Exmar was a special situation that I entered in August, following a surprising significant asset sale (a LNG liquification platform called “Tango”)
Yesterday evening, Exmar reported Q3 numbers including the final numbers on the ENI transaction. A few points that I found important:
- Cash proceeds for the ENI transaction were slightly higher (+13 mn) compared to my base case
- Net cash at company level however was -23 mn lower than I had calculated
- Interestingly, Exmar only reported net cash at Group level, not gross cash at Holding level
- The remaining core LPG business seems to do quite well, with sales up ~6% and EBIT up ~50%
- They didn’t provide explicit number on how much they earn with the remaining regasification unit that is operating since August. The earnings of the “infrastructure” segment are really hard to read
- Next week, there will be an extraordinary shareholder meeting declaring a 0,95 EUR dividend per share
The share price has done quite well. At the time of writing, Exmar traded at 10,20 EUR per share, an increase of almost exactly 1/3 vs. when I entered the position and even better in relative terms:
Slowly we are reaching the end of my Journey through Denmark. Another 10 randomly selected stocks, this time yielding two “watch” candidates. Only 48 now outstanding. Enjoy !!!
121. Strategic Investments A/S
Strategic Investments is a 52 mn EUR market cap investment vehicle that invests into securities, private equity and real estate. Investor relations is in Danish only. Looking at the share price, there doesn’t seem to happen a lot of value creation here. “Pass”.
122. Copyright Agent
Copyright Agent is a 2 mn EUR market company that “is a legal-tech company that helps professional content creators to ensure their original work against misuse by other companies.” This 2021 IPO is actually growing quite fast, but losses are growing faster with an EBIT margin of -50%. Cash at June 30th at the current burn rate only lasts until year end 2022, so capital increase will be coming soon (or bankruptcy). “Pass”.
Gyldendal is a 125 mn EUR market cap book publisher and operator of book stores. After doing nothing for 20 years, the Stock saw some interesting price action in 2021 which has now mostly reversed:
The subtitle of this book summarizes the content quite nicely: “
Synthetic fertilizer is one of these inventions that profoundly changed the path of humanity, but is being rarely talked about. Before synthetic fertilizer, farmers fertilized the” old way”, using animal manure,crop rotation etc. The problem with this approach is that the land can only yield so much net of what these animals need to eat themselves. The main issue is that plants need Nitrogen in a form that naturally is not so easy to come by and is used up if agriculture is intensified. Although Nitrogen is the most abundant element on Earth (78% of the Atmosphere), plants need Nitrogen in a different form and only a few of them (peas, Soy) can produce it themselves.
Roughly two years after the beginning of the Pandemic, a lot of people thought that we would now get slowly back to our “normal lives” and chill out. Until Mr. Putin decided that he needs to protect himself by invading Ukraine.
As in the original Panic Journal series, these posts are more “self therapy” than anything else, so please excuse me any irrelevant ramblings.
Maybe one upfront remark: I am an investor, not a political expert. So I don’t know what will happen and speculating about it will not add any value. However one thing is clear: War is always a catastrophe, not justified by anything and in the end, everyone is a loser (or dead). Everyone will pay a price, someway or another.
For good measure, I will add some general remarks about Putin and Ukraine at the end.
Russian stocks: No, no and again no