And another 25 (almost) randomly selected stocks. This time 5 stocks were in my opinion worth “watching”. As it looks now, there will be only one more post in this series.
726. Smart Equity AG
A 1.7 mn EUR market cap company that calls itself “Experts on Crypto currencies”. “Pass”.
727. InnoTec TSS AG
Innotec is an 88 mn EUR market cap supplier to the construction industry. The company had a nice run up, increasing more than 10x from its low in 2009 until early 2017 as we can see in the chart:
Two different approaches: Bireme Capital sticks to Value Investing whereas Forager has joined the SPAC party
A great three part holistic series from Prof. Damodaran on Value Investing: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3
Interesting deep dive into the often overlooked Geothermal Energy
Morningstar on some lasting changes in consumer behavior from the pandemic
In-depth look into US vs. Google from Stratechery
An interesting portrait of Cliff Asness and his blog from UndervaluedShares
Crazy times: How Just mentioning Green Hydrogen by Management can push any (LNG) stock into the stratosphere
And another 25 (more or less) randomly selected German stocks. This time, only 3 stocks made it onto my preliminary watch list.
701. Morphosys AG
Morphosys is a 3.4 bn EUR biopharmaceutical company that belongs to the “old school” biotechs. Looking at the chart, it took them 2000 year to get back to the level where the first boom in the late 90s pushed them:
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!!
A big thank you top all readers who either commented on my open question if and how to include “Trading positions” into the blog. Overall I concluded that I can allow myself the luxury of a small allocation to “trades” as long as I do it consistently and with good risk management. One of the luxuries of a private investor is indeed that one can allow oneself some fun without needing to explain it to third parties and having fun is important to stay motivated.
Following some additional deliberations, my approach (for the time being) will be the following:
- I will allow myself up to max 10% and up to max 7 trading positions at any given time going forward
- In order to track them I will write short summaries with a clear “game plan” for the position
- Close ot in case of a pre defined loss is a must
- The maximum time allowed will be set at 12 months and either they go out or get upgraded to my other “buckets” in order to avoid a lot of “Trade goes wrong and becomes investment” positions
- However, the “German Basket” will be “sacrificed”, as this honestly is already some kind of “trading portfolio”
German Basket “cleansing”:
In the first 9 months of 2020, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained +3,7% (including dividends, no taxes) against a loss of -6.9% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).
Since inception (01.01.2011), this translates into +201 % vs. 98% for the Benchmark.
Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in the first 9M 2020:
Partners Fund TGV: +6,3%
Squad European Convictions +5,99%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos -19,82% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -6,1%
Evermore Global Value –18.37%(USD)
Greiff Special Situation -3.69%
Squad Aguja Special Situation 12.45%
Paladin One 15.94%
And again 25 more randomly selected German shares with short analysis for each one. This time, seven (!!!) candidated were worth “wacthing”.
Maybe one remark: I asked last time for suggestions for the next series. however before I move on, I will also need to thin down the watch list to an amount that I can handle going forward. At the moment, the extended watch list comprises 141 (!!) stocks which I want to slim down to something like 25 or so.
676. mwb fairtrade Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
mwb is a 33 mn EUR market cap securities trading company. For some reasons, the stock price doubled in 2020, mabye a result of overall trading activity. As I do not undertand their business model, I’ll “pass”.
677. Bayerische Motorenwerke AG
BMW is clearly one of the most famous German brands and one of the most successful car manufacturers in the world. With a market cap of ~39 bn USD, it is valued at a fraction of Tesla and the stock price is on a pretty long lasting downtrend:
Two and a half months after the end of “Panic Journal Season 1”, it seems that “Season 2” is about to start (or has started already in some areas like Madrid or Israel, or never ended as in the US)
Time to summarize what from my point of view has changed or been confirmed since season 1:
+ Vaccine efforts are well on the way. AstraZeneca, despite a short interruption still seems to be a forerunner and end of 2020 seems to be realistic for a functional vaccine to be available
+ although the US had many days with more than 1000 deaths a day, overall the ratio of deaths to reported infections seems to go down in most parts of the world