Category Archives: Valuation

All German Shares Part 25 (Nr. 526-550)

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Another batch of 25 randomly selected German stocks. This time with some quite interesting or even strange underlying businesses. Five candidates are worth “watching”.

526. VTG AG

VTG is a 1.1 bn market cap company that is renting out/ leasing railway cars and was taken over by a Morgan Stanley infrastructure fund in 2018 at 53 EUR/share. The company has been de-listed and is trading only on the “Pink sheets”. Interestingly the stock price suffered after the crisis but has recovered in the past weeks as well:

VTG upd

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Agfa Gevaert (ISIN BE0003755692) -An Ugly Duck with some Golden Eggs in its nest ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

Intro

Agfa-Gevaert was on my research list for some time now. Fellow blogger Undervalued Shares than triggered my renewed interest with their post from a few days ago and one of my best “Special situations” ideas ever was a Belgian company (Sapec).

I’ll try to summarize the part of the post that deals with Agfa:

  • Active Ownership, a relatively new but successful German activist fund (Stada) has build up a position (~14%] and board membership (actually the Chairman) in Agfa Gevaert, the traditional German-Belgian film / imaging company
  • Despite having some interesting assets, Agfa didn’t create shareholder value over a long time
  • opaque reporting and a 1 bn EUR pension liability made it unattractive to stock market investors
  • In 2020, Agfa managed to sell part of its Healthcare IT segment for 975 mn EUR
  • Initially, the stock went up to ~5 EUR based on the first info on the sale but hasn’t fully recovered yet

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All German Shares – Part 11 (Nr. 176-200)

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New year, same series. This time the 25 stocks contain 5 watch list candidates. At 200 stocks I have managed now to cover already 25% of the universe.

176. Puma SE

Puma SE, the iconic German sportswear brand founded by the brother of Adi Dassler (Adidas) is a very interesting case. The now 10 bn EUR market company was one of the real hot growth stocks in the 90ies early 2000s, then nothing happened for a long time as we can see in the chart:

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System1 (ISIN B00B1GVQH21) – Warren Buffett “Collateral Damage” or Structural Headwinds ?

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System1 (or under its old name Braijuicer) is a good example for a stock where it didn’t pay off to hold if we look at the chart:

system1

I had looked briefly at them when Ben from Wertart bought them in early 2016 but back then didn’t take the time understand what the company was all about. After the huge drop I decided to have a deeper lok at the company.

The business

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Performance review Q1 2018

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Performance Q1 2018:

In Q1 2018, the Value & Opportunity portfolio lost -1,38% (including dividends, no taxes) against -3,90% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)).

Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in Q1 2018:

Partners Fund TGV: -10,79% 
Profitlich/Schmidlin: -4,45%
Squad European Convictions +0,19%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos -1,40% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -0,47%
Evermore Global Value -3,03%
Greiff Special Situation +0,65%
Squad Aguja Special Situation -5,38%
Paladin One +0,57%

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Boiron SA (ISIN FR0000061129) – Boring enough to invest ?

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It’s no secret that I like French family run companies. TFF Group, G. Perrier, Installux, Dom Security are just the main examples of these kind of companies.

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Boiron SA is a French company which Bloomberg lists as “Specialty Pharmaceutical” company. Although “Specialty Pharma” is not exactly what they do. in fact, Boiron SA ist the only listed company that I know that exclusively produces and sells Homeopathic “pharmaceutical” products. The call themselves “World leader” of this field.

A few words on Homeopathy

From Wikipedia:

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ALD SA (ISIN FR0013258662) – Cheap growth stock or potential Diesel road kill ?

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Background:

As mentioned a few days ago, ALD SA has been IPOed by parent SocGen on June 16th. SocGen sold ~23% of the stock and remains majority shareholder. The first question of course is: why did they do this ?

The official reason was the following:

The IPO confirms the strategic nature of ALD within Societe Generale group. It will allow ALD to accelerate its development and become a leader in a rapidly changing mobility space.

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Novo Nordisk (DK0060534915)- What now ?

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When I looked at Novo Nordisk 3 months ago, I found the stock too expensive at 315 DKK/share. That was my summary back then:

What could make the stock interesting again ?

Well, that’s simple: Either a lower stock price or higher growth. Maybe management has low-balled growth ? Who knows. Maybe the market over reacts if the next quarters don’t look that good ? According to Bloomberg, analysts officially still expect double-digit earnings per share growth well into 2019. Even adjusting for share buy backs, this will be difficult to achieve based on the growth rates communicated by management.

For me, the stock would become more interesting at around 250 DKK under the current growth assumptions. I think I would also like to see more negative comments from analysts.

With the stock now trading at ~229 DKK, it is clearly necessary to revisit the stock again.

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