin-off activities. I wonder what you would say about HPE’s upcoming 2 spin-offs.
I recently stumble upon Kapsch Traffic (Vienna listed). Seems as reasonably priced value stock. Perhaps you have some thoughts about it?
#Janis, no, never looked at them. Can you give me some more facts why this is a good company and why it might be mispriced ? “Reasonably priced” as such is not a strong argument.
mmi
Hello,
Thank you for writing and updating this interesting blog!
As a Belgium-based Index investor, I was wondering what your take on global-index investing is. Your index portfolio recommendation consists of 4 European-focused indices (with a lot of exposure to the euro currency), but do you choose these because you want to avoid currency risk?
Warren Buffett recommends the S&P 500 as the prime choice for an index fund , but, being based in Belgium (euro currency), would you consider a more global approach and accept currency fluctuations or hedge them?
Thanks in advance for your reply!
Good question. As a Europe based investor, I think using only the S&P 500 would not be appropriate. If you have read my blog, you will know that I am more a bottom up than a top down investor and for me iI find it easier to identify interesting stocks in Europe than for instance in the US where stock picking is more competitive.
In geenral, if you pln to spend your money inthe future in the EUR area, your default allocation should have a large weight in EUR.
Thank you for your quick reply. I am in my mid-twenties, so my investment horizon is quite long. I do understand your position is that of a stock picker, but I wanted to hear your opinion to compare it with research done by Vanguard, who are advocates of a more global portfolio for EU-based investors.
Well, at a more global view I would say that country of domicile for large caps gets less and less important. If you invest in the Dax for instance I would assume that on average you will get 30-50% “non-EUR” exposure as many of the large companies earn at 50% or more “overseas”. So even with a benchmark based on “EU domiciled” companies, you do have already some diversification.
Personally, I find diversification across industries more important than country or currency.
Sehr guter Blog.
Beneide dich um die professionelle Datenbasis. Ich muss mich mit Geschäftsberichten durchkämpfen.
Ich tendiere dazu, große Einzelpositionen zu halten. Zwei davon sind im letzten Jahr ganz schön in die Binsen gegangen: Bilfinger + Leoni. Wollte nur fragen, ob du dazu eine Meinung hast.
Besonders Bilfinger scheint mir in einer ‘special Situation’ zu sein mit dem Cash-Berg, den sie aufgrund des Verkaufs des Immobilienbereichs bald haben werden. Trotz des heutigen deutlichen Anstiegs sehe ich erhebliches Potenzial, einen nicht zu niedrigen Ölpreis vorausgesetzt. Falls du eine Meinung hast, fände ich diese interessant. Viele Grüße.
Habe zu Bilfinger schon einen Post geschrieben, kan mit der Firma nichts anfangen. Leoni kenne ich auch kaum.
Die Datenbasis ist “Fluch und Segen”. Eigentlich sind GEschäftsberichte die beste Quelle.
Have you analyzed AMS (traded in Swiss)? Seems like overvalued stock to me due to very aggressive buy back strategy with almost no free cash flow.
never heard of them.
AMS AG is an Austrian company traded on Swiss stock exchange – http://www.investing.com/equities/ams-ag.
Did you ever look into the market of industrial robots?
KUKA seems to be quite overrated – but FANUC really attracts me: More or less “family owned”, share price bounced back after hype in 2015, just starts to focus on EMEA with remarkable success (e.g. +18% sales in Germany 2015/16), innovative product portfolio including several working prototypes of future technologies…
ABB would be interesting as well but wouldn’t fit my portfolio as I’m looking for something with a regional tendency towards APAC.
Hallo Martin – bin auf Seekingalpha.com auf Gagfah/VNA gestossen. Autor Chris Demuth, welcher einen Special Situation HF führt, hat die Uebernahme von Gagfah beschrieben. Er glaubt, dass der Squeez-out Preis bis auf EUR 27.- steigen könnte.
Wie siehst Du das? Mit bestem Gruss Daniel
Ich bin zwar nicht mArtin aber egal. Ich denke mal Herr Demuth hat meinen Post gelesen. 27 EUR halte ich für unrealistisch.
This blog is awesome! All around good content. I like the combination of your own articles and the links you often post to other articles are always very interesting. Thanks for this blog and keep it up!
Hello ,
i have been reading through your blog and i have found your investment information really exciting and helpful.I also noticed that your are connected to Germany and being in the investment field( which i really enjoy accumulating more knowledge), i would like to know about German Universities which offer studies in either Finance,Economics or Accounting in english language courses preferably.I am not interested in management courses since i believe that they don’t offer many vocational opportunities. You may never answer my questionq but I would really appreciate any informative and helpful response from you.
As you also own Electrica I wonder have you received any dividend yet ?
