Category Archives: Anlage Philosophie

Some links

Two different approaches: Bireme Capital sticks to Value Investing whereas Forager has joined the SPAC party

A great three part holistic series from Prof. Damodaran on Value Investing: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3

Interesting deep dive into the often overlooked Geothermal Energy 

Morningstar on some lasting changes in consumer behavior from the pandemic

In-depth look into US vs. Google from Stratechery

An interesting portrait of Cliff Asness and his blog from UndervaluedShares

Crazy times: How Just mentioning Green Hydrogen by Management can push any (LNG) stock into the stratosphere 

“Trading Corner” Part 1 – The rules, German Basket Cleansing & neW Trade: Play Magnus Group (ISIN NO0010890726)

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!!

Follow up

A big thank you top all readers who either commented on my open question  if and how to include “Trading positions” into the blog. Overall I concluded that I can allow myself the luxury of a small allocation to “trades” as long as I do it consistently and with good risk management. One of the luxuries of a private investor is indeed that one can allow oneself some fun without needing to explain it to third parties and having fun is important to stay motivated.

Following some additional deliberations, my approach (for the time being) will be the following:

  • I will allow myself up to max 10% and up to max 7 trading positions at any given time going forward
  • In order to track them I will write short summaries with a clear “game plan” for the position
  • Close ot in case of a pre defined loss is a must
  • The maximum time allowed will be set at 12 months and either they go out or get upgraded to my other “buckets” in order to avoid a lot of “Trade goes wrong and becomes investment” positions
  • However, the “German Basket” will be “sacrificed”, as this honestly is already some kind of “trading portfolio”

German Basket “cleansing”:

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Performance review 9m 2020 – Comment “Covid 19 Portfolio Lottery & the allure of speculation”

In the first 9 months of 2020, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +3,7% (including dividends, no taxes) against a loss of -6.9% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Since inception (01.01.2011), this translates into +201 % vs. 98%  for the Benchmark.

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in the first 9M 2020:

Partners Fund TGV: +6,3%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: -4,1%
Squad European Convictions +5,99%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos -19,82% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -6,1%
Evermore Global Value  18.37%(USD)
Greiff Special Situation -3.69%
Squad Aguja Special Situation 12.45%
Paladin One 15.94%

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All German Shares Part 31 (Nr. 676-700)

And again 25 more randomly selected German shares with short analysis for each one. This time, seven (!!!) candidated were worth “wacthing”.

Maybe one remark: I asked last time for suggestions for the next series. however before I move on, I will also need to thin down the watch list to an amount that I can handle going forward. At the moment, the extended watch list comprises 141 (!!) stocks which I want to slim down to something like 25 or so.

676. mwb fairtrade Wertpapierhandelsbank AG

mwb is a 33 mn EUR market cap securities trading company. For some reasons, the stock price doubled in 2020, mabye a result of overall trading activity. As I do not undertand their business model, I’ll “pass”.

677. Bayerische Motorenwerke AG 

BMW is clearly one of the most famous German brands and one of the most successful car manufacturers in the world. With a market cap of ~39 bn USD, it is valued at a fraction of Tesla and the stock price is on a pretty long lasting downtrend:

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Panic Journal – Season 2: “Taking Stock”

Two and a half months after the end of “Panic Journal Season 1”, it seems that “Season 2” is about to start (or has started already in some areas like Madrid or Israel, or never ended as in the US)

Time to summarize what from my point of view has changed or been confirmed since season 1:

Positives:
+ Vaccine efforts are well on the way. AstraZeneca, despite a short interruption still seems to be a forerunner and end of 2020 seems to be realistic for a functional vaccine to be available
+ although the US had many days with more than 1000 deaths a day, overall the ratio of deaths to reported infections seems to go down in most parts of the world

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All German Share part 30 (Nr. 651-675)

Time flies, it’s more than a month since the last posting of this series. So another 25 randomly selected German stocks. Despite the usual duds, the dices this time brought up 6 stocks that I found in principle worth watching.

With “only” around 100 stocks left, I need to think about another market/area that I will cover in this systematic way. Suggestions highly welcome !

651. IFA Hotel & Touristik AG

IFA is a 242 mn EUR market cap company that has rarity value: I think it is the only remaining listed German stock that represents a “Hotel pure play”. However there are a few specialties to consider: The company is majority owned by the Spanish Lopesan Group. Lopesan did a lot of related party transactions with other Lopesan entities and IFA did a couple of capital increases without real necessity.

So far, there doesn’t seem to be any indication that Lopesan has screwed minorities. Some of the “Trades” were actually quite profitabel. Nevertheless, the stock is on a 2 years downtrend that just accelerated due to Covid-19:

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Grenke – Quick take oN the first statement from W. GRenke

Disclaimer: There is some real wild speculation in this post which represents an explicit personal opinion from a concerned investor and nothing else. Please don’t take this seriously and please don’t sue me !!!!

Just a very quick update on Mr. Grenke’s release that came 1 hour later than announced (when my index finger already began to hurt from refreshing the home page).

I have copied out only the “juicy” part, highlights are mine:

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Grenke Leasing Short Attack – First analysis

Background:

Long time readers of my blog know that I covered Grenke a while back and unfortunately invested instead in what I thought was the “Australian Grenke” with a pretty bad outcome.

Now Viceroy Research came out with a blazing short attack on Grenke. Viceroy seems to be the same guy that released the now famous “Zatarra Report” on Wirecard in 2016.

This post is a first attempt to look at the allegations in order to find out if they are true and how severe they potentially could be. At the time of writing, Grenke is down more ~ -20% and close to the lows from March.

1. Non disclosed related party transactions

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SPACs vs . IPOs – Is it Different This time ?

I have covered the current SPAC Mania already in a post in June on Nikola, but since then SPACs only seem to gather more steam.

VC legend Bill Gurley (Banchmark Capital, Uber) has released an interesting post on the three main venues for a company to go public: A “classic” IPO, a simple listing and finally the SPAC.

I’ll try to summarize his post:

  • he argues that the IPO process is “broken” and rigged by the I-Banks. His proof is that on average, IPO’s are “Popping”  ~20% on the first day of trading which means that this difference, multiplied by the number of shares placed, is “stolen” from the previous owners (i.e. himself as a VC)
  • on top of that, companies have to pay IPO fees
  • The reason is that banks prefer special clients and do not really match demand and supply
  • as direct listings (Spotify) do not allow to raise large amounts of money, reverse mergers with SPACs are preferable
  • He argues that SPACs have “lower cost of capital” than IPOs but doesn’t give any examples. His main “proof” here is that there are so many SPACs now and that companies can negotiate really hard.
  • and of course the way to public markets is a lot faster for a SPAC

Bill Gurley is clearly not an idiot as he most likely is now a billionaire following some very impressive investment successes (Uber) with Benchmark capital. However I do think that his arguments have some serious flaws.

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