Actelion (CH0010532478) – Merger arbitrage with a potential Spin-off “Gold Nugget” ?

Yesterday, Johnson and Johnson announced that they intend to acquire Actelion, the Swiss Biotech company for 280 USD per share.

The stock price jumped to around 272 CHF/USD right after the announcement indicating a relatively high probability of closing. J&J has enough money on their bank account and according to the press, most Actelion shareholders should be happy.

Closing date is targeted as June 30th. So if everything goes according to plan, this would mean ~2,9% yield for 5 months which is not bad but not that great either (as there are always risks) , so why bother ?

However there is an interesting specialty in this case which I didn’t see when I first looked into it. The official announcement contained this potential “golden nugget”:

As part of the transaction, immediately prior to the completion of the acquisition, Actelion will spin out its drug discovery operations and early-stage clinical development assets into a newly created Swiss biopharmaceutical company (“R&D NewCo”). The shares of R&D NewCo, which will be listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange (SIX), will be distributed to Actelion’s shareholders as a stock dividend upon closing of the tender.  Johnson & Johnson will initially hold 16% of the shares of R&D NewCo and have rights to an additional 16% of R&D NewCo equity through a convertible note. The arrangements will result in R&D NewCo launching with cash of CHF 1 billion to be made available at the closing of the transactions. Johnson & Johnson will also receive an option on ACT-132577, a product within R&D NewCo being developed for resistant hypertension currently in phase 2 clinical development. Together, these arrangements with R&D NewCo will provide Johnson & Johnson with additional sources of innovation and value. R&D NewCo will be led by Actelion’s current scientific team with Jean-Paul Clozel, MD, Chief Executive Officer and founding member of Actelion, as Chief Executive Officer. Jean Pierre Garnier, Chairman of the Board of Actelion, will be Chairman of the Board of R&D NewCo.

So if I buy Actelion now at ~272, I get 280 end of June plus a share in a spin-off company which hopefully will be worth more than zero.

How much will that spin-off be worth ?

I have no idea as I have little knowledge in valuing R&D companies without any sales int the near future. A simple approach would be to use the cash of 1 bn and to adjust for the 32% of J&J. This translates into (680/108) ~6 CHF/USD “extra” value per share.

Qualitative aspects:

What I found interesting is that the Actelion CEO moves to the spin-off company including the complete scientific department. In an article in the FT it was mentioned that this was actually a condition of the CEO to cede control of the company. He seems to feel quite strongly about his development pipeline and was afraid that those projects would be terminated after the take over. He was approached by J&J already a year ago but held out until his conditions were satisified. So this guy seems to be quite a character….

Sell side analysts

Interestingly most sell-side analysts simply used the 280 USD as a new price target for Actelion. However a few banks had different price target, for instance UBS. This is what UBS said:

Kursziel Actelion: UBS erhöht auf 285 (200) CHF – Neutral

Zürich (awp) — Die UBS erhöht das Kursziel für Actelion nach dem Übernahmeangebot durch Johnson&Johnson auf 285 von 200 CHF, bleibt aber bei der Einstufung Neutral. Im neuen Kursziel ist einerseits das Bar-Angebot über 280 CHF je Aktie enthalten, andererseits integriert Michael Leuchten noch die 1 Mrd Barmittel, mit denen das abgespaltene R&D-Unternehmen ausgestattet wird. Er rechnet mit einem Abschluss der Transaktion im zweiten Quartal 2017.

So they assigned a value of 5 USD/CHF per share to the spin-off. Deutsche Bank has a price target of 286 and Bank am Bellevue for some reason increased to 300 USD.

Downside: Picking up pennies in front of a steam roller ?

I am pretty sure that some people think this is “picking up pennies in front of a steam roller”. This is true if you do these kind of transactions very rarely. However if you do those transactions on a regular basis, then the “law of large numbers” applies. In my opinion this is clearly not a 100% sure thing but a transaction with a positive expected value. If you do many of them, this will work out over the long term.

Clearly there is a chance that for some reason the deal might fall through. The undisturbed share price was maybe at 160 or 180. On the other hand there was the rumour that Sanofic was higly interested as well which shoul dprotect the stock price in the case that the J&J bid would fall through.