Payment date for the ADR should be today, but I guess some banks need 1-2 days more to process.
mmi
just a little note that might interest you. Your last couple of postings that I received thru your newsletter do not show up on your site.
thanks. WordPress currently screws up the dates somehow…
Very interesting blog, I am learning a lot and gaining new insight every time I read your articles! I am glad you cover all types of companies and situation with a very pragmatic and practical approach.
Have you ever looked into Jensen Group if I may ask? Keep up the great job!
Which Jensen do you mean ? The Belgian Laundry company ?
Yes indeed, the Belgian laundry equipment supplier. Seems like a steady growing company with solid results and foundations. They’re now planning on buying back a nice part of shares. I was wondering if it is something within your universe of stocks you consider looking at or even investing in? Thomas
57% NCAV + 15% Netto-Gewinnmarge
Conduril SA
It’s a Portuguese construction company. Your can buy them for 57% ncav while they have earned 12% on average the last 5 years!
Even a year after this stock was discovered on this website is still a bargain only now it’s not trading at 40% ncav but at 57%. I’ve been kicking their tires for a year now but couldn’t find a weak hole in the investment case.
I know you can buy them through Fidelity, the German DAB bank or Binckbank which is a Dutch broker, which where I’m living.
There are of course many more interesting angles on this company like how they make this profit margin, insider buying, dividend history, acquisition history (none), ownership structure, stock selling (forced by mutual fund redemptions).
Googling internet will learn you a lot like on:
http://alphavulture.com/2013/04/04/conduril-reports-excellent-results-massive-insider-buying/
If you don’t understand their high receivables account or the difference in separate year’s between cash flow and earnings. I’ll be more then happy to guide you through.
Happy investing!
Maarten Visser
long Conduril SA
Ich Schau momentan dierig, demag,terex, DVB und postbank an
und warum ?
I find your analysis very interesting, keep it up. I am based in France, and I also like French small caps, but they are usually so illiquid that total investment has to be very small. I am tired of having to wait for a whole month to divest a stock and not disturb the market…
On a separate note, I have spent a fair bit of time on KHD, and so have a number of activist investors (Sterling and RWC most notably). It has a lot of cash on the balance sheet, much more than what would be required from an engineering business, and also apparently has good market positions. Its competitors are a lot more profitable (FLSmith in Denmark and Fives in France), and it trades at a bizare level given the amount of cash (entreprise value is barely positive). I would be interested in your thoughts on this, and also on the ability of the activist shareholders to change things in a German context. Many thanks!
thanks for your comments. I had a post about KHD here a year ago. Didn’t like it that much.
mmi
KHD is trading at 150% ncav. So where is the margin of safety.
Try portuguese Conduril SA. At 57% there is a margin of satety. Additionally there:
– 12% net profit margin
– dividend
– no year of loss in its entire history;
– family ownershipn but no option programs;
– exposure to emerging country upside risk (60% turnover from oil producing Angola);
– mutual fund who have to sell cause of redemptios;
– insiders buying 2/3 of shares traded in 2012;
– large receivables who scare the shit out of most investors who are unfamiliar with AIS 11 and to lazy to read the more extensive annual report of the three other public Portuguese construction companies;
– a history of organic growth instead of cash consuming and impairments acquisitions;
– by far the most solid balancesheet of all private and public owned Portuguese construction companies with an Angolese affiliate.
Trade at Fidelity, DAB bank, Binck bank
Maartenj
long Conduril SA
Keep up the good work ! Please consider posting a list of favorite books.
#kirkomi,
there is a permanent page for my recommende reading:
https://valueandopportunity.com/recomended-reading/
mmi
Hallo
Ich habe die beiden Werte sofragi und malteries Franco belgic gekauft
Sind die dir bekannt?
Die ersten sind ein frankreichfonds und die zweite ein malzproduzent mit Engagement in osteuropa
hallo Dirk,
danke für die Tipps. Nein, kenne ich beide nicht. Muss ich mir mal anschauen 😉
mmi
Die email hat schon wieder (oder noch immer) einen overflow: The error that the other server returned was: 552 552-Requested mail action aborted: exceeded storage allocation
552-Quota exceeded.
mfg
i hate that accont;-)
#wexboy,
most likely the account has overflown. Will check and clean tonight.
mmi
Hi, mmi – tried to email you today on your email above – getting rejected?! – any reason why, do you have another address you can email me?
Im Portfolio befindet sich der HT 1 der Commerzbank, jedoch nicht der UT2 (ISIN: DE000A0GVS76). Gibt es hierfür ausser der ALZ Kupongarantie einen Grund?
#moicevail,
ein weiterer Grund ist die Tatsache, dass der UT2 im worstcase reduziert zurückgezahlt werden kann, der HT1 muss immer ers “aufgefüllt” werden.
mmi
wollte in der Mail fragen, ob du schonmal einen Short in Sky Deutschland überlegt hast. Habe in der Suchfunktion nichts gefunden. (2 Mrd. Market Cap für ewige Verluste ist doch etwas viel)
Peter,
Sky Deutschland ist sicher ein interessanter Fall. Für eine Short Spekulation ist mir allerdings die Lage zu unübersichtlich (Murdoch ect.) und die Aktie zu olatil.
