Some links

Deep thoughts about the recent strategy change at Zillow

Prof. Damodaran has a look at Google. And Google has screwed up messaging again.

A more pesimistic view on the future of tech stocks

Forager on the disadvantage of size in fund management and their thesis on Auto Trader (UK)

What Hugh Hendry is doing these days after closing his Hedge Fund

Long Term Value Blog with a portfolio update

The Global Stock Picking blog likes Rezidor Hotel Group

Some links

Deep thoughts from  (and about) the founder of Constellation Software

Forager on the potential long term downsides of large moats

Ben from Wertart with a deep dive into Sarine Technologies

 

At USG, Buffett goes somehow activist by teaming up with German Knauf against the Board

Express Scripts looks like a potentially interesting Special Situation

Red Corner blog is back with a write-up on CVR Partners

Prof. Damodaran updates his Facebook valuation

Performance review Q1 2018

Performance Q1 2018:

In Q1 2018, the Value & Opportunity portfolio lost -1,38% (including dividends, no taxes) against -3,90% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)).

Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in Q1 2018:

Partners Fund TGV: -10,79% 
Profitlich/Schmidlin: -4,45%
Squad European Convictions +0,19%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos -1,40% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -0,47%
Evermore Global Value -3,03%
Greiff Special Situation +0,65%
Squad Aguja Special Situation -5,38%
Paladin One +0,57%

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Homework: Electrica SA update

Electrica is the only remaining “Emerging Market” stock in my portfolio. I bought the stock in December 2014 and now after 3 year and some months it maybe time to assess how the situation looks against my initial expectations.

Including dividends, the stock is up ~18% in total since then, in my portfolio however the stock is flat because I bought more of Electrica at higher prices. Compared to a +53% performance of the portfolio in the same period, the stock is clearly a underperformer and the question is clearly if I should keep the stock.

My initial thesis relied on the following assumptions:

  • the stock was cheap for a grid company with guaranteed returns on invested capital
  • Romania was supposed to grow significantly and Electrica as well
  • As a former Government owned company, I expected significant cost savings potential
  • I had expected After Tax / After minority Earnings of around 442 mn RON in 2017

What happened ?

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The Value and Opportunity “All Time Flop 10”

During my Silver Chef “Post mortem” some days ago, I decided to look at the 10 biggest losses I made since I started the blog in order to check if I have actually learned from mistakes.

These were the (by absolute performance) 10 worst investments in the 7+ years of Value and Opportunity:

10. Medtronic -18,93% (2011)

Medtronic was one of the initial portfolio investments. I kicked them out in August 2011 as I was not very comfortable owning US large caps and I never deeply looked into the company myself. Medtronic since then outperformed the S&P 5000 IN USD terms (~17,1% p.a. vs. 15.3%) or ~ 233% in EUR terms. This is slightly better than my portfolio which made around 215% in the same period.

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