Summary:

Although this is not a spectacular case, I do like this one as it is quite unique. There are clearly some execution risks (the official offer will only come out early February), but to me it looks like an interesting case.

If everything goes well, I get ~3% for 5 months plus a share in an R&D development company which could add another 2-3%. There are clearly some risks involved, on the other hand there is also upside because of the spin-off and it seems to be that not everyone has understood the structure.

So for the portfolio, I will initiate a 3% position at around 271,50 CHF per share. I will not hedge the currency as I don’t have a lot of USD exposure anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

68 comments

  • Tendered my shares today….

  • New business to be called Idorsia

    ACTELION ISSUES INVITATION TO 2017 ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS
    ALLSCHWIL/BASEL, SWITZERLAND – 15 March 2017 – Actelion Ltd (SIX: ATLN) today issued the formal invitation to the upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM) of Shareholders on behalf of the Board of Directors. The meeting to approve the Business Report of the year ending 31 December 2016 will be held on 05 April 2017 at 10.00 CEST at the premises of Actelion, Hegenheimermattweg 95, 4123 Allschwil, Switzerland.
    NOTES TO SHAREHOLDERS
    The invitation was published in the Swiss Official Gazette of Commerce (Schweizerisches Handelsamtsblatt) on 15 March 2017 and is available, together with the Company’s Annual Report and Compensation Report, on http://www.actelion.com.
    In order to attend and vote at the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, Shareholders must have been registered in the Company’s shareholder register by 31 March 2017 at the latest.
    As previously announced, Janssen Holding GmbH, Zug, an indirect subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, (the “Offeror”), made a public tender offer for all of the shares of Actelion Ltd. (the “Offer”). The Board of Directors is recommending to the shareholders of Actelion Ltd (the “Shareholder(s)”) to accept the Offer in the Report of the Board of Directors, which is available on http://www.actelion.com/proposed-transaction. In connection with the Offer, Actelion’s drug discovery and early clinical pipeline business shall be demerged and transferred to a newly-created entity, Idorsia Ltd, Allschwil (the “Demerger”, and together with the Offer, the “Transactions”). For a detailed description of the Transactions, please refer to the Shareholder Information Brochure, which can be downloaded from Actelion’s website under http://www.actelion.com/agm.

  • Upgrade from JPM:

    Actelion Raised at JPMorgan, Broker Sees 7% Upside by Mid-Year
    By William Canny
    (Bloomberg) — Actelion upgraded to overweight, PT raised to CHF292, JPMorgan says in note.
    Says estimate NewCo fair value CHF7/share, when combined with CHF285/share cash payment, gives CHF292/share or 7% upside
    Very confident that J&J’s buy of Actelion will complete
    Notes that Actelion is trading at a 7% spread to deal completion value, this shows deal-break anxiety due to Uptravi adverse events
    Says these concerns are misplaced, as J&J was aware of all information prior to deal announcement, sees the deal as likely to close
    Sees a number of pipeline data points this year with potential to trigger NewCo NPV upgrades
    Actelion shares gain 0.3

  • Hi,

    hast du die Weisung bei deinem Broker schon erteilt?

  • Hi, Can I ask you how do you keep track of all the corporates events in Europe?

  • Positive comments on the prospectus today

    This is the feedback from Jefferies

    Key Takeaway

    Our key insights from JNJ’s Offer Prospectus and Actelion’s Board Report are:
    (1) Our fair value for R&D NewCo rises to CHF15 from CHF14/share based on
    much more favourable deal terms for ‘577; (2) Material Adverse Effects are
    defined broadly as expected at 15+% EBIT or 10+% sales vs 2015 excluding US
    Gx Tracleer; (3) 8% royalty to R&D NewCo on ponesimod/cadazolid is in-line.
    Many shareholders’ reluctance to own R&D NewCo may see its value discounted
    up to 50%.

    Impressive deal terms for ‘577: The collaboration agreement with JNJ ($117, Hold)
    for ACT-132577 is more favourable for R&D NewCo than we had anticipated. Following
    completion of the current Phase II study in essential hypertension, JNJ may opt-in by paying
    $230m to R&D NewCo. We note this upfront is partly offset by a cost-sharing arrangement
    for future R&D. Particularly impressive are the royalties on sales, in our view, at 20% up
    to $500m, 30% from $500m to $2bn, and then 35% >$2bn. Together these deal terms
    boost our 30% risk-adjusted ‘577 NPV for R&D NewCo to CHF3.5 from CHF1.8 per share,
    representing an incremental c.CHF1/share after 32% dilution from JNJ’s potential stake.

