Category Archives: Uncategorized

German Startups Group KGaA – Where Deep Value meets Venture Capital

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Please do your own research !!!

Management summary:

Despite many issues in the past, I do think that German Startups Group, a stock listed VC investment vehicle, represents an interesting “deep value” situation, where one can buy 1 EUR of underlying value for less than 50 cents. A lot of things have changed into the right direction and there is the chance for some (soft) catalysts in the relatively near future. On the other hand, the unusual corporate structure in combination with a small market cap (EUR 15mn) and relatively illiquid trading also clearly makes it a risky investment.

“Never say never”

Some of my readers will ask: What did make my opinion change on this ?

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Some links

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A list of 52 interesting and surprising (general) facts

A great series on TV/Media companies at YetAnotherValueblog: Intro, part 1 -broadcasters, part 2 – networks, part 3 – sports rights

2019 seems to be a depressing year for active fund management

GreenWood on changing investment thesis and why they still like TripAdvisor

The best stock market in 2019 so far is ….Russia !!!

Q3 Letterfrom the Bireme Fundamental Value fund

The “Chinese tesla” Nio is in deep trouble

 

Book review: “The Man who solved the Market” – Greg Zuckerman

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RenTech

This is another book that I have been waiting for to read for some time. Jim Simons is maybe not a household name in investing, but his Renaissance Technology fund (Rentech) has clearly on of the best track record of any investment vehicle in recorded history. However, other than some other famous investors, Rentech was (and still is) so secretive that hardly anyone had a clue how he/they did it.

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Some links

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Good “all around post” from the Brooklyn Investor on Jamie Dimon, Steven Shcarzmann, the market and more

Greenwood Investors Q3 letter on the difference between “tourists and pubs”

Prf. Damodaran on WeWork and Softbank

A good portrait of the LT3000 investment blog

The PeridotCapitalist blog answers some questions from readers

Ben Thompson on the “Google Squeeze” (Expedia, TripAdvisor)

An interesting article on holding stocks for too long

Some links

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Prof. Damodaran on valuing vs. pricing IPO stocks

Will “Value Investing” ever make a come back ?

Interesting statistics on outperfomance of active stock managers (hint: High conviction helps…)

Good Q&A session with Bill Nygren (Oakmark)

Ben Evans thinks that Machine Learning (ML) is the new SQL

Valuesque with 2 good posts: 1) Adjusting for Hyperinflation (Unilever) and 2) Securitization transactions (Schaltbau)

John Kingham on (long term) lease obligations & IFRS 16

Special situation update: Innogy, Osram, PNE AG, AGROB & Comdirect

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Innogy Tendered Shares

A quick update on this “cheap option play”:  To a small extent this has developed better than I intitially thought as I had mentioned in the comments. My initial expectation would have been a small loss. However, E.On now has increaesd the price for the tendered Innogy shares voluntarily to 37.59 EUR which, inclding the dividend of 1,40 will lead to a small profit (before taxes and cost) . However the ultimate upside, if there is a lawsuit, will be smaller as the E.On shares dropped to 9 EUR and the theoretical value of the tendered shares is now 4.371*9= 39,34 EUR.

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All German Shares – Part 4

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Post number 4 in this series. This tiem a quick upfront remark what I do with the “watch list” that I create out of this: The watch list will be used to actually just watch these shares more actively and maybe follow up with a deeper analysis when time allows. In general I do think there is no time pressure with German shares. Germany has technically entered a recession and a lot of shares are still not cheap.

 

Nr. 30: Centrotec Sustainable AG – ISIN: DE0005407506

A 215 mn EUR market cap company with a very interesting product portfolio, i.e. specializing in energy efficient technologies for buildings. Majority owned by the founder, quite cheap (P/E of 12) and growing. Tailwind from new “climate saving” initiative from the German government which bumped the share price in the last few days. The company unfortunately is not very profitable (EBIT margin ~4-5%) despite the construction boom in its core market Germany.  I have also doubts how long the ccurretn real estate boom in Germany will last. Nevertheless one for the “watch list”

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