Category Archives: Bilanzanalyse

FitBit (FIT) follow up: Enough upside to justify the risk ?

DISCLAIMER
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and don’t follow any anonymous bloggers.

Let’s continue with this nice “anti Buffett” stock from my post last week.

The people / founders

FitBit’s original founders from 2007, James Park and Eric Friedman are still on board.

Interestingly, although both ar only 41 years old, FitBit was the third company they founded together.

The other companies were Windup Labs, a photo sharing company they sold in 2005 and Epesi, a B2B software company that didn’t work out.

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Another return of the Watch Series: FitBit (FIT) – dead horse or exciting pivot ?

Watches again…..

Although I wrote a lot about Watch companies over the past few years (Swatch part 1, Swatch part 2, Hengdeli, Fossil part 1, Fossil part 2, Movado, Richemont), no investment came out of it. However I had a lot of fun researching these companies so it was time well spent.

When I initiated the series in 3 years ago, Smart Watches were a big thing and especially the Apple Watch was perceived to be the “Swiss Watch” killer, which, as we know now didn’t happen as they seem to coexist quite well.

Besides Smart Watches, Fitness Trackers were the “hot shit” and especially VC backed FitBit that IPOed in 2015 was taking oer the world.

This chart shows Fitbit against Fossil (blue)  and Richemont (green) and we can clearly see who had staying power and who not:

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SIAS SpA – Collateral damage ?

SIAS is an Italian motorway operator that I bought at the height of the “Euro crisis” in 2012 and sold 2 year later with a nice profit of more than 100% including a special dividend. 

Looking at the long-term chart, selling in mid 2014 was not such a bad decision at least for the next 3 years (although in general my timing skills are clearly far below average):

sias

It took more than 3 years to surpass this level but then interestingly the stock more than doubled within a few months.

Looking at the aggregated numbers we can see an interesting pattern:

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DormaKaba (ISIN CH0011795959): Cheap enough after a -30% drop ?

In my initial post for Dom Security, I lined out why the Commercial Lock business is very attractive in my opinion. As a result, most businesses enjoy nice margins.

Kaba, the Swiss company was always the number 3 with some distance to market leader Assa Abbloy and allegion.

However in 2015 Kaba finally managed to merge with he  German family owned Dorma in order become a much larger and diversified Group. In theory Dorma was a great fit for Kaba as they were specializing more in building access systems which should compliment Kaba’s locking systems nicely.

Looking at the stock price, investors liked the merger until end of last year:

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Criteo SA (NASDAQ: Cheap AdTech Champion or evil Online Stalker ?

The company:

Criteo Logo

Criteo is one of the few Non-US success stories in the Tech sector. Criteo was founded in France in 2005 and quickly became one of the leading “Adtech” companies in the world. Criteo successfully IPOed 2013 on the NAsdaq and quickly reached a market cap of more than 3 bn USD.

The business:

Criteo is an “Adtech” company. What it does is the following: It is primarily  a tech version of the classical Advertising Agencies: Clients use Criteo to maximise the value of their online ad dollars spent which should turn into as many clicks and sales dollars as possible.

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Metro update: Bad, but may be not so bad at all ?

A quick update on the Metro case. This is how I ended the Metro post from a few days ago:

For me, it is currently too early to do something. It is not clear to me if the stock price has overreacted or if more trouble is coming along especially from Russia.

Selling now would be clearly an uninformed decision as well as buying more. The next step will be the release of the 6M report next week. I think I will then still wait and see how Russia develops. If, for instance there would be a further profit warning because of Russia, then this would be a clear sell signal.

So let’s quickly check out the half-year report.

The good:

  • Real, the German Supermarket chain is doing batter than last year. However the improvement in Q2 was smaller than in Q1 and might have been aided by early Easter holidays
  • Delivery & Real Online do well, but are small
  • Asia stable despite negative FX impact

The bad:

  • Metro Germany is still losing money
  • Eastern Europe less profitable despite good growth
  • FCF Q2 lower by -130 mn (reason given: Store openings)
  • Restructuring charges at Real of up to -40 mn EUR (over 2 years if I understood correctly)

The ugly:

  • EBITDA in Russia in Q2 dropped -50%, Like for like sales by almost -9%

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