    Ponesimod and cadazolid terms as expected: R&D NewCo is eligible to receive 8%
    royalties on future sales of both ponesimod and cadazolid, broadly in-line with the “5%-10%
    normal range” eluded to on the conference call and our prior 7.5% estimate.

    Board Report provides insight into negotiations: It is now apparent that JNJ first
    approached Actelion as early as January 2016, with the protracted negotiations largely due
    to the perceived value of Actelion’s pipeline, eventually solved by the decision to spinout
    R&D NewCo. The Board Report also confirms that another company (Company A)
    approached Actelion, culminating in an offer that would deliver “approximately equivalent
    value to Actelion’s shareholders”, with the decision to proceed with JNJ’s proposal largely
    based on the greater transaction certainty, given the more advanced stage of negotiations.

    Material Adverse Effect clauses as expected: The Offer Prospectus published by
    JNJ today defines Material Adverse Effects (MAEs) broadly as we anticipated. MAEs are a
    reduction in either: (1) EBIT equivalent to 15% of 2015 CHF656m; or (2) Sales equivalent to
    10% of 2015 CHF2.05bn. The Prospectus confirms that the impact from potential availability
    of US generic Tracleer is excluded.

    EMA PRAC advises continued use of Uptravi: The EMA has initiated a safety review
    of Uptravi, following the death of five patients taking the drug in France. Importantly
    after a preliminary review the EMA’s Pharmacovigilence Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC)
    advised on 11 February that Uptravi “may continue to be used, but use must be in line with the
    current prescribing information”. This advice aligns with our thinking that the likelihood of
    any new drug toxicity concerns are low, since this would likely have been identified by the
    US FDA before now, given that many more patients have been initiated on the drug in the
    US (launch 4 January 2016) than in Europe (launch June 2016 but more recently in France),
    and is more likely an issue related to the way the drug is being titrated or the types of patient
    treated. We expect the review to take a number of months, but continue to believe it does not
    pose a threat to the JNJ deal, with the most likely outcome a letter clarifying the appropriate
    titration of the drug, and/or updated labeling. The US is the key driver for Uptravi sales,
    contributing CHF77m of CHF85m 4Q (91%), with CHF7m in Europe. Over 2,400 patients
    were on treatment at YE, from >1,800 patients at end-3Q, including over 1,900 in the US.

  • Wen es interessiert, habe ich eben in der FUW gesehen:
    http://www.fuw.ch/article/die-wahrheit-ueber-den-fall-actelion/

    • Sie haben halt hart verhandelt.

      Fraglich ist halt, ob der CEO seine Pipeline teuer verkaufen wollte, nach dem Motto wir haben ja schon 2-3 Mega-Medikamente erfunden oder ob er zwanghaft seine Pipeline behalten wollte, da er eben noch 2-3 Mega-Medikamente in der Pipeline hat. Das Ergebnis ist m.E. 50:50. Er darf nicht alles behalten und JNJ kann recht schnell bis zu 48% haben. Falls er der Meinung ist, dass 2-3 Mega-Medikamente in der Pipeline stecken, dann müsste er eigentlich fett zu kaufen. Vllt macht er sogar ein Übernahmeangebot 😀

  • JNJ begibt eine Wandelanleihe an die NewCo. Die ist 580 mio. SFR wert. 16 der 32% müssen sofort gewandelt werden. Die ersten 5 Jahre dürfen sie nicht mehr als 32% haben. Also nur zukaufen, wenn sie nicht mehr gewandelt haben. Die Anleihe geht 10 Jahre. Bei voller Wandlung entspricht das 10,58 Euro/NewCo-Aktie Theoretisch könnten sie also nach 5 Jahren und einem Tag 48% haben.Nimmt man mal an, dass der CEO auch ein bißchen kauft, dann wird der Free Float eng werden.

