Some links

Maynard Peyton with a very extensive deep dive into System1 Plc

There seems to be some correlation between “best places to work” and stock performance

Narcissistic fund managers are bad for fund performance

Marc Rubinstein with an interesting piece on UK Insurance regulation (Solvency II & Infrastructure investments)

“Railroader” seems to be a very interesting book

A nice case study on a Liquidation special Situation (Concorde Camera, 2008)

Another attempt at analyzing skill vs luck for portfolio managers

 

 

 

Some links

Maboussin with a deep dive on market share 

Reading texts on paper seems to be more efficient than reading on a device

Nice write-up on HongKong’s Swire Pacific from Michael Fritzell

Marc Rubinstein makes the case for UK Banks as potentially interesting investment

Interesting pitch for FEMSA from Patient Capital

Insider Ideas thinks that Ocado might be worth a deeper look

Mark Suster thinks private (VC) valuations will need to reset

PANIC JOURNAL – UKRAINE/RUSSIA EDITION PART 4: The new “Freedom Insulation” Basket

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Never trust any anonymous dude on the internet. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!! 

Panic Update:

As to be expected, my last “panic post” marked more or less the (short term) peak in Natural Gas and Electricity prices in Europe. Since then, prices have gone down more than -50% from the peak. Nevertheless, prices are far from normal and sustainable. Governments have already proposed action in the form of intercepting the markets.

In the recent days, I have seen more and more “models” that seem to tell us that Germany/Europe is fine for this Winter and after that everything will be smooth sailing (LNG terminals, French deliveries etc.), despite the Russian completely halting NS1 deliveries last week and not reinstating them based on phony reasons.

I actually started to build a model myself but then decided to focus on the big picture instead. As I argued on Twitter, the one big variable that will determine how Europe is doing will be the temperature.

However, independent how this winter will be, Natural Gas will be a scarce resource in Europe for some years to come. Even in the (low probability) case that there will be a quick end of the Ukraine conflict, Europe will not and cannot go back into the Russian dependency. On the other hand, switching to LNG at acceptable prices will take a few years until enough liquification, gasification and transportation capacity is available.

This recent article in the FT quotes the boss of Shell:

“It may well be that we have a number of winters where we have to somehow find solutions through efficiency savings, through rationing and a very, very quick buildout of alternatives,” he said. “That this is going to be somehow easy, or over, I think is a fantasy that we should put aside.”

Another German language article quotes several Oil and Gas executives that it takes at least 3-4 years until Russian Gas can be fully replaced.

So my base case for the coming 3-5 years will be:  There is not enough Natural Gas (ex Russia) available in Europe and Gas and electricity will remain very expensive in Europe.

The only real option: Decrease Demand

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Special Situation: 3U Holding – Sale of WeClapp Subsidiary with Net cash proceeds > market cap

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Never trust any anonymous dudes on the internet. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

Background:

Readers of my blog know that I like Special situations where a company,  that has been flying under the radar,  (unexpectedly) sells an asset that is worth potentially more than the market cap of the whole company. In these cases, it often takes some time until the market fully realizes what has happened.

Sapec was a good example, Exmar is a recent case that is still ongoing.

3U Holding – Weclapp

3U logo

The current case is a small cap from Germany called 3U Holding. 3U was IPOed in the bubble days of the Dot.com boom in 1999. Other than many of its peers, its core communication business was quite solid. They sold their Communication business in 2007 and since then acted like  mixture of Holding company and Family Office for the founders who own ~34% and effectively control the company.

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Some links

Former “Growth Darling” Saga Partners trying to explain -75% performance in the first 6M 2022

A great check list to identify interesting stocks “off the beaten path”

When Brad Feld, who has written the best book on Venture Capital, offers a free course on this topic, you should sign up.

Time machine: The “Burning Platform” memo of the CEO of Nokia from 2011 (why didn’t I buy Apple and Google back then ?)

