Monthly Archives: November 2017

The South Sea Bubble, the History of Corporations and the Cryptocraze

People who have read my blog for some time know that besides value investing, I am a big fan of historic (and current) asset bubbles.

The South Sea bubble – recap

One of the most interesting historical stock bubbles was clearly the famous “South Sea Bubble” which peaked and collapsed around 1720. Besides the fact that Sir Isaac Newton lost a ton of money in this bubble, there is another interesting aspect of this bubble which is often overlooked:

The underlying construct which enabled this bubble was the invention of the “Business Corporation” which were initially created to gather enough capital for exploiting the colonies in the Netherlands and England. 

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Some links

Why ICOs issued by companies might not be that positive for its shareholders

The Brooklyn Investor has similar thoughts on Buffetts 100 bn cash pile than I had

Reckitt Benckiser might be a high debt low growth “time bomb”

Monish Pabrai’s simple spin-off investing strategy

Nate from Oddball sees very little value these days

Steel Partners Preferreds might be worth a look

Forager observes that animal spirits are back in the mining sector

Some links

Glen Chan with a good summary of the risks with Chinese stocks

Hard times for Bill Ackman – Q3 report of Pershing Square

Will the P/B “factor” ever make a come back ?

15 Questions to ask management of a company (as an analyst).

Virtual Reality E-Sports seem to have some potential

John Kingham has found 3 trustworthy dividend stocks (Admiral)

How to change the culture of a large organisation (Honeywell)




The Naga Group / Nagacoin ICO: “Double Pumping” the Cryptocraze

I have had some posts on Bitcoin and Crypto currencies on the blog before. Overall I find the technology very interesting, but at least for Bitcoin I am not certain about the real value.

Things are though very different for a German company called “The Naga Group”. The company IPOed 5 months ago on July 10th in Germany in the lightly regulated “Scale segment”. Initially, its aim was to specialize in “disruptive Trading technologies”.

The disruptive technology is an App which is the “Tinder of Stock trading”. The product is a “social trading business platform” called Swipestox, trying to earn most of its money with advertising. I have looked up the App on the Google play store and it has been downloaded a 100.000 times which is OK, but not great. Interestingly the newest comment/rating is from beginning of September, so I am not sure how actively this App is used.

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Some links

How Amazon, Google and Facebook created the “Trinet”

Two  interesting special situations: CBS Radio Reverse Morris Trust and VICI properties

Ocera Therapeutics, a Pharma take-over with a Contingent Valur Right (CVR)

L Brands (Victoria’s Secret) looks cheap

An interesting collection of “far off the beaten track” stocks

The Venture Capital sector looks pretty screwed up at the moment

Q&A with Lou Simpson (EX CIO of Geico) (CARS) – Interesting spin-off opportunity ?

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!


logo-cars is a recent (May 31st) spin-off from publishing company Tegna, which itself is a spin-off of the Gannet publishing Group. Interestingly, Gannet/Tegna only bought control of in 2014 for a total value of 1,8 bn USD. – The business & Market is a typical “Online classified” business, meaning that it collects offers of merchandise (in this case cars), aggregates and sorts them and then shows it to as many potential customers as possible.

The economic value of such a “service” is relatively easy to explain: For a potential customer, it saves time because he can look at and compare different offers at one place. For the sellers, such a service is basically an advertising and/or sales channel which ideally reaches many potential customers.

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Some links

Forager thinks that Buffett could/should take over General Electric (GE)

Interesting interview (Podcast) with famous financial author Roger Lowenstein (Buffett, Munger, Fed)

Rick Bookstaber on the current low volatility market 

Risk free rates are at a 800 year low

Will Tesla finally implode ?

A playbook of how the current Crypto Bubble could implode

The “Buffett of Saudi Arabia”  Prince Alwaleed seems to have been arrested