Monthly Archives: February 2022

Panic Journal – Russia / Ukraine edition Part 1

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Roughly two years after the beginning of the Pandemic, a lot of people thought that we would now get slowly back to our “normal lives” and chill out. Until Mr. Putin decided that he needs to protect himself by invading Ukraine.

As in the original Panic Journal series, these posts are more “self therapy” than anything else, so please excuse me any irrelevant ramblings.

Maybe one upfront remark: I am an investor, not a political expert. So I don’t know what will happen and speculating about it will not add any value. However one thing is clear: War is always a catastrophe, not justified by anything and in the end, everyone is a loser (or dead). Everyone will pay a price, someway or another.

For good measure, I will add some general remarks about Putin and Ukraine at the end.

Russian stocks: No, no and again no

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Some links & “3000”

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A few days ago, the number of subscribers passed the 3000 mark. I feel extremely proud and also humbled that 3000 persons across the globe read my stuff on a regular basis despite all the typos and bad grammar. Thank you very much, this is really a great motivation to keep going !!!

Sprucepoint Capital has released a short report on c3.ai

Great deck from Altafox about its activist campaign for/against Hasbro

Asiancenturystocks has a very comprehensive overview on Asian stock markets

Deep insights into Amazon’s ad business (these ads by the way annoy me big time as “power user”)

A good reminder from Ben Inker (GMO) on what mistakes to avoid in this market

Nice write-up on my former portfolio investment Installux

Ben Evans summarizes 10 big questions for the Tech sector in 2022 (and beyond)

All Danish Shares part 2 – Nr. 11-20

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And on we go with the second post after kicking off last week. Two of the stocks already appeared in the blog some years ago and overall, these ten candidates yielded two “Watch list” candidates.

11. Conferize A/S

Conferize is a 15 mn EUR market cap company that seems to develop software for managing conferences. The company seems to be still “pre revenue”. I do not fully understand why a pre revenue Software company is public, but I’ll happily “pass” without further analysis.

12. Jobindex A/S

Jobindex is a 220 mn EUR market cap company that operates an online Job board which covers all Danish vacancies. The company has been growing nicely until 2018 but then stagnated already in 2019. The chart reflects this to a certain extent, the share price now is similar to the price during the “high growth” phase:

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A first look into the “Insurtech Chainsaw Massacre” – Part 1

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The (short) history of Insurtech so far:

Just a few years ago, “Insuretech” was one of the hottest sectors within Fintech and VC. As in other sectors like retailing or travel, “Digital Insurance” companies were supposed to disrupt this old and slow industry. Listening to VCs and founders was mostly about how easy it would be to take market shares and profits from the old Dinosaurs.

Lemonade was the first Insurtech that went public in July 2020 and its 139% increase on the first day clearly set the scene. The share price went up further and peaked in February at around 170 USD.

Of course this triggered a certain feeding frenzy and a couple of other Insurtechs went public either via IPO or SPAC in the following months, like Root, Oscar, Metromile etc.

However, now, roughly 18 months after Lemonades IPO, things look a lot different. Here is an overview of the “Chainsaw massacre” that happened (in the order off going public):

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All Danish Stocks Part 1 – Nr. 1-10

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As indicated in the last post of the “All Swiss Stocks series”, the next country I have targeted is Denmark. As always, I will look at the stocks in a random order. According to the Nasdaq OmX Nordic website, Denmark currently has 183 listed companies, spread over 2 segments, Nasdaq Copenhagen and the Nasdaq First North Growth Segment.

One decent feature of the Nasdaq OMX Nordic website is that they have very good summaries for each company (in cooperation with Morning Star) which makes this way of research quite efficient.

In addition, I have subscribed to TIKR.com which makes it easier to look at historic financials.

In this first installment, 2 out of 10 candidates are going onto the preliminary watch list. As always, comments are highly welcome !!!

1. Tryg A/S

Tryg is a 14.4 bn EUR market cap insurance company active mostly in Denmark, Sweden and Norway and is one of the largest Non-life insurance companies in the Nordics.

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Some Links

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Interesting feature about “NFT Investor” MetaKovan

Good article on successful stock bloggers (Jeremy  Raper)

The Monevator on Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Great article from “legend” Charles D. Ellis about his personal investment highlights

OAM 2021 letter to investors with a Bull case for Asia (China, India)

Great post from Neckar on David Tepper (Appalosa)

Marc Rubinstein on Swiss Private Banking and UBS

Nabaltec AG – Boring Old Economy Dinosaur or “Hidden Champion” Electrification beneficiary ?

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOU OWN RESEARCH !!!!

The company:

naba logo

Nabaltec is not a fancy Biotech company as the name might indicate, but a rather “old economy” Specialty Chemical company focusing on Aluminium-oxide based materials, located in the middle of nowhere in my home state Bavaria. This  typical “German Mittelstand” company had its IPO in 2006, and was created 1996  as management buy-out of a production facility from VAW AG. The beginnings of the plant as such seems to have been built in 1938 and looks like this:

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