    • Bei den Phase III-Medikamenten geht man nicht leer aus. Man bekommt 8% des Umsatzes. “Recht auf Zahlungen von 8% des gesamten Nettoumsatzes von Ponesimod- und Cadazolid”

      Bei dem Phase II-Medikament, auf das JNJ eine Option hat, bekommt man bei Ausübung der Option eine Meilensteinzahlung von 230 mio USD sowie werden die weiteren FuE-Kosten geteilt. Vim Umsatz bekommt man gestaffelt 20-35% als Lizenzgebühr.

  • Zur Forschungs-Aktie ist die heutige Quartalsmitteilung vllt. interessant:

    – Alle Phase III-Studien ==> JNJ
    – Die einzige abgeschlossene Phase II-Studie ==> JNJ
    – Option auf 1 Phase II-Medikament

    Damit bleiben 4 Phase II (laufend), 1 Phase Ib (abgeschlossen) und 4 Phase I (laufend)

    Ich denke, dass da zeitnah nichts kommen wird. Eher, dass man erstmal sehr viel Geld braucht

    Prospekt kommt 16.2. und HV ist 5.4.

    • Das ist jetzt keine überraschung. Alles zeitnahe wäre mit verkauft worden.

      • M.E. eine Win/Win-Situation für JNJ und den CEO: JNJ hat die kurzfristigen Chancen und ist mit bis zu 32% an einem erfolgreichem Forschungsteam beteiligt. Der CEO hat 1 Milliarde und die teuren Phase III-Studien sind erstmal weg.

        Es stellt sich halt die Frage, ob man Phase III überhaupt betreiben will oder ob dann die Studien von JNJ gekauft werden. Das Phase 1b-Medikament soll bspw. direkt in Phase III.

        Ich denke, dass man übermorgen mehr weiss. Was zahlt JNJ für die 16%-Option? Was ist JNJ die Option auf das eine Phase II-Medikament wert?

        Die Spekulationen gingen ja bisher von 2 bis 15 Franken je Aktie.

        • Ein interessanter Indikator könnte m.E. werden, was CEO Clozel mit seinen 1,5 Milliarden Cash von JNJ macht. Falls er von der Forschungs-Aktie, an der er ja auch 4,3% halten wird, überzeugt ist, dann wird er ja zukaufen. Und als CEO muss er das ja veröffentlichen. Mit dem Cash müsste er sich ja locker in den Bereich 15-20% kaufen können, ohne, dass er bei einem Scheitern Altersarmut haben wird. Ich bin mal gespannt 😀

  • from Bloomberg, good news:

    Actelion’s Uptravi Can Still Be Used, EMA’s PRAC Says in Review
    By Naomi Kresge
    (Bloomberg) — Actelion’s Uptravi should be used in line with current prescribing information, EMA’s Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) says.
    PRAC to make recommendations after Uptravi review is complete
    PRAC comments in statement
    Actelion pares discount vs. J&J offer after EMA’s PRAC comments, trades 5.2% below J&J offer vs. 6.5% discount earlier
    NOTE earlier: Actelion Uptravi Deaths Data Shows ‘No Smoking Gun’: Scorpeo

    • That is good news. Also, an analyst met with J&J management and received confirmation that J&J was aware of the issue before making the bid:

      “J&J knew about the French Uptravi review ahead of the deal and appears quite
      comfortable with Uptravi’s safety profile. Our take on the situation is that the French
      regulators are taking a cautious approach to drug safety as a response to historical cases
      where dangerous drugs have been left on the market longer than they should have. With
      >1,600 patients already on the drug in the US compared to ~40 total in France, we likely
      would have seen such a significant safety signal occur already in the US experience, if
      there was one. The regulatory response also seems to indicate some doubt as to whether
      Uptravi was truly the cause of the deaths; while new prescriptions were discontinued,
      existing patients were allowed to continue their treatments with increased monitoring.
      J&J management knew of the issue before closing the deal and still decided to go ahead
      with the purchase.”

  • Why does your position in Actelion not show up in your “Current Portfolio” section?

