Monthly Archives: September 2022

All Danish Shares part 11 – Nr. 101-110

In volatile times like these, I actually enjoy from time to time to take a “stoic” brake and work through a list of companies. In order to reach my target of finishing Denmark this year, I also need to hurry up a little bit (still more than 70 stocks to go…). Please find another 10 randomly selected Danish stock with one new candidate to “watch”.

101. EAC Invest

EAC Invest is actually a stock I had looked at almost exactly 9 years ago when the company was called “East Asiatic Company”. Back then, their main business was a meat business in Venezuela and a Autralian focused relocation company for miners. Looking at the share price development, it was a good decision to move on despite back then the stock looked ultra cheap:

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Knorr Bremse AG: German Mittelstand”Hidden Champion” with a few issues


Knorr is a company I have been looking into now for some time. It is one of those “hidden Champions” that Germany is famous for. As I drive by their HQ on a regular basis, I decided to have a deeper look into them.


Knorr logo

Knorr Bremse has a very interesting history. The company was founded in 1905 in Berlin and for a few years, BMW (in its original form) was actually a subsidiary of Knorr. In 1985, Karl Herrmann Thiele, who initially joined the company in 1969, took over the majority from the Knorr family and developed the company into a Global Player. The company is now headquartered in Munich and only went public for 80 EUR/share in October 2018.

Karl-Herrmann Thiele

Thiele died quite surprisingly in early 2021, the heirs still own around 59% of the shares via a foundation.

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Some links

Maynard Peyton with a very extensive deep dive into System1 Plc

There seems to be some correlation between “best places to work” and stock performance

Narcissistic fund managers are bad for fund performance

Marc Rubinstein with an interesting piece on UK Insurance regulation (Solvency II & Infrastructure investments)

“Railroader” seems to be a very interesting book

A nice case study on a Liquidation special Situation (Concorde Camera, 2008)

Another attempt at analyzing skill vs luck for portfolio managers




Some links

Maboussin with a deep dive on market share 

Reading texts on paper seems to be more efficient than reading on a device

Nice write-up on HongKong’s Swire Pacific from Michael Fritzell

Marc Rubinstein makes the case for UK Banks as potentially interesting investment

Interesting pitch for FEMSA from Patient Capital

Insider Ideas thinks that Ocado might be worth a deeper look

Mark Suster thinks private (VC) valuations will need to reset

PANIC JOURNAL – UKRAINE/RUSSIA EDITION PART 4: The new “Freedom Insulation” Basket

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Never trust any anonymous dude on the internet. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!! 

Panic Update:

As to be expected, my last “panic post” marked more or less the (short term) peak in Natural Gas and Electricity prices in Europe. Since then, prices have gone down more than -50% from the peak. Nevertheless, prices are far from normal and sustainable. Governments have already proposed action in the form of intercepting the markets.

In the recent days, I have seen more and more “models” that seem to tell us that Germany/Europe is fine for this Winter and after that everything will be smooth sailing (LNG terminals, French deliveries etc.), despite the Russian completely halting NS1 deliveries last week and not reinstating them based on phony reasons.

I actually started to build a model myself but then decided to focus on the big picture instead. As I argued on Twitter, the one big variable that will determine how Europe is doing will be the temperature.

However, independent how this winter will be, Natural Gas will be a scarce resource in Europe for some years to come. Even in the (low probability) case that there will be a quick end of the Ukraine conflict, Europe will not and cannot go back into the Russian dependency. On the other hand, switching to LNG at acceptable prices will take a few years until enough liquification, gasification and transportation capacity is available.

This recent article in the FT quotes the boss of Shell:

“It may well be that we have a number of winters where we have to somehow find solutions through efficiency savings, through rationing and a very, very quick buildout of alternatives,” he said. “That this is going to be somehow easy, or over, I think is a fantasy that we should put aside.”

Another German language article quotes several Oil and Gas executives that it takes at least 3-4 years until Russian Gas can be fully replaced.

So my base case for the coming 3-5 years will be:  There is not enough Natural Gas (ex Russia) available in Europe and Gas and electricity will remain very expensive in Europe.

The only real option: Decrease Demand

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Special Situation: 3U Holding – Sale of WeClapp Subsidiary with Net cash proceeds > market cap

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Never trust any anonymous dudes on the internet. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!


Readers of my blog know that I like Special situations where a company,  that has been flying under the radar,  (unexpectedly) sells an asset that is worth potentially more than the market cap of the whole company. In these cases, it often takes some time until the market fully realizes what has happened.

Sapec was a good example, Exmar is a recent case that is still ongoing.

3U Holding – Weclapp

3U logo

The current case is a small cap from Germany called 3U Holding. 3U was IPOed in the bubble days of the boom in 1999. Other than many of its peers, its core communication business was quite solid. They sold their Communication business in 2007 and since then acted like  mixture of Holding company and Family Office for the founders who own ~34% and effectively control the company.

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Some links

Former “Growth Darling” Saga Partners trying to explain -75% performance in the first 6M 2022

A great check list to identify interesting stocks “off the beaten path”

When Brad Feld, who has written the best book on Venture Capital, offers a free course on this topic, you should sign up.

Time machine: The “Burning Platform” memo of the CEO of Nokia from 2011 (why didn’t I buy Apple and Google back then ?)

Bireme Capital with a deep dive into their Twitter “special situation” investment

Some deep thoughts on when Share buy backs make sense and when not (Autozone, Altice US)

UK households seem to be hit most by high Natural Gas and Energy prices in Europe