Category Archives: What we read

Some links

Great 2022 portfolio review of the very eccletic Emerging Value blog

Despite the lacklustre performance, Terry Smith’s Fundsmith annual letters are still a great read. 2022 is no exception

Describing 2022 as a very good year for David Einhorn would be a massive understatement

Interesting deep dive into a Canadian Port logistics company called Logistec

2022 letter from TGV Partners (Ferguson, Mutui, Tucows; Naked Wines)

Seawolf Capital, run by a “Big short” veteran, was up +169% last year

Some interesting insights how a decrease in population interacts with the economy

Some links

Tyler Cowen on who might win and how might lose from the advance of AI

A short history of the Video Game industry and the Activision/Microsoft case from Stratechery

The new Howard Marks memo “Sea change”

Mauboussin on Capital Allocation

Whenever Joel Greenblatt is speaking, one should listen (and watch)

Nature magazine with a good summary on the recent Nuclear Fusion “breakthrough”

Marc Rubinstein on retail banking and Vernon Hill (Commerce Bank, Metro bank)

 

 

 

 

Panic Journal 5 – Ukraine/Russia edition: Is Europe really Toast, Energy Silver Bullets and the Weather

It’s time after exactly 3 months for some new ramblings on Energy, Europe and of course the weather and other stuff.

Bad news everywhere:

The last few weeks felt like a new catastrophe is happening every week or so. Italian elections, the British Pound trading like a Shitcoin, Putin threatening the West with Nuclear Weapons, Energy prices for retail customers skyrocketing, potential Blackouts being a real issue in Europe this winter, steel and fertilizer companies shutting down in Europe, creating supply chain issues down the chain and in addition, rumors about regime change in China and/or preparations for an attack on Taiwan are surfacing every day.

I have been listening to some US podcasts and there seems to be consensus on that Europe is Toast. Even a comparison to the “Arab Spring” was made with the dire prediction that Governments will topple like Domino tiles. I don’t want to sound arrogant but one word of advice to my American readers: European countries are actually all Democracies and if people don’t like their leaders they will elect new ones.

The FT was just running an article about the coming Deindustrialization of Germany with the example of BASF threatening to “leave” Germany and Billionaire Ray Dalio thinks that Europeans are not working hard enough.

Read more

Some links

Interesting FT article on UK listed Venture Capital vehicles (Venture Capital Trusts)

A good “red flags” list for Venture investments that might work well for listed tech stocks, too

A very nice deep dive into LVMH and the luxury business

Interesting Podcast with UK investing legend Nick Train

Swen Lorenz with a very interesting introduction & Deep Dive into the Lloyds Insurance market

A nice pitch for Europe and Germany despite the current energy crisis from Noahopinion

If you haven’t tried out ChatGPT yet, do it. I wonder how schools and universities will cope with pupils and students doing their homework using this tool.

 

Some links

Trustpilot, which listed in the UK in  2021, doesn’t look like a must have stock

Some Spin-off stocks with insider buying

Insider Deals with a nice write up on Gym Group Plc

Bireme Capital really likes Meta

Great write up on 2 cheap micro caps: Atlas Engineered group (Canada, roofs) and HAV Group (Norway, boats)

The finance industry has invented “Collateralized Fund Obligations” that allow leveraged bets on (leveraged) PE Funds. What could go wrong here ?

An interesting deep dive on how to reduce the Carbon footprint of Cement

Some links

Profit Hunting has a nice write-up on Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (Mexico Stock Exchange)

In contrast to growth rates, high profitability seems to be very persistent over time

Good timeline and summary of the FTX & SBF drama. And the FT on “CZ”, the arch enemy of SBF.

Morgan Housel with some very good advice on how to write

Interesting long read on ETF Arbitrage behemoth Jane Street (former employer of SBF)

ByteDance, the parent of TikTok is an interesting example how non-traded equity stakes can be valued wildly different across investors

Verus on Interest rates and the attractiveness of Bank stocks (German)

Book review: “The Star Builders: Nuclear Fusion and the Race to Power the Planet” – Arthur Turrell

star builders

Those readers that share my fascination with Science Fiction books know the plot: In the (far) future, humans have solved Nuclear Fusion and with that unlimited energy is then able to fly to the stars.

“The Star Builders” however is not a Science Fiction book but the attempt to analyze the current status of this technology, written by a “serious” Physics researcher.

Read more

Some links

Molten Ventures is another beaten up listed VC stock

A critical look into the Mega Buyout (and mega leverage) of Citrix

Although it’s from McKinsey, this interview with VC legend Bill Gurley is really good

Extremely interesting analysis of the accuracy of analyst forecasts

Ben Thompson (Startechery) sees Microsoft as the “real VR” company

Interesting deep dive into the current state of Softbank

Very nice write-up on Hypoport from Verus (German language)

Some links

Maynard Peyton with a very extensive deep dive into System1 Plc

There seems to be some correlation between “best places to work” and stock performance

Narcissistic fund managers are bad for fund performance

Marc Rubinstein with an interesting piece on UK Insurance regulation (Solvency II & Infrastructure investments)

“Railroader” seems to be a very interesting book

A nice case study on a Liquidation special Situation (Concorde Camera, 2008)

Another attempt at analyzing skill vs luck for portfolio managers

 

 

 

Some links

Maboussin with a deep dive on market share 

Reading texts on paper seems to be more efficient than reading on a device

Nice write-up on HongKong’s Swire Pacific from Michael Fritzell

Marc Rubinstein makes the case for UK Banks as potentially interesting investment

Interesting pitch for FEMSA from Patient Capital

Insider Ideas thinks that Ocado might be worth a deeper look

Mark Suster thinks private (VC) valuations will need to reset

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