Monthly Archives: July 2017

Spin-off/IPO updates: Metro/Ceconomy, Brighthouse Financial, ALD SA

Metro/Ceconomy

I had briefly written about the Metro/Ceconomy Spin-off in January. After some legal hassles, the spin-off took place last week last.

This is what I wrote back then:

With 327 mn shares outstanding, this would translate into ~6,20 EUR per share as a lower bound value for Ceconomy under my (very rough assumptions).

It think at or below this price, Ceconomy could be an interesting “Ugly duck” spin-off investment.

Interestingly, Ceconomy had a very good start, opening around 9,40 EUR and has gone above 10 EUR per share, far above my buying threshold.

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Some links

Good post from 25iq on how to value subscription based businesses

Don’t miss: Barry Ritholtz interviews Ed Thorp

By coincidence I also found this interview with Ed Thorp’s initial partner Jay Regan

Some thoughts on Mining stocks from Forager

What’s next for the Asset Management industry ?

Patience is a potentially big competitive advantage for investors

Vomiting (among others) is  a big problem for Robo taxis

Special situation: Whole Foods (WFM) – “free options” anyone ?

A few days ago, Amazon famously announced to take over Whole Foods Market for 42 USD per share (representing a premium of around 27%).

Markets enthusiastically welcomed this move from Amazon, with the Amazon share jumping almost 4% or ~13 bn USD, which coincidently was almost equal to the deal amount.

Whole Foods itself was “under siege” from activist investor Jana which had built up a 9% stake in the company. Just 2 days before the takeover, Whole Foods CEO called Jana “greedy bastards” indicating that he was not happy having such a shareholder.

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Performance review 6M 2017 – Comment “Resisting the Siren’s songs”

Perfomance 6M 2017:

In the first 6 months of 2017, the blog portfolio gained +16,0% (including dividends, no taxes) against 9,28% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)). Since inception, the score is now +174,6% vs. 89,4% for the benchmark. The full details (and graph) as always on the performance page.

Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in 6M 2017:

Partners Fund TGV: +10,88% 
Profitlich/Schmidlin: +6,04%
Squad European Convictions +17,65%
Squad Aguja +9,48%

Ennismore European Smaller Cos 1,87% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen +10,24%
Evermore Global Value +2,22%
Greiff Special Situation +8,55%

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Special Situation Updates: Actelion/Idorsia, Gagfah, SAPEC & Stada

A lot has happened over the last few weeks for my 4 largest special situation investments:

Actelion / Idorsia

The original Actelion idea was very simple: Buy an M&A target at a small discount which is relatively safe and get something (the Idorsia spin-off) extra which no one seemed to have noticed.

Although the case played out exactly as I thought and Idorsia even seems to be worth more than I assumed, I only made around +4% on it. Not bad for around 5 months but not great either.

Looking back I think I made 3 mistakes:

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