Category Archives: Anlage Philosophie

All Belgian Shares part 6 – Nr. 101-120

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With this post, we crossed the “half-time” mark for the Belgian Stock Market. Among these 20, in random order selected stocks, 6 made it onto the watch list, among them a former holding of mine. Let’s go:

101. Newtree

According to TIKR, this 17 mn EUR market cap company “provides chocolates, spreads, snacks, gifts, and coffee products. It also offers products through online”. On their investor website, annual accounts are only available to 2018. “Pass”.

102. Elia Group

Elia is th 6,6 bn EUR market cap operator of the Belgian Electricity transmission network. They also own and run 50 Hertz, one of the larger German transmission network operators. Electricity transmission networks are fully regulated assets, i.e. if the network is working, the owner gets a guaranteed return based on the “Regulated Asset Base (RAB)”.

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The German Mittelstand is maybe Down but not Out: Hermle AG – Hidden Automation Champion from the “Ländle”

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As always with my longer write-ups, I will attach the full PDF below. In the post itself I will focus on the Exec summary, Pro’s and Con’s and the conclusion. And the Bonus Track of course at the end.

Executive Summary

Hermle AG is a typical “Hidden Champion” Mittelstand company from Southwestern Germany (Baden Wuerttemberg, the “Ländle”) that managed to carve out a very nice niche in 5- Axis CNC machines and connected production automation.  The company is able to earn industry leading EBIT margins (>20%) and Returns on Capital (>30%), has a Fortress Balance sheet and trades only at a relatively modest valuation of around 7,7x EV/EBIT.

The business is exposed to the economic cycle, but a combination of competitive advantages, a flexible cost base and a structural tailwind (Automation) make the stock attractive in the mid- to long term

Full PDF can be read & downloaded here:

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Eurokai KGaA (ISIN DE0005706535) – Playing the “Time arbitrage game” with the possibly cheapest Port Stock in the World 

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!

Some reason for not reading this post:

  • You have already posted YTD Performance numbers on FinTwit
  • You don’t like capital intensive stocks
  • You don’t like cyclical stocks
  • You prefer stocks that have positive share price and/or fundamental momentum
  • You require short term catalysts/Share buy backs/activists etc.
  • You like simple businesses with simple structures
  • You think Germany/Italy/Europe is going down the drain anyway

In such a case, do yourself and myself a favor and move on.

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All Belgian Shares Part 1 – Nr. 1-20

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Hello Belgium, here I am !!!
As in my previous series, a random number generator will determine in which order I will look at the roughly 210+ shares.

One initial remark on the “Expert Market” Segment: This is a very illiquid segment of stocks that are traded only once a week (Tuesdays) in an Auction. Some stocks haven’t traded for years. Sometimes very little or no information is available for these companies. In this series, I will only take a closer look at those Expert market stocks that have been trading at least once in 2023. The others I will only mention briefly. As the Expert market is almost 50% of the universe, there will be a lot of very short reviews.

Let’s go !!!

  1. TPF Contracting (Expert Market)

TPF Contracting SA provides design, management and supervision, and asset management services for public and private clients in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa. It offers its services for transport and mobility, buildings and cities, and environment and water sectors.

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A very quick Champagne Peer Group Check (Laurent Perrier, Vranken-Pommery, Lanson BCC)

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For the new year, one of my todos was to check the other two listed Champagne Houses in France, Vranken-Pommery and Lanson BCC.

As I mentioned in the original post, my main motivation to buy Laurent Perrier was that it’s name always showed up when I looked up Gerard Perrier.

Using TIKR as a quick comparison tool, one can see, that the two other players; Vranken-Pommery and Lanson-BCC trade at even lower PEs than Laurent Perrier:

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My 22 (+1) investments for 2024

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Following an annual tradition, by the end of the year, I review my portfolio by writing/updating very short summaries for each individual position.  16 of the 23 positions from last year are still in the portfolio and I have added 7 new positions. That turnover has been partially driven by exits/take-overs (Schaffner, Logistec) and by finding new ideas. A more comprehensive Performance review will follow in early January 2024.

A short user guide:
My preferred style of investing is a bottom up approach, focusing on 20-30 small/midcap stocks that in my opinion have a good return/risk profile over the next 3-5 (or more) years. Many of these stocks are not household names and are unlikely to make spectacular gains in any single year. Many of them look interesting only after the second or third glance and are rather boring, which is exactly what I am looking for. So if you are looking for a “Hot stock for 2024”, this post won’t help you much.

And always remember: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

As a special service and to offer something “fresh”, I have created a new portfolio overview chart based on holding periods which I proudly present here:

The summaries of the previous years can be found here:

My 23 Investments for 2023
My 28 Investments for 2022
My 21 (+6) Investments for 2021
My 20 investments for 2020
My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

Let’s go:

1. TFF Group (Portfolio weight 7,4%, Holding period 13,0 years)

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All Norwegian Stocks part 17 – Nr. 236 – 255

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So, one more Norwegian stocks post before Christmas. Another 20 randomly selected stocks with some Sparebanken, early stage VC suff but also 4 companies that made it onto the watch list.

EDIT: Apologies, I got the numbering wrong, this is actually post number 17 and the companies 236-255. So less than 20 to go…..

236. Standard Supply

Standard Supply is a 78 mn EUR market cap company that was formed and IPOed in 2022. They own a couple of ships that supply oil platforms and according to the presentation have been bought cheaply. As I have little knoweledge on the sector, I’ll “pass”.

237. Romerike Sparebank

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Samse Group (ISIN FR0000060071) – A Hidden French Compounder that is as exciting as watching Paint dry ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

As in the past, due to the bad WordPress editor, I’ll post a summary here and attach the full write-up as PDF.

After teasing a new position in the Nabaltec “Post Mortem”, I proudly present the next (hopefully) super boring company for my boring portfolio.

SAMSE SA is a French company that distributes building materials to “professional” customers like contractors, craftsmen etc. It also has a smaller “Direct to consumer” DYI store segment, which represents around 20% of sales. Samse is active only in France and No. 2 after Saint Gobain, which, however is much bigger even only in this specific sector (2000 outlets vs. 350).

Here is an overview of relevant “KPIs” at a share price of 190 EUR (time of writing):

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Post Mortem Nabaltec AG – Beware of the “Short term fundamental Bull trap”

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Background:

As mentioned in the comments of the original post, I exited Nabaltec a few days ago, in order to fund a new position. There is no way around the fact that it was not a good investment. Actually, in the 13 years of this blog, it qualified as the 4th worst investment with regard to overall percentage loss within my “hall of shame” that I proudly present in this table:

Of course, there will be always bad investments but I think it is important to analyze what I could have been doing better in order to avoid making the same mistakes over and over again.

So what went wrong ?

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Value & Opportunity 13th Anniversary

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Every year on December 15th, the blog celebrates another anniversary, because on that day in December 2010, the blog went live for the first time.

As always there will be a separate performance portfolio review in the beginning of January.  13 is often considered an unlucky number. So far that hasn’t be the case for the blog, rather the opposite, as I didn’t have to start another “Panic Series” revival.

I have been thinking if I know any other stock focused blog that is still active and older than mine, but I couldn’t think of many. There are some longer running Financial blogs such as Calculated Risk or Marginal Revolution. Prof. Damodaran’s blog Musings on Markets is up since 15 years.

I can only speculate why so many blogs have disappeared over time, maybe it’s the allure of Social Media or the fact that a couple of the early bloggers became professional.

Personally I would be very interested if my readers know other stock focused blogs that have been running for a very long time. Kindly post into the comments if you know about stock blogs that exist for 10 years or longer.

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