Category Archives: Valuation

ALD SA (ISIN FR0013258662) – Cheap growth stock or potential Diesel road kill ?

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Background:

As mentioned a few days ago, ALD SA has been IPOed by parent SocGen on June 16th. SocGen sold ~23% of the stock and remains majority shareholder. The first question of course is: why did they do this ?

The official reason was the following:

The IPO confirms the strategic nature of ALD within Societe Generale group. It will allow ALD to accelerate its development and become a leader in a rapidly changing mobility space.

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Novo Nordisk (DK0060534915)- What now ?

When I looked at Novo Nordisk 3 months ago, I found the stock too expensive at 315 DKK/share. That was my summary back then:

What could make the stock interesting again ?

Well, that’s simple: Either a lower stock price or higher growth. Maybe management has low-balled growth ? Who knows. Maybe the market over reacts if the next quarters don’t look that good ? According to Bloomberg, analysts officially still expect double-digit earnings per share growth well into 2019. Even adjusting for share buy backs, this will be difficult to achieve based on the growth rates communicated by management.

For me, the stock would become more interesting at around 250 DKK under the current growth assumptions. I think I would also like to see more negative comments from analysts.

With the stock now trading at ~229 DKK, it is clearly necessary to revisit the stock again.

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