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61 comments

  • Gaetano Marino

    Been reading eagerly your blog for quite a while. Learning and following some your investment idea.
    Since last check into the Italian stock market was successful, I would like to share another one with you.
    Unipol Gruppo re-organization and creation of a Bad Bank, at zero cost. I believe is creating value that has not been appreciated by the market so far.

  • I see that you have owned Biogen in the past. Any thoughts about the current tender offer from a Chinese party? In particular I am wondering why the preferred shares (BIO3) are trading at a significant premium to the E19 offered but the common shares are trading at a (reasonable?) deal spread. What am I missing?

  • Can you comment on new capital increase by Unicredit? Your previous analysis on Unicredit and opportunity for short were really valuable. Thanks

  • Hi I have been reading your posts and see that you have a lot of insight in investing.

    Would you invest in US stocks because they have quite many spin-off activities. I wonder what you would say about HPE’s upcoming 2 spin-offs.

  • I recently stumble upon Kapsch Traffic (Vienna listed). Seems as reasonably priced value stock. Perhaps you have some thoughts about it?

    • #Janis, no, never looked at them. Can you give me some more facts why this is a good company and why it might be mispriced ? “Reasonably priced” as such is not a strong argument.
      mmi

  • Hello,

    Thank you for writing and updating this interesting blog!

    As a Belgium-based Index investor, I was wondering what your take on global-index investing is. Your index portfolio recommendation consists of 4 European-focused indices (with a lot of exposure to the euro currency), but do you choose these because you want to avoid currency risk?

    Warren Buffett recommends the S&P 500 as the prime choice for an index fund , but, being based in Belgium (euro currency), would you consider a more global approach and accept currency fluctuations or hedge them?

    Thanks in advance for your reply!

    • Good question. As a Europe based investor, I think using only the S&P 500 would not be appropriate. If you have read my blog, you will know that I am more a bottom up than a top down investor and for me iI find it easier to identify interesting stocks in Europe than for instance in the US where stock picking is more competitive.

      In geenral, if you pln to spend your money inthe future in the EUR area, your default allocation should have a large weight in EUR.

      • Thank you for your quick reply. I am in my mid-twenties, so my investment horizon is quite long. I do understand your position is that of a stock picker, but I wanted to hear your opinion to compare it with research done by Vanguard, who are advocates of a more global portfolio for EU-based investors.

        • Well, at a more global view I would say that country of domicile for large caps gets less and less important. If you invest in the Dax for instance I would assume that on average you will get 30-50% “non-EUR” exposure as many of the large companies earn at 50% or more “overseas”. So even with a benchmark based on “EU domiciled” companies, you do have already some diversification.

          Personally, I find diversification across industries more important than country or currency.

  • Sehr guter Blog.
    Beneide dich um die professionelle Datenbasis. Ich muss mich mit Geschäftsberichten durchkämpfen.

    Ich tendiere dazu, große Einzelpositionen zu halten. Zwei davon sind im letzten Jahr ganz schön in die Binsen gegangen: Bilfinger + Leoni. Wollte nur fragen, ob du dazu eine Meinung hast.
    Besonders Bilfinger scheint mir in einer ‘special Situation’ zu sein mit dem Cash-Berg, den sie aufgrund des Verkaufs des Immobilienbereichs bald haben werden. Trotz des heutigen deutlichen Anstiegs sehe ich erhebliches Potenzial, einen nicht zu niedrigen Ölpreis vorausgesetzt. Falls du eine Meinung hast, fände ich diese interessant. Viele Grüße.

    • Habe zu Bilfinger schon einen Post geschrieben, kan mit der Firma nichts anfangen. Leoni kenne ich auch kaum.

      Die Datenbasis ist “Fluch und Segen”. Eigentlich sind GEschäftsberichte die beste Quelle.

  • Have you analyzed AMS (traded in Swiss)? Seems like overvalued stock to me due to very aggressive buy back strategy with almost no free cash flow.

  • Did you ever look into the market of industrial robots?

    KUKA seems to be quite overrated – but FANUC really attracts me: More or less “family owned”, share price bounced back after hype in 2015, just starts to focus on EMEA with remarkable success (e.g. +18% sales in Germany 2015/16), innovative product portfolio including several working prototypes of future technologies…

    ABB would be interesting as well but wouldn’t fit my portfolio as I’m looking for something with a regional tendency towards APAC.

  • Hallo Martin – bin auf Seekingalpha.com auf Gagfah/VNA gestossen. Autor Chris Demuth, welcher einen Special Situation HF führt, hat die Uebernahme von Gagfah beschrieben. Er glaubt, dass der Squeez-out Preis bis auf EUR 27.- steigen könnte.
    Wie siehst Du das? Mit bestem Gruss Daniel

  • This blog is awesome! All around good content. I like the combination of your own articles and the links you often post to other articles are always very interesting. Thanks for this blog and keep it up!

