Performance review 9M 2019 – Comment: The “Death of Value Investing” revisited

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In the first 9 months of 2019, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained 8,8% (including dividends, no taxes) against 19.4% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog.

Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows for 9M 2019:

Partners Fund TGV: -2.25%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: +9,1%
Squad European Convictions +9,8%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos +7.5% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen 2,3%
Evermore Global Value  +13,7% (USD)
Greiff Special Situation +2% (est)
Squad Aguja Special Situation +9,8%
Paladin ONE 6,61%

Q3 2019 transactions

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Some links

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Prof. Damodaran on valuing vs. pricing IPO stocks

Will “Value Investing” ever make a come back ?

Interesting statistics on outperfomance of active stock managers (hint: High conviction helps…)

Good Q&A session with Bill Nygren (Oakmark)

Ben Evans thinks that Machine Learning (ML) is the new SQL

Valuesque with 2 good posts: 1) Adjusting for Hyperinflation (Unilever) and 2) Securitization transactions (Schaltbau)

John Kingham on (long term) lease obligations & IFRS 16

All German shares – Part 5

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Again a quick upfront comment: Why did I start that series right now ? I guess it is a combination of bad experience in some foreign stocks (Cars.com, Silver Chef), the expectation of a more economically difficult situation in Germany (which will probably provide some opportunities later on) and curiosity. So far I have to say it is great fun, at least for me.

Nr. 40: Solutiance AG – ISIN: DE0006926504

Another renamed/reactivated company, now something with real etsate management software. 10 mn market cap, around 1 mn sales. “Pass”

Nr. 41: Surteco AG – ISIN: DE0005176903

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Some links

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Ben Thompson on Uber and other “Tech” companies that interface with the real world

Direct Listing vs. IPOs with VC legend Bill Gurley (Podcast)

An update from the Stock Spin-off Investing blog

Fascinating story about “Yuutai Investing” in Japan

Safal Niveshak on the “death of businesses”

The Brooklyn Investor doesn’t think that we are in a stock market bubble

However, FTAlphaville is concerned about the “Big Balance Sheet Economy”

Special situation update: Innogy, Osram, PNE AG, AGROB & Comdirect

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Innogy Tendered Shares

A quick update on this “cheap option play”:  To a small extent this has developed better than I intitially thought as I had mentioned in the comments. My initial expectation would have been a small loss. However, E.On now has increaesd the price for the tendered Innogy shares voluntarily to 37.59 EUR which, inclding the dividend of 1,40 will lead to a small profit (before taxes and cost) . However the ultimate upside, if there is a lawsuit, will be smaller as the E.On shares dropped to 9 EUR and the theoretical value of the tendered shares is now 4.371*9= 39,34 EUR.

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All German Shares – Part 4

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Post number 4 in this series. This tiem a quick upfront remark what I do with the “watch list” that I create out of this: The watch list will be used to actually just watch these shares more actively and maybe follow up with a deeper analysis when time allows. In general I do think there is no time pressure with German shares. Germany has technically entered a recession and a lot of shares are still not cheap.

 

Nr. 30: Centrotec Sustainable AG – ISIN: DE0005407506

A 215 mn EUR market cap company with a very interesting product portfolio, i.e. specializing in energy efficient technologies for buildings. Majority owned by the founder, quite cheap (P/E of 12) and growing. Tailwind from new “climate saving” initiative from the German government which bumped the share price in the last few days. The company unfortunately is not very profitable (EBIT margin ~4-5%) despite the construction boom in its core market Germany.  I have also doubts how long the ccurretn real estate boom in Germany will last. Nevertheless one for the “watch list”

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