Monthly Archives: May 2021

Some Links

Marc Rubinstein with his Adventures in Cryptoland

Recommended: A surprisingly good (German) Reddit forum on Investing and stock analysis

Prof. Damodaran with a very comprehensive post on inflation and potential impacts on asset prices.

Morgan Housel explains why real long term thinking is hard

A good collection of Spin-off related links

A great “Post mortem” analysis of an investment (Viacom) with important conclusions

Very good examples on company growth that does not create value 

All Swiss Shares series Part 2 – Nr. 11-20

And the next batch of randomly chosen Swiss stocks, however this time I only identified one potential “watch list” candidate. 

I do have to say that I enjoy this kind of research a lot. After looking now at 20 stocks so far I have to say that reporting quality is generally a lot better than for German companies, independent from the size of the company. 

11. Varia US Proporties

Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. As I am not a fan of listed real estate in any case, I’ll “pass”.

12. Lonza Group

Lonza is a 42,3 bn CHF “large cap” chemical and pharmaceuticals Group. What makes the company interesting is the fact that over the last 10 years, the share price has risen by around 10x:

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Tekmar PLC – Hidden “Off-shore” Champion or Cheap for a reason ?

Introduction:

At a very first glance, Tekmar Plc, a AIM listed UK company looks like a very interesting “hidden Champion”:

The company is active in a very attractive market: their main business is to provide sub sea protection systems for cables with its biggest entity providing this service to the fast growing off-shore wind farm market.

In addition, Tekmar claims to have 75% market share. the combination of a company providing an essential, relatively small ticket item to a large installation with a dominating market share makes many investors water their mouths I guess.

Even more mouthwatering looks their chart from the 2020 annual report (from August 2020):

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Some links

An excellent  write-up about Thomson Reuters and why it could be really interesting

The always excellent Matthew Ball on how a Entertainment Company should look like these days

The case for an extended bull run for “Value Stocks”

Interesting perspective: Crypto as “in-game currency” in the “Great Online Game”

FtAlphaville on the what is going on at Carson Block target Solution 30

If the US wants to increase its share in renewable power, the electrical grid requires a massive upgrade

The LT3000 blog on inflation and other things

 

The new “Energy Transition” Basket Part 1 – (Siemens Energy, Orsted, AKer Horizon)

Background:

As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc.

My current conclusion is that we might have reached a real “Tipping point” towards a significant increase in “Electrification” which in my opinion is driven by a confluence of several factors:

  • The cost of renewable energy (esp. Solar) has been dropping by -90% over the last 10 years and is still dropping further. Solar is (c.p.) now the cheapest available resource of electricity on the planet
  • Battery technology is making leaps and prices are dropping as well quickly, very similar to solar energy
  • A few major electric appliances are already better or almost equal compared to fossil alternatives (Electric heat pumps already now, EVs in very short time, DRI & Electric arc furnaces for steel, Green ammonia etc.) 
  • Money is flowing into the sector like never before, driven by ESG considerations
  • Governments are pushing into the same direction. Europe so far has been leading, but under Biden the US is pushing hard
  • interest rates are low which makes creating new infrastructure cheaper than never before

There remain a lot of challenges, especially the “intermittency” of renewable energy and the current lack of solutions for longer term storage. However, especially in the battery space there is significant progress made. Plus, all the billions now flowing into “Green tech” will create a “Cambrian explosion” of new technologies in a few years time. 

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Some links

The Brooklyn Investor with some interesting aspects from the Berkie AGM

Farnam Street explains why we all need some slack

The “Gig Economy” in the US may end soon

A great explanation what kind of business Investment Banking actually is (Credit Suisse)

The Irish Banking sector has consolidated to only two remaining players

Long read feature on Cal Newport and Digital Minimalism

The Carbon Credit market seems to be in need of an overhaul

 

The “All Swiss Shares” Series Part 1 – Nr. 1-10

Introduction

After the great fun of doing the “All German shares” Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new “All Swiss Shares” series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be a little bit shorter. The reason for choosing Switzerland is that I actually own already two Swiss based companies (Richemont, Zur Rose) and that I think there is an interesting mixture of companies in Switzerland, several of which I have covered over the last 10 years.

Again, mostly for my own entertainment, I will use a random approach in looking at the companies.

One difference to the German series is that I’ll try to better define what I am looking for. In principle, my portfolio comprises three different styles/buckets:

  1. “Long term holdings” – Stocks where I think there is good long term potential. For this group, I require high quality with regard to the business model, leadership and balance sheet
  2. “Value Trades” – Stocks where I think for some specific reasons there is a significant undervaluation that will materialize in a period of up to 3 years. This could be a “sum-of-part” situation, a spin-off, activist involvement or another situation where I think that I can identify the reason for the undervaluation and where I have a different view. Due to the shorter time horizon, the requirements for “quality” are a little bit lower.
  3. “Special situations”  – in my definition, special situations are based on corporate actions (M&A, Squeeze out etc.) where the potential outcomes are clear and the main task is to assess probabilities and an expected value.

 

So now let’s jump into the first 10 stocks. Surprisingly, I found already 4 stocks worth “watching” out of the first batch.

  1. BVZ Holding AG

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Some links

How Solar energy became “insanely cheap”

Interesting deep dive into Nintendo’s strategy

A few insights from Berkie’s annual shareholder meeting

Klement on Investing makes a good case for CO2 certificates

The Amex Black Card looks like a really good deal….if you are rich enough to get it

A very good reminder: Now is the Golden Time for financial scams of all sorts

Good check list on how to avoid Value Traps

 

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