  • Hello ,
    i have been reading through your blog and i have found your investment information really exciting and helpful.I also noticed that your are connected to Germany and being in the investment field( which i really enjoy accumulating more knowledge), i would like to know about German Universities which offer studies in either Finance,Economics or Accounting in english language courses preferably.I am not interested in management courses since i believe that they don’t offer many vocational opportunities. You may never answer my questionq but I would really appreciate any informative and helpful response from you.

  • As you also own Electrica I wonder have you received any dividend yet ?

  • just a little note that might interest you. Your last couple of postings that I received thru your newsletter do not show up on your site.

  • Very interesting blog, I am learning a lot and gaining new insight every time I read your articles! I am glad you cover all types of companies and situation with a very pragmatic and practical approach.
    Have you ever looked into Jensen Group if I may ask? Keep up the great job!

    • Which Jensen do you mean ? The Belgian Laundry company ?

      • Yes indeed, the Belgian laundry equipment supplier. Seems like a steady growing company with solid results and foundations. They’re now planning on buying back a nice part of shares. I was wondering if it is something within your universe of stocks you consider looking at or even investing in? Thomas

  • 57% NCAV + 15% Netto-Gewinnmarge

    Conduril SA

    It’s a Portuguese construction company. Your can buy them for 57% ncav while they have earned 12% on average the last 5 years!

    Even a year after this stock was discovered on this website is still a bargain only now it’s not trading at 40% ncav but at 57%. I’ve been kicking their tires for a year now but couldn’t find a weak hole in the investment case.

    I know you can buy them through Fidelity, the German DAB bank or Binckbank which is a Dutch broker, which where I’m living.

    There are of course many more interesting angles on this company like how they make this profit margin, insider buying, dividend history, acquisition history (none), ownership structure, stock selling (forced by mutual fund redemptions).

    Googling internet will learn you a lot like on:

    http://alphavulture.com/2013/04/04/conduril-reports-excellent-results-massive-insider-buying/

    If you don’t understand their high receivables account or the difference in separate year’s between cash flow and earnings. I’ll be more then happy to guide you through.

    Happy investing!

    Maarten Visser
    long Conduril SA

  • Ich Schau momentan dierig, demag,terex, DVB und postbank an

  • I find your analysis very interesting, keep it up. I am based in France, and I also like French small caps, but they are usually so illiquid that total investment has to be very small. I am tired of having to wait for a whole month to divest a stock and not disturb the market…
    On a separate note, I have spent a fair bit of time on KHD, and so have a number of activist investors (Sterling and RWC most notably). It has a lot of cash on the balance sheet, much more than what would be required from an engineering business, and also apparently has good market positions. Its competitors are a lot more profitable (FLSmith in Denmark and Fives in France), and it trades at a bizare level given the amount of cash (entreprise value is barely positive). I would be interested in your thoughts on this, and also on the ability of the activist shareholders to change things in a German context. Many thanks!

    • thanks for your comments. I had a post about KHD here a year ago. Didn’t like it that much.
      mmi

    • KHD is trading at 150% ncav. So where is the margin of safety.

      Try portuguese Conduril SA. At 57% there is a margin of satety. Additionally there:
      – 12% net profit margin
      – dividend
      – no year of loss in its entire history;
      – family ownershipn but no option programs;
      – exposure to emerging country upside risk (60% turnover from oil producing Angola);
      – mutual fund who have to sell cause of redemptios;
      – insiders buying 2/3 of shares traded in 2012;
      – large receivables who scare the shit out of most investors who are unfamiliar with AIS 11 and to lazy to read the more extensive annual report of the three other public Portuguese construction companies;
      – a history of organic growth instead of cash consuming and impairments acquisitions;
      – by far the most solid balancesheet of all private and public owned Portuguese construction companies with an Angolese affiliate.

      Trade at Fidelity, DAB bank, Binck bank

      Maartenj

      long Conduril SA

  • Keep up the good work ! Please consider posting a list of favorite books.

  • Dirk schiller

    Hallo
    Ich habe die beiden Werte sofragi und malteries Franco belgic gekauft
    Sind die dir bekannt?
    Die ersten sind ein frankreichfonds und die zweite ein malzproduzent mit Engagement in osteuropa

  • Die email hat schon wieder (oder noch immer) einen overflow: The error that the other server returned was: 552 552-Requested mail action aborted: exceeded storage allocation
    552-Quota exceeded.

    mfg

  • #wexboy,

    most likely the account has overflown. Will check and clean tonight.

    mmi

  • Hi, mmi – tried to email you today on your email above – getting rejected?! – any reason why, do you have another address you can email me?

  • Im Portfolio befindet sich der HT 1 der Commerzbank, jedoch nicht der UT2 (ISIN: DE000A0GVS76). Gibt es hierfür ausser der ALZ Kupongarantie einen Grund?

