Category Archives: Valuation

System1 (ISIN B00B1GVQH21) – Warren Buffett “Collateral Damage” or Structural Headwinds ?

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System1 (or under its old name Braijuicer) is a good example for a stock where it didn’t pay off to hold if we look at the chart:

system1

I had looked briefly at them when Ben from Wertart bought them in early 2016 but back then didn’t take the time understand what the company was all about. After the huge drop I decided to have a deeper lok at the company.

The business

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Performance review Q1 2018

Performance Q1 2018:

In Q1 2018, the Value & Opportunity portfolio lost -1,38% (including dividends, no taxes) against -3,90% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)).

Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in Q1 2018:

Partners Fund TGV: -10,79% 
Profitlich/Schmidlin: -4,45%
Squad European Convictions +0,19%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos -1,40% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -0,47%
Evermore Global Value -3,03%
Greiff Special Situation +0,65%
Squad Aguja Special Situation -5,38%
Paladin One +0,57%

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Boiron SA (ISIN FR0000061129) – Boring enough to invest ?

It’s no secret that I like French family run companies. TFF Group, G. Perrier, Installux, Dom Security are just the main examples of these kind of companies.

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Boiron SA is a French company which Bloomberg lists as “Specialty Pharmaceutical” company. Although “Specialty Pharma” is not exactly what they do. in fact, Boiron SA ist the only listed company that I know that exclusively produces and sells Homeopathic “pharmaceutical” products. The call themselves “World leader” of this field.

A few words on Homeopathy

From Wikipedia:

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ALD SA (ISIN FR0013258662) – Cheap growth stock or potential Diesel road kill ?

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Background:

As mentioned a few days ago, ALD SA has been IPOed by parent SocGen on June 16th. SocGen sold ~23% of the stock and remains majority shareholder. The first question of course is: why did they do this ?

The official reason was the following:

The IPO confirms the strategic nature of ALD within Societe Generale group. It will allow ALD to accelerate its development and become a leader in a rapidly changing mobility space.

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Novo Nordisk (DK0060534915)- What now ?

When I looked at Novo Nordisk 3 months ago, I found the stock too expensive at 315 DKK/share. That was my summary back then:

What could make the stock interesting again ?

Well, that’s simple: Either a lower stock price or higher growth. Maybe management has low-balled growth ? Who knows. Maybe the market over reacts if the next quarters don’t look that good ? According to Bloomberg, analysts officially still expect double-digit earnings per share growth well into 2019. Even adjusting for share buy backs, this will be difficult to achieve based on the growth rates communicated by management.

For me, the stock would become more interesting at around 250 DKK under the current growth assumptions. I think I would also like to see more negative comments from analysts.

With the stock now trading at ~229 DKK, it is clearly necessary to revisit the stock again.

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