Category Archives: Fundamentalanalyse

Amaysim (AU000000AYS5) – The “Freenet of Australia” ?

amaysim_4d61ab0ab2142

Business & Business model:

Amaysim is a 320 mn AUD market cap Australian company which went public in July 2015 and  offers mobile  subscription plans without owning the physical network in Australia. So they are effectively a reseller (like Freenet in Germany). As a specialty, they do not package the plans with “free” phones and long lock in periods,  but offer “clean” and customer friendly  contracts which can be canceled on a monthly basis.

Essentially, this is a distribution / billing service. Their value proposition both, for the networks and end clients is that they can offer this service better and cheaper than the networks. If they can do this, then it is “win win” for both sides.

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Special situation: Liquidation of KANAM Grundinvest fund (ISIN DE0006791809)

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

Background:

This investment is not an original idea, but rather a “me too” investment. Ben from Wertart has a very good write up from November last year, so I spare myself to go into too much historic description.

Just the short version: Kanam Grundinvest is one of several formerly open real estate funds in Germany which have been put into liquidation. The major difference to almost all other funds is that in the Kanam case investors actually didn’t lose any money over the lifetime of the fund as the real estate seems to have been relatively high quality. As of December 31st 2016, the fund has sold 95% of its real estate and is now effectively a cash box with some remaining real estate exposure.

So let’s focus on what has changed since Ben wrote his post:

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Topdanmark A/S – A “Cannibal” soon to be set on a dividend diet ?

Topdanmark – The Danish Cannibal

Topdanmark, a local Danish Insurance company has been on my extended “to do” list for a long time for 2 reasons: It is the second most profitable European insurance company after Admiral (based on ROE) and  as Charlie Munger would call it a “true Cannibal”.

Those are some selected numbers from Topdanmark over the last 18 years:

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Australia Updates: DWS & Silver Chef

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!!!

 

Almost exactly 1 year ago I started my exploration into the Australian stock market with DWS Ltd. and Silver Chef.

As some readers know, I didn’t buy DWS (I only put it on my watch list) and bought Silver Chef instead. Now, 1 year later it seems to be that I backed the “wrong horse”:

dws-vs-siv

DWS is up +42,5%, SIV is down -19% (in AUD). So let’s look at DWS first.

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Hastings Plc (ISIN GB00BYRJH519) – the “next Admiral” or an accident waiting to happen ?

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The company

Hastings Plc, a UK-based direct insurance company was IPOed in 2015 at 1,70 GBP per share (IPO prospectus). To call Hastings a “Mini Admiral” is actually very close to the truth.

The company was founded as an underwriting Agency in 1996 by an American called David Gundlach who then sold the company 10 years later. Via a couple of more transformations (MBO etc.) Hastings then was finally brought to the stock exchange. Interestingly, according to some sources, Gundlach had worked at Admiral before so it is no surprise that Hastings looks pretty much like a 1:1 copy Admiral:

They only do direct business, reinsure significant amounts of their premiums and make their money mostly with anciliariy products and fees instead of investment returns like “classical” insurance companies. They only exception is that they don’t run a price comparison website (PCW) but they sell almost all policies via PCWs. Like Admiral, they have branched out into home insurance from

Hastings currently has a market cap of ~1.5 bn GBP and trades at an estimated 17,6 times 2016 earnings.

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Gocompare.com (GoCo) – Another Spin-off that became a “Trump victim” ?

The Company / Spin-off

gc_masthead_opaque

Gocompare.com (GoCo) has been spun-off from parent Esure in the beginning of November, a week before the US elections and only a few days before Italgas SpA. As a “parting gift”, Esure took out a special dividend of about 75 mn GBP financed by some net cash and a 70 mn GBP loan before spinning the company off-

In my understanding, the major reason for the spin-off was that Esure, the listed UK online direct insurer was short in solvency capital and that this transaction improved the solvency substantially.

Every Esure investor got one GoCo share for an Esure share. Interestingly, Toscafund, the second largest shareholder only holds 14% in Goco compared to 16,7 for Esure, so they seem to have sold some shares.

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