Some links

Some troubling Figures about loan volumes and credit quality

Prof. Damodaran (again) tries to value Spotify ahead of its IPO

A very nice illustration of the impact of volatility on investment returns

Why Cryptokitties could become something much bigger

Prem Watsa’s 2017 shareholder letter is worth reading

For Mexican stocks, insider trading seems to be normal

“Concierge Brands” can take away a lot of value form “Normal” brands

Some links

Prof. Damodaran is trying to value Spotify ahead of its “IPO”

A look into DE Shaw, one of the earliest and most successful Quant Hedge Funds

Must watch: Crypto currencies explained by John Oliver

Wyndham Worldwide looks like a potentially interesting Spin-off situation

US Company audit reports might be soon much more interesting to read 

Japanese Game companies could be worth a look

Forager Funds on why Dividends should be taxed higher in Australia

The return of the Travel Series (9): Expedia (EXPE) – Cheaper than I thought

Disclaimer: This is not investment advise !!! Do your own research !!!!
The guy who wrote this post just lost a lot of money with his Silver Chef position. You might even consider shorting his recommendations 😉

Background:

When I looked at Expedia almost exactly one year ago as part of my 2017 Travel Series my key take negative aways were as follows:

– CEO has super high salary (90 mn USD in 2015)
– top line growth, operating profit stagnant
– expensive acquisitions in 2015/2016, number of shares and debt increased significantly
– reported growth numbers not adjusted for acquisitions in investor presentation
– lots of share options

Additionally, the stock looked expensive:

At 119 USD per share, Bloomberg tells me that they have a trailing P/E of 54, an expected 2017 P/E of 22,3 and an EV/EBITDA of ~16. This means that a lot of growth is already priced in.

As we can see in the chart, the stock became at first even more expensive before dropping back to a level of around 100 USD / share:

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