  • Any idea about the tax treatment, it’s not clear if we need to pay taxes on the spin-off proceeds…

    From Actelion website: The receipt of cash pursuant to the Offer by a U.S. holder of Actelion Shares may be a taxable transaction for U.S. federal income tax purposes and under applicable U.S. state and local laws, as well as foreign and other tax laws. Each shareholder of Actelion is urged to consult his or her independent professional advisor immediately regarding the tax consequences of an acceptance of the Offer. Neither the SEC nor any securities commission of any State of the U.S. has (a) approved or disapproved of the Offer, (b) passed upon the merits or fairness of the Offer, or (c) passed upon the adequacy or accuracy of the disclosure in the pre-announcement. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offence in the U.S.

    From the call with JNJ, JP Clozel (Actelion CEO) said: “I think that for the tax I’m not the best person to answer the question. But just I think it would depend also on the country. I think that Switzerland is a different location. So I think it’s difficult to address for all shareholders, depending on where they are allocated — that situation”.

  • Bought another slice, again financed by sale of Agrekko. Position is now 4,5% of portofolio.

    • Did you take a look at GFK? It is now trading below the KKR offer. Michael Dell´s Family Office and Primestone (never heard before) have bought stakes above 5% each.
      I sense some asymmetry here, but have not done enough work.

    • Normally only reading your articles (thumbs up for the quality) but can’t resist to react here. Do you realise that, should the Uptravi ban in France actually have a medical founding by which the whole medicine would be abandoned after all, not only the deal would be off the table, but also large part of the business case of Actelion before takeover talks could be thrown out of the window ? You could be looking sub 100 CHF. Risk/reward is really difficult to assess in this one…

      • According to the press, J&J is aware of this. To be precise: The problem has been known well before J&J has submitted the bid.

        Here for instance a (German language) source:

        http://www.fuw.ch/article/actelion-verlieren-nach-warnung-vor-medikament/

        Although I am clearly not an expert on this, I do think that the risk is very comparable to other M&A cases.

        • From Bloomberg:
          J&J/Actelion Deal Unlikely to Be Derailed, Kepler Cheuvreux Says
          By William Canny
          (Bloomberg) — It is unclear whether a negative PRAC review for Actelion’s Uptravi could be counted as a new adverse event by J&J, Kepler Cheuvreux says in note dated Feb. 6.
          Says irrespective of this, deal is unlikely to be derailed
          Drugs can be taken off the market based on PRAC reviews, but this happens rarely, and even for drugs with serious risks PRAC has ruled patients can continue to take them
          ANSM’s action is precautionary, as Uptravi’s role in deaths has not been established and existing patients should continue taking the drug, so there is no “immediately obvious link”
          Adds that only a small number of Uptravi patients are French, so a clear signal from a small patient base being attributable to Uptravi is slim
          PRAC may view Uptravi as an important drug for patients with limited options, as it cut the risk of a mortality event by 40%

        • I’ve read the articles and comments. But with 30CHF upside and 160 downside, I can understand Och-Ziff selling their position; I don’t agree it’s your typical M/A at hese prices and Uptravi is a fine example of a black swan of which we all hope it’ll remain out of sight…

        • Well, we will see. In my opinion, there is a positive expected value in this case. I could be wrong of course. That is part of the game and a risk I am willing to take, especially as it has low correlation to other things.

          I cannot comment on Och-Ziff, but it seems that someone bought their posittion who thinks it is worth buying.

  • Hello, do you have any idea why there is still 10% arbitrage room left? It is too good to be true for this large-cap company. And it seems to me that the deal is highly likely to finish.

    • I clearly do not know what other people are thinking. My explanation (and reflecting earlier comments) would be that it is a combination of: unusual structure, FX exposure, taxes/trading costs and remaining deal uncertainty which results in this currently rather “rich” spread.

      But we will see….

  • A german language article from NZZ, estimating the value of the spin-off at 7-11 CHF per share.

    https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/nach-der-uebernahme-durch-jj-so-viel-wert-ist-das-actelion-baby-ld.143649

  • In.
    full position @ 255.7 CHF

  • DIMITRIOS TAMVAKAS

    usdchf could hit 0.955 easily in the next months and this is another heavy barrier for ACT stock. In any case, this transaction looks attractive!!

  • I like it. One analyst ist calling for 10-14 CHF in value for the R&D company. But I guess some are double counting, Drug potential plus cash value. However, even with a value of 6-7 CHF it is attractive enough.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/clozel-goes-back-to-his-roots-following-30-billion-sale-to-j-j

  • What ist going on?