    • #moicevail,

      ein weiterer Grund ist die Tatsache, dass der UT2 im worstcase reduziert zurückgezahlt werden kann, der HT1 muss immer ers “aufgefüllt” werden.

      mmi

  • wollte in der Mail fragen, ob du schonmal einen Short in Sky Deutschland überlegt hast. Habe in der Suchfunktion nichts gefunden. (2 Mrd. Market Cap für ewige Verluste ist doch etwas viel)

    • Peter,

      Sky Deutschland ist sicher ein interessanter Fall. Für eine Short Spekulation ist mir allerdings die Lage zu unübersichtlich (Murdoch ect.) und die Aktie zu olatil.

      MMI

  • Exzellenter Blog, werde ich in Zukunft öfter lesen.

    Freuen würde ich mich zudem über eine kurze Einschätzung zu dieser Aktie:

    Eurobank Properties REIC
    ISIN: GRS491003000
    http://www.eurobankproperties.gr/default.aspx?lang=en-US

  • Top blog, keep it up.Thanks for all the effort you put into this.
    btw, I tried to send you an email but seems that your email doesn’t work.

  • Find ich gut!

    Vielen Dank für Ihre Kommentare, Analysen und Meinungen. Sehr viel Herzblut ist bei Ihnen zu erkennen. Es gibt nicht viele Dinge die ich über Finanzen gerne lese. Ihr Blog gehört auf jeden Fall dazu. Ausserdem ist hier das Fundament sehr gut.. Weiter so!

    Viele Grüsse und ein gutes, gesundes, neues Jahr 2012

    Bone…

  • Darf ich mal fragen unter welchem Namen du im WPF aktiv bist?

  • Ich hatte bisher angenommen, dass Dryships ein Pleitekandidat ist. Ich nehme mal an dass sie im Moment ordentlich Geld verlieren, die Präsentation zeigt nur asset coverage, aber earnings und cash flow werden nicht erwähnt oder projektiert. Meine Vermutung ist dass diese Wandelanleihen bestenfalls fair bewertet sind…

    • yps,

      beim distressed debt investing geht es hauptsaechlich um Asset Values. Zukueftige Earnings sind eher bei der Aktienanalyse interessant.

      mmi

      • Hat sich jemand in dem Zusammenhang mal SiC Processing angesehen (A1H3HQ)? Spannender Case wie ich finde…

        PS: Klasse Blog!

      • Hier die letzten Bilanzen in Kurzform:

        AV EK
        H1/12 2011 H1/12 2011
        269 267 115 118
        UV FK
        114 117 268 265
        (48 Cash) (50 Cash)

        Aktuell notiert die Anleihe bei 5,8% ergo 4,8 Mio. der Nominalen 82 Mio. Unterstellt man eine paritätische Verteilung der Assets an die Gläubiger (Anleihe ist nicht nachrangig), impliziert die aktuelle Notierung, dass das gesamte Vermögen nicht mehr wert ist als 16 Mio. Euro. Alleine im Hinblick auf den Cash-Bestand (auch wenn 34 Mio. bei der insolventen norwegischen Tochter eingefroren sein dürften) erscheint diese Relation recht drastisch. Zugegeben, der (ungeprüfte) Bericht ist ein Jahr alt und die Lage der Branche hat sich nicht wirklich verbessert. Eine solche Wertvernichtung innerhalb so kurzer Zeit ist m.E. jedoch unwahrscheinliche. Der Verdacht eines Missbrauchs des “Schutzschirmverfahren” drängt sich auf (http://www.wiwo.de/finanzen/geldanlage/anleiheglaeubiger-ausgebootet-operativ-profitabel/7933162-6.html). Hier sei erwähnt, dass die Gläubiger am 4. April einen unabhängigen Insolvenzverwalter bestellt haben.
        Obwohl es ein “Äpfel mit Birnen”-Vergleich ist, erscheint der Abschlag gegenüber anderen Anleihen der Branche z.B. Solarworld oder Q-Cells zudem recht hoch.

        Just my two cents…

        • hmm, wenn das Cash bei einer Tochter ist und der Bond bei der Mutter, dann ist man strukturell nachrangig.

          Im Insolvenzfall ist es immer von Nachteil, wenn man nicht direkt an den operativen Töchtern mit den Vermögenswerten hängt. Der cash aknn leider in soclhen Fällen sehr schnell weg sein. Durch “Massekredite” ist da schnell die Kohle bzw. das Pfandrecht daran weg.

          Ausserdem sieht das m.E. schon auch sehr nach Betrug in der ein oder anderen Form aus wenn man 1 Jahr nach Emission pleite ist.

      • Gebe Dir vollkommen recht. Missbrauchs des “Schutzschirmverfahren” ist ja auch nur ein etwas diplomatischeres Wort für Betrug/Scheininsolvenz. Der Einwand mit den Assets in den Tochtergesellschaften ist richtig und im Endeffekt auch entscheidend, aber dafür gibt es ja auch einen gewaltigen Abschlag. Das gleiche Gilt ja im übrigen auch für fast alle Großunternehmen die ihre Anleihen in Holdings oder SPEs emittieren…

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