Bireme Capital with a deep dive into their Twitter “special situation” investment

Some deep thoughts on when Share buy backs make sense and when not (Autozone, Altice US)

UK households seem to be hit most by high Natural Gas and Energy prices in Europe

Panic Journal – Ukraine/Russia edition part 4: Power & Gas prices, Merit Order and other Ramblings

Background:

With European Gas and Electricity prices trading like “Meme stonks”, it is time for another “panic post”. As always, these posts are mostly for myself in order to better structure my thoughts and educate myself and should not be seen as any kind of advice.

Just to quickly revisit the last post from part 3. One of my predictions back then with regard to the economic impact (unfortunately) aged quite well:

One explanation that I have read is that Russia and Ukraine are only 2% of Global GDP, so a “loss” of these countries is no big deal. Personally, I do think that this is not a very useful number. Russian oil and gas is powering a significant amount of European (and Global) GDP. A supply disruption from Russian oil and gas would impact a much larger share of GDP globally and might make Covid-19 supply chain disruption like a toddler party.

Turmoil in European Gas and Electricity markets:

The fact that European Gas and electricity markets face absolute mayhem has now clearly reached the headlines. I have stolen two Charts from Twitter(@Schuldensuehner), one showing electricity prices until yesterday, and one natural gas:

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Book review: “The Alchemy of Air” – Thomas Hager

Alchemy 2

The subtitle of this book summarizes the content quite nicely: “A Jewish Genius, a Doomed Tycoon, and the Scientific Discovery That Fed the World but Fueled the Rise of Hitler”.

Synthetic fertilizer is one of these inventions that profoundly changed the path of humanity, but is being rarely talked about. Before synthetic fertilizer, farmers fertilized the” old way”, using animal manure,crop rotation etc. The problem with this approach is that the land can only yield so much net of what these animals need to eat themselves. The main issue is that plants need Nitrogen in a form that naturally is not so easy to come by and is used up if agriculture is intensified. Although Nitrogen is the most abundant element on Earth (78% of the Atmosphere), plants need Nitrogen in a different form and only a few of them (peas, Soy) can produce it themselves.

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Play Magnus – Chess.com Take-over or take under ? –> Shout out for Experts on Norwegian Take over laws !!

Background:

Play Magnus is a stock some of my readers my remember. I initially invested (speculated) in October 2020 at 16,5 NOK per share, but sold quickly after my initial timing was really bad with a loss of around -20%.

I then bought again in November 2020 at a higher price (~17 NOKs) . I then managed to sell around 1/3 of the position close to the high at 38 NOKs per share. This year, i sold the remainder of the position shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine to manage portfolio volatility. Overall, I made 0,5% on the whole trade (pre taxes, pre costs) which clearly shows that my trading skills are not very good.

I still followed the stock as I liked the business, the management team and thought that at some point in time this could be interesting. Actually I just talked this Monday with a friend that at prices below 10 NOK, the stock looks interesting.

The stock chart shows how volatile the ride from Play Magnus was since its IPO:

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All Danish Shares part 10 – Nr. 91-100

And on we go after a short Summer Break with 10 more, randomly selected Danish stocks. This time, only one stock managed it onto the watch list. Only 79 more stocks to go to “finish off” Denmark from here. Enjoy !!

91. Erria 

Erria is a tiny, 9 mn EUR market cap offshore and shipping service company. They do have some business and made a very small profit in 2021. Nevertheless, this one seem to be too small to bother. “Pass”.

92. DSV A/S

DSV is a 38,3 bn EUR market cap ” transport and logistics company, offering transport services worldwide by road, air, sea, and train, with the bulk of its activities coming from its European trucking network and airfreight and sea freight forwarding businesses. ” One can actually see a lot of DSV trucks on German high- and freeways.

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Some links

Bireme Capital with a nice “post mortem” on their Tencent Music investment

Vitaly Katsenelson explains why he invested into Uber

Symmetry with a deep dive on GiG Media from Sweden

Interesting deep dive into bankrupt Crypto Fund Three Arrows Capital and its founders

Fred Wilson (AVC) summarizes his expectations for the Ethereum “Merge” towards Proof-of-Stake

Air Conditioning technology seems to be ripe for disruption

Timeless advice from Charlie Ellis for “Investing Amateurs”

 

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