      • Where did you put a stop-loss?

      • 2,x% war halt ein bißchen wenig. Den Wert des Forschungsunternehmen kann man ja nicht bestimmen. Deine angenommenen 32% sind glaube ich nicht ganz richtig. Wenn ich es richtig verstanden habe, dann bekommt JNJ erstmal 16% und hat irgendeine Wandlungsoption auf weitere 16%.

        Ich denke, dass es jetzt bei 245/246 Euro ein interessanter Deal ist. Risiko ist halt Trump. Aber man ist in dem Bereich bis 1,14/1,15 ja alleine durch den Cash-Betrag im plus.

        Jetzt hat man 6% + die Aktienkomponente. Das ist gut für eine Transaktion, die m.W. im 2.HJ abgeschlossen werden soll.

      • From Deutsche Bank:

        Actelion shares are trading down on news that the French drug agency (ANSM) has recommended in a letter to physicians that new patients should not be initiated on Actelion’s drug Uptravi (~40% of 2020E sales) pending investigation into reports of patient deaths on initiation of therapy. The relationship between
        these deaths and Uptravi is unclear. The letter is believed to have been made prior to the confirmed offer from J&J but has only now been picked up by the market. We believe it is most likely that J&J was aware of the warning prior to its confirmed offer to acquire the company but we are awaiting confirmation of this.
        We believe the measure is likely to be precautionary and we remind investors that Uptravi’s efficacy and safety has been proven in a large randomised Phase III trial and ~1500 patients were initiated on drug in the US as of the end of 3Q16 with no similar action by the FDA. Given the seeming rarity of these events, it is likely to lead to (at worst) tightened precautions and warnings when initiating patients on therapy. This is unlikely to materially impact the drug’s commercial opportunity or conclusion of the transaction.

        From Reuters

        The trader said the spectre of potential problems with Actelion’s newest PAH drug have prompted market uncertainty even though the French advisory was issued before J&J announced its $30 bln takeover of Actelion on Jan. 26

        • “Ärzte in Frankreich dürfen bei neuen Patienten nicht mehr Uptravi verschreiben. Gemäss Actelion wusste der US-Gesundheitskonzern Johnson & Johnson darüber Bescheid, als er sein Kaufangebot machte.”

  • Heute sind die Kurse spannender geworden. Gerade wird zu 245/246 Euro gehandelt. Das sind >6% + Forschungs-Aktie. Ich hoffe mal, dass deine Steuermeinung stimmt 😀

  • Does anyone know how this will work for ADR holders in the U.S.?

  • Es scheint im Kern auf eine Währungsspekulation mit kleinem Bonus hinauszulaufen, vielleicht geschmälert durch Steuern und Gebühren. Der zentrale Hebel liegt in der Währungsspeku, nicht im Bonus. Liegt dir das, erfahrungsgemäß, oder ist das gar ein komplett neues Spielfeld für dich?
    (Mein Spielfeld sind Währungen definitiv nicht, dazu ist mir die Weltpolitik derzeit zu erratisch)

    • Das sehe ich nicht so. Eine Währungspekulation ist m.E. eine Transaktion, wo sich eine Währung in eine bestimmte Richtung bewegen muss um einen Ertrag zu generieren.

      Das hier ist eine Sondersituation mit einem Währungsrisiko. Der Dollar kann ungefähr 5-6% fallen bis zum Break even im Basisszenario. Er kann aber auch gleich bleiben oder sogar steigen. Das Währungsrisiko wird m.E. durch die “Marge” vergütet. Als institutioneller könnte ich das Risko mit Kosten von unter 0,5% absichern.

      Zudem glaube ich ist in dem “Bonus” Spin-off eine Menge Optionalität enthalten die ich bei den 5-6 USD pro Spin-off Aktie nicht berücksichtigt habe..Interessanterweise konzentrieren sich die Kommentare aber ausschlieslich auf Währung und Steuern. Schon interessant.

      Und logisch, wenn der Dollar 10% verliert im ersten Halbjahr, dann mache ich damit voraus.. Verlust. Aber dieses Risiko ist relativ niedrig korreliert zur Transaktion an sich und zu meinem Portfolio.

