And again 25 more randomly selected German shares with short analysis for each one. This time, seven (!!!) candidated were worth “wacthing”.
Maybe one remark: I asked last time for suggestions for the next series. however before I move on, I will also need to thin down the watch list to an amount that I can handle going forward. At the moment, the extended watch list comprises 141 (!!) stocks which I want to slim down to something like 25 or so.
676. mwb fairtrade Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
mwb is a 33 mn EUR market cap securities trading company. For some reasons, the stock price doubled in 2020, mabye a result of overall trading activity. As I do not undertand their business model, I’ll “pass”.
677. Bayerische Motorenwerke AG
BMW is clearly one of the most famous German brands and one of the most successful car manufacturers in the world. With a market cap of ~39 bn USD, it is valued at a fraction of Tesla and the stock price is on a pretty long lasting downtrend:
Time flies, it’s more than a month since the last posting of this series. So another 25 randomly selected German stocks. Despite the usual duds, the dices this time brought up 6 stocks that I found in principle worth watching.
With “only” around 100 stocks left, I need to think about another market/area that I will cover in this systematic way. Suggestions highly welcome !
651. IFA Hotel & Touristik AG
IFA is a 242 mn EUR market cap company that has rarity value: I think it is the only remaining listed German stock that represents a “Hotel pure play”. However there are a few specialties to consider: The company is majority owned by the Spanish Lopesan Group. Lopesan did a lot of related party transactions with other Lopesan entities and IFA did a couple of capital increases without real necessity.
So far, there doesn’t seem to be any indication that Lopesan has screwed minorities. Some of the “Trades” were actually quite profitabel. Nevertheless, the stock is on a 2 years downtrend that just accelerated due to Covid-19:
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and never believe anything from anonymous bloggers !!!!
A first a quick quick recap on what happened since the last post.
Friday’s written statement from Grenke pre press/analyst was actually pretty lame. I think they made clear that the money laundering and Ponzi issue were indeed minor issues but they didn’t shed any more light on the whole CTP issue.
Unfortunately I missed the press/analyst call. From what I have heard there was nothing new.
A quite surprising statement from Grenke on Monday was more substantial. All past M&A transaction with Franchises will be checked by an independent auditor, Grenke AG will have the option to buy the existing non-consolidated franchises and Wolfgan Grenke will (temporarily) step down from the Supervisory Board. It is also mentioned, that in the future, Grenke AG will fund new franchises.
Long time readers of my blog know that I covered Grenke a while back and unfortunately invested instead in what I thought was the “Australian Grenke” with a pretty bad outcome.
Now Viceroy Research came out with a blazing short attack on Grenke. Viceroy seems to be the same guy that released the now famous “Zatarra Report” on Wirecard in 2016.
This post is a first attempt to look at the allegations in order to find out if they are true and how severe they potentially could be. At the time of writing, Grenke is down more ~ -20% and close to the lows from March.
1. Non disclosed related party transactions
Another week, another 25 randomly selected German shares. This time, I only found 3 of them to be interesting, however one stock became the biggest position in my German basket yet.
626.Pommersche Provinzial-Zuckersiederei AG
Pommersche is a 2.3 mn market cap company that is very illiquid and only releases very intransparent information. “Pass”.
627. Netfonds AG
Netfonds AG is a 63 mn EUR market cap company that could describe itself as a “Fintech” if they wanted. The company listed directly (no IPO) in 2018 and at first struggled:
InterActice Corp (IAC) is a company I had on my list for a long time but for whatever reason I never managed to look at them in more detail. Over the past few weeks I read in several quarterly reports of good funds that they had invested, so I decided to look at least a little bit deeper this time.
Founder/ Chairman Barry Diller
InterActive is the creation of Barry Diller, who is now 78 Years old. He had a very interesting career. As a media executive, among other things, he created Fox Network, and mentored media executives such as Michael Eisner (ex CEO of Disney).
He took control of IAC in 1995 and finally bought out “Cable Cowboy” John Malone in 2010. The relationship with Malone was long but not always without issues.
After a 4 week break, a new batch of 25 randomly selected German shares. Seven of them I found worth “watching”, although none of them with super high priority. And only 200 more stocks to go 😉
551. Pfeiffer Vacuum AG
Pfeiffer is a 1.7 bn company that specializes in vacuum technology and especially vacuum pumps. the stock price recovered quickly after the crisis despite a pretty disappointing 2019 and is still within the long term growth path:
As promised last time, the follow up to the follow up. Let’s look at a few other “actors” in this developing crime story.
A few updates:
Yesterday, the German authorities started searching offices and private homesa second time with a big team of over 50 people. The new CEO in a feature story of Manager Magazin seems to have found out on his first day that the fraud started at least 5 years ago. After the crazy
idiot speculator orgy the last two days, the stock seems to approach back its intrinsic value of 0,00 EUR per share.
The local newspaper SZ “discovered” that the escrow accounts were not the only fraud and and a lot of well known clients & cooperation partners leave the sinking ship rapidly, for instance Aldi Süd, Allianz and Softbank.
My new prediction is that not only the stock is a zero but all debt at TopCo level is essentially worthless.
There is also a very good interview with Dan McCrum on finanz-szene.de which covers a lot of aspects that I have been writing about. Most interestingly, McCrum promises to “tell the bigger story”……
The German Regulator BAFIN and what went wrong there
Another batch of 25 randomly selected German stocks. This time with some quite interesting or even strange underlying businesses. Five candidates are worth “watching”.
526. VTG AG
VTG is a 1.1 bn market cap company that is renting out/ leasing railway cars and was taken over by a Morgan Stanley infrastructure fund in 2018 at 53 EUR/share. The company has been de-listed and is trading only on the “Pink sheets”. Interestingly the stock price suffered after the crisis but has recovered in the past weeks as well:
As mentioned in the comments on the previous post, I sold my Interactive Broker stocks. Why ? Mainly because of the following reasons:
- although I still think that it is a very good company, I reconsidered some of my assumptions after reading the “Chuck” Schwab autobiography
- Despite the fact that the Covid-19 crisis seems to have driven an increase in new accounts and trading commissions, the long term effects of lower interest rates (and margins) will be significant as interest margins are the main driver of profitability in the mid- to long term. My current scenario is that interest rates will remain very low even in the US for a very long time.