MMI
Exzellenter Blog, werde ich in Zukunft öfter lesen.
Freuen würde ich mich zudem über eine kurze Einschätzung zu dieser Aktie:
Eurobank Properties REIC
ISIN: GRS491003000
http://www.eurobankproperties.gr/default.aspx?lang=en-US
Top blog, keep it up.Thanks for all the effort you put into this.
btw, I tried to send you an email but seems that your email doesn’t work.
Hi Matador,
thank you very much. Seems that Groupon again spammed my Email account….have to empty it.
MMI
Find ich gut!
Vielen Dank für Ihre Kommentare, Analysen und Meinungen. Sehr viel Herzblut ist bei Ihnen zu erkennen. Es gibt nicht viele Dinge die ich über Finanzen gerne lese. Ihr Blog gehört auf jeden Fall dazu. Ausserdem ist hier das Fundament sehr gut.. Weiter so!
Viele Grüsse und ein gutes, gesundes, neues Jahr 2012
Bone…
Vielen Dank !! Auch von meiner Seite beste Wünsche für 2012.
Darf ich mal fragen unter welchem Namen du im WPF aktiv bist?
im WPF (Wertpapierforum ?) bin ich nicht aktiv.
Ich hatte bisher angenommen, dass Dryships ein Pleitekandidat ist. Ich nehme mal an dass sie im Moment ordentlich Geld verlieren, die Präsentation zeigt nur asset coverage, aber earnings und cash flow werden nicht erwähnt oder projektiert. Meine Vermutung ist dass diese Wandelanleihen bestenfalls fair bewertet sind…
yps,
beim distressed debt investing geht es hauptsaechlich um Asset Values. Zukueftige Earnings sind eher bei der Aktienanalyse interessant.
mmi
Hat sich jemand in dem Zusammenhang mal SiC Processing angesehen (A1H3HQ)? Spannender Case wie ich finde…
PS: Klasse Blog!
Danke Für das Lob.
Kurze Gegenfrage: Was genau ist spannend bei SIC ?
Hier die letzten Bilanzen in Kurzform:
AV EK
H1/12 2011 H1/12 2011
269 267 115 118
UV FK
114 117 268 265
(48 Cash) (50 Cash)
Aktuell notiert die Anleihe bei 5,8% ergo 4,8 Mio. der Nominalen 82 Mio. Unterstellt man eine paritätische Verteilung der Assets an die Gläubiger (Anleihe ist nicht nachrangig), impliziert die aktuelle Notierung, dass das gesamte Vermögen nicht mehr wert ist als 16 Mio. Euro. Alleine im Hinblick auf den Cash-Bestand (auch wenn 34 Mio. bei der insolventen norwegischen Tochter eingefroren sein dürften) erscheint diese Relation recht drastisch. Zugegeben, der (ungeprüfte) Bericht ist ein Jahr alt und die Lage der Branche hat sich nicht wirklich verbessert. Eine solche Wertvernichtung innerhalb so kurzer Zeit ist m.E. jedoch unwahrscheinliche. Der Verdacht eines Missbrauchs des “Schutzschirmverfahren” drängt sich auf (http://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/geldanlage/anleiheglaeubiger-ausgebootet-operativ-profitabel/7933162-6.html). Hier sei erwähnt, dass die Gläubiger am 4. April einen unabhängigen Insolvenzverwalter bestellt haben.
Obwohl es ein “Äpfel mit Birnen”-Vergleich ist, erscheint der Abschlag gegenüber anderen Anleihen der Branche z.B. Solarworld oder Q-Cells zudem recht hoch.
Just my two cents…
hmm, wenn das Cash bei einer Tochter ist und der Bond bei der Mutter, dann ist man strukturell nachrangig.
Im Insolvenzfall ist es immer von Nachteil, wenn man nicht direkt an den operativen Töchtern mit den Vermögenswerten hängt. Der cash aknn leider in soclhen Fällen sehr schnell weg sein. Durch “Massekredite” ist da schnell die Kohle bzw. das Pfandrecht daran weg.
Ausserdem sieht das m.E. schon auch sehr nach Betrug in der ein oder anderen Form aus wenn man 1 Jahr nach Emission pleite ist.
Gebe Dir vollkommen recht. Missbrauchs des “Schutzschirmverfahren” ist ja auch nur ein etwas diplomatischeres Wort für Betrug/Scheininsolvenz. Der Einwand mit den Assets in den Tochtergesellschaften ist richtig und im Endeffekt auch entscheidend, aber dafür gibt es ja auch einen gewaltigen Abschlag. Das gleiche Gilt ja im übrigen auch für fast alle Großunternehmen die ihre Anleihen in Holdings oder SPEs emittieren…