      Selbstverständlich wären mir “sichere” 6% ohne Währung und ohne Spin-off lieber, aber im 5 Monatsbereich sehe ich das nicht wirklich …..

      • Ich finde, dass das mit Steuern, Kosten und Währung zu erwähnen ist. Pro 25k bekommst ja nur ca, 500 Euro in der Abspaltung.

        Die Abspaltung halte ich für äußerst interessant. Frage ist halt, ob es nicht Sinn macht nach der Abspaltung zu kaufen. (DVMT von EMC hat man mit 40% Discount bekommen und lief sehr gut seither). Die Abspaltung ist interessant, da Actelion ja schon 2(!) x ein Medikament entwickelt hat. Das gelang nicht vielen Biotechs. Dazu sind 4 Medikamente in der Phase 3. Wenn ich es richtig verstanden habe, dann basieren einige der 14 Medikamente auf einem Wirkstoff, den man für was anderes schon einsetzt. Es könnten also Erfahrungswerte vorliegen. Dazu wurden ja auch Millionen an FuE (200 mio /Halbjahr) investiert. Der CEO könnte sicher auch bei JNJ bleiben oder in Rente gehen. Er geht noch mal das Risiko ein was zu bewegen.

        Wenn hier wieder ein großes Medikament dabei ist, dann ist das ein Verzigfacher. JNJ ist dann gut dabei …

        Es vergehen aber auch noch ein paar Wochen und die Differenz zwischen Kurs und Angebot wird vllt. auch noch größer. Das war ja bei den ganzen anderen Übernahmen auch so.

  • Falls du die Aktie auch privat hast, dann würde ich mir mal Gedanken um die Steuern machen. Bei Übernahmen mit Cash&Aktien-Komponente kann der Cash-Anteil als Dividende (siehe Westgrund/Adler) gewertet werden. Das wäre bei 272 USD Kaufkurs, 280 USD Cash und 6 USD Aktien natürlich recht heftig. Dann hast du 280 USD Dividenden direkt mit 28% zu versteuern und stehst bei den Aktien dann dafür mit 5 – 272 = -267 USD im minus. Den “Verlust” kannst dann nur mit Aktiengewinnen verrechnen.

  • Ein Punkt hast vergessen. Bis jetzt ist nur ein Handel in Zürich geplant und bei 272 zu 6 USD kann das dann ganz schön teuer für manchen werden.

    M.E. sollte das Unternehmen aber mehr Wert sein, da man mehrere Medikamente in Phase 3 hat und es um insg. 14 Medikamente geht. Dazu steckt JNJ ja 0,5 Milliarden in das Unternehmen. Und man hatte im 1. HJ 200 mio FuE-Kosten.

    • nein, es ist 280 zu 272 plus “spesen” in Form des Spin offs. Und klar lohnt sich das nicht mit 5 Aktien. Das kann sich aber jeder Leser auch selber ausrechnen.

      • Ich meinte, dass der Verkauf des SpinOffs in Zürich teuer werden könnte, wenn man einen 0815-Broker hat. Das gilt auch bei deutlich mehr als 5 Aktien 😀 Selbst bei 100k Euro sind es nur rund 400 Aktien a 6 USD als SpinOff.

        Bei der Rendite macht mir der Euro Sorgen. Heute morgen waren es 3.5% + SpinOff. Das wäre eigentlich ohne USD-Risiko ganz nett gewesen.

  • As always thank you for sharing!

    since
    a) the price is very asymmetric (280 vs 5) this could create a lot of unwanted, small positions in some peoples portfolios “what is this? what do I need 20 of this shares, I’m happy with my J&J-money, I will sell this to the first guy I see”

    and

    b) it seems the CEO is very confident about the R&D pipeline

    maybe the SpinCo on a stand alone basis is also interesting. Seems like a perfect description from the Joel Greenblatt playbook.

  • Aren’t you buying shares in CHF?

  • Regarding the currency – are you saying you are not hedging because you are fine taking on some USD exposure? My understanding is that JNJ is paying $280 USD regardless of the exchange rate. If the CHF strengthens, you will lose, but win in if the CHF’s weakens (the deal price will be for more than 280 chf).

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