Monthly Archives: January 2020

All German Shares Part 13 (Nr. 226-250)

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Another week, another 25er batch of “fresh” German companies. Again, there is a lot of “Garbage” but also some interesting “watch” positions. One of the candidates is German Startups Group which, in the meantime made it into my portfolio. I publish the “All German stock” Series with a certain time lag and if time allows, I dive deeper into stocks that really interest me a lot. So It can happen that I decide to invest prior to actually publishing the respective post…

226. SAP AG 

With 147 bn EUR the most valuable listed German company, leader in enterprise software with a steady increase in valuation over the last years:

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Some links

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Shopify’s stock looks VERY expensive

Scott Galloway looks at his 2019 predictions and makes a few new ones fro 2020

Belgian Blog Zephyr Database has started the “All Belgian Shares” project. Part 1 is a great read.

Undervalued Shares has a nice post on unlisted shares

TGV Partners 2019 letter to investors

The UK Value investor with a deep dive into the reasons behind Ted Baker’s collapse

Greenlight Q4 Letter to investors and the Fundsmith 2019 letter

All German shares Part 12 (Nr. 201-225)

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The next 25 randomly selected company in my “Grand Tour Germany” project with 6 of them going onto my watch list. Enjoy !!

201. TTL Beteiligungs- und Grundbesitz AG

A 67 mn EUR market cap company that started as tech company in the dot.com boom, went bust and then reemerged as real estate company a few years ago. The company invests into real estate and real estate companies. As mentioned several times, not an area that I am much interested in. “Pass”.

202. FinLab AG

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Howard Marks with a new memo mainly on decision under uncertainty

TGV Rubicon with their 2019 letter to investors

Scott Galloway on the chances of Casper actually doing an IPO

Forager discusses a few positions of their international fund

Some ideas from a recent stock conference called MOI (incl. Cars.com…ugh)

Stratchery on Visa’s acquisition of Plaid (for 50x revenue…..)

OTC adventures has discovered a nice exotic French stock

Metro Bank Plc – Terminal decline or Deep Value opportunity ?

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Warning: This is not investment advice. The author recently had a very disappointing track record so you might want to stay away as far as possible from this stock. DO YOUR OWN research.

Some three and a half year ago I briefly looked at Metro Bank, then the much hyped “Apple of Banking” and I didn’t like it that much. My summary back then was as follows:

Fundamentally, I do think that at the current share prIce the stock is already very “richly” valued as I don’t see a sustainable business model to earn the required returns on equity in the long run.I see a large risk that Metro Bank is rather a “one-trick pony” which worked well once but most likely not a second time.

At some point in time in the future this could even turn out to be an interesting short opportunity when growth is slowing and defaults start catching up.

In the meantime a couple of things happened:

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My 20 Investments for 2020

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My “resident blog troll” might interpret this post as “The 20 Stocks to stay away from in 2020” due to the underwhelming 2019 performance, but these are the stocks that are in my blog portfolio in the beginning of 2020.  Every reader can do whatever he wants with that list, either ignore it, go short or whatever.

I do a brief recap of each investment case including a short outlook from a portfolio perspective.

The summaries of the previous years can be found here:

My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

1. Miko (4,1% weight)

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Prof. Galloway really doesn’t like Softbank

Must read: Rob Vinall has released his 2019 investor letter (New position: Wix)

The Peridot Capitalist thinks it would be a good idea to merge Uber Eats into Grubhub

Two UK reviews: Maynard Peyton reviews his (UK Small Cap) portfolio and another very good 2019 review from John Kingham (UK Value Investor)

Ben Carlson has written a book about financial scams and shares some scams that didn’t make it into the book

A very interesting story on how Netflix & Co are changing Hollywood

For the German speaking readers: Paladin One with their very transparent 2019 report

 

Performance review 2019 – Comment “Value Trading & Portfolio Decay”

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In 2019, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +15,0% (including dividends, no taxes) against +27.9% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in 2019:

Partners Fund TGV: +4,26% 
Profitlich/Schmidlin: +12,7%
Squad European Convictions +22,6%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos +6,9% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen +8,1%
Evermore Global Value  +23.9% (USD)
Greiff Special Situation +1,2%
Squad Aguja Special Situation +18,2%

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Very interesting thoughts on US vs. China from a technology perspective and some very interesting books

JP Morgan’s guide to the markets (US focused) is worth reading

Prof. Damodaran on why big “total addressable markets” do not automatically mean great investment opportunities

GlobalStockPicking’ blog 2019 review

Bruce Packard is experimenting with Markov Chain analysis on company announcements

ClarkStreetValue had another (crazy) good year in 2019

A2 Milk from New Zealand has been a 162-bagger in the last decade

 

All German Shares – Part 11 (Nr. 176-200)

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New year, same series. This time the 25 stocks contain 5 watch list candidates. At 200 stocks I have managed now to cover already 25% of the universe.

176. Puma SE

Puma SE, the iconic German sportswear brand founded by the brother of Adi Dassler (Adidas) is a very interesting case. The now 10 bn EUR market company was one of the real hot growth stocks in the 90ies early 2000s, then nothing happened for a long time as we can see in the chart:

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