Category Archives: Uncategorized

Some links

Good “all around post” from the Brooklyn Investor on Jamie Dimon, Steven Shcarzmann, the market and more

Greenwood Investors Q3 letter on the difference between “tourists and pubs”

Prf. Damodaran on WeWork and Softbank

A good portrait of the LT3000 investment blog

The PeridotCapitalist blog answers some questions from readers

Ben Thompson on the “Google Squeeze” (Expedia, TripAdvisor)

An interesting article on holding stocks for too long

Some links

Prof. Damodaran on valuing vs. pricing IPO stocks

Will “Value Investing” ever make a come back ?

Interesting statistics on outperfomance of active stock managers (hint: High conviction helps…)

Good Q&A session with Bill Nygren (Oakmark)

Ben Evans thinks that Machine Learning (ML) is the new SQL

Valuesque with 2 good posts: 1) Adjusting for Hyperinflation (Unilever) and 2) Securitization transactions (Schaltbau)

John Kingham on (long term) lease obligations & IFRS 16

Special situation update: Innogy, Osram, PNE AG, AGROB & Comdirect

Innogy Tendered Shares

A quick update on this “cheap option play”:  To a small extent this has developed better than I intitially thought as I had mentioned in the comments. My initial expectation would have been a small loss. However, E.On now has increaesd the price for the tendered Innogy shares voluntarily to 37.59 EUR which, inclding the dividend of 1,40 will lead to a small profit (before taxes and cost) . However the ultimate upside, if there is a lawsuit, will be smaller as the E.On shares dropped to 9 EUR and the theoretical value of the tendered shares is now 4.371*9= 39,34 EUR.

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All German Shares – Part 4

Post number 4 in this series. This tiem a quick upfront remark what I do with the “watch list” that I create out of this: The watch list will be used to actually just watch these shares more actively and maybe follow up with a deeper analysis when time allows. In general I do think there is no time pressure with German shares. Germany has technically entered a recession and a lot of shares are still not cheap.

 

Nr. 30: Centrotec Sustainable AG – ISIN: DE0005407506

A 215 mn EUR market cap company with a very interesting product portfolio, i.e. specializing in energy efficient technologies for buildings. Majority owned by the founder, quite cheap (P/E of 12) and growing. Tailwind from new “climate saving” initiative from the German government which bumped the share price in the last few days. The company unfortunately is not very profitable (EBIT margin ~4-5%) despite the construction boom in its core market Germany.  I have also doubts how long the ccurretn real estate boom in Germany will last. Nevertheless one for the “watch list”

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Some links

Prof. Damodaran with a deep dive into WeWork

Woodford’s problems might lead to some value opportunities in Tech (search result, H/T Monevator)

A good reminder that value investing works over the long term because it often doesn’t work in between

Interesting post on banking (and German Banks) from Bruce Packard

VC “legend” Fred Wilson on the merit of positive Cash Flows

A16Z on how even successful platforms are at risks to be “unbundled” into new verticals

Stitch Fix looks like an interesting company / Stock

Quick update: Osram Special situation

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOU OWN RESEARCH.

Ouch, another day, another problem. Yesterday, one of my Special situation stocks Osram lost around -7%.

What happened: The largest shareholder  Allianz Global Investors (AGI) announced that they do not support the offer as they consider the price of 35 EUR per share as too low.

A few observations from my side:

  1. AGI had purchased more Osram shares in the past few months. Beginning in July they announced that they crossed the 10% threshold
  2. However in their press release they talk about >9% stake so they have sold shares in the past 4 weeks, clearly at a price of lower than 35 EUR. So while AGI is critisizing Osram managment for not believing in their company, AGI (or parts of them) also seems to have some problems in believing their own investment thesis.
  3. The press release reads like a marketing pitch for their “active management approach” with high fees which clearly is under threat from passive startegies
  4. They state that “at the moment they would not accept the offer” which in my opinion is not a super hard statement and we are relatively early in the acceptance period
  5. Although AGI states that that they are investors since the initial listing (which is natural if you had owned Siemens shares which they surely had), in various articles it has been mentioned that AGI’s average purchase price is much higher than the 35 EUR offered as they seemd to have increased their position significantly when the stock still went up.
  6. As the basis for their current opinion they use an “independent fairness opinion”. Why do they need that ?

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