Market commentary (including 20 rules to survive the “Corona crisis”, Metro Bank, Paul Hartmann)


Most readers know that I normally don’t do market comments, however this post will be an exception (and should therefore maybe ignored ?).

To be clear, I have no special information or personal opinion on how far the COVID virus will spread and what the ultimate effect of all this might be. Will there be a recession due to supply chain disruptions ? Will we see another stock market drop like 2002/2003 or 2008/2009 ? No idea, but in any case it makes sense to review what I think is the most reasonable way to behave for long term investors.

20 rules that might help you to survive, or at least sleep better

Situations like this are not unique and over the years I have created for myself some rules that might be helpful or not:

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Some links

Must read: Why the (VC backed) technology sector seems to look very similar to the US shale industry some years ago

John Kingham thinks that DIageo is a good company but overvalued

UndervaluedShares with a great feature on the Lundin Group and how to make money in the “Dark Corners” of the capital markets

Are travel related stocks now a “Buy” ?

The Rational Capitalist blog has an in depth look into Buffett’s share repurchases over the years

GlobalStockPicking likes Greatview Aseptic, a competitor to Tetrapak

A critical viewon the “secret sauce” of the Private Equity industry

All German Shares Part 17 (Nr. 326-350)

The next batch of 25 randomly selected German stocks.

In the last post, someone asked why I do not filter out certain stocks (Nanocaps etc.). I have thought of this, but decided against it.  The main reason is that some of these “Zombie’s” have really interesting stories that might contain important lessons. Plus there is a VERY small chance that a real gem is hiding somewhere, although I haven’t found one yet.

This time, I only put 3 stocks on my watch list, but some of the “passed” stocks have really interesting stories.

326. United Labels AG

United Labels is another child and survivor of the Dotcom boom. The 8.7 mn market cap company is active in licensing brands to producers of everyday articles like T-Shirts etc. Top line is however shrinking since a few years and this year they had to put their Spanish subsidiary into insolvency. “pass”.

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Some links

The always excellent Valuesque blog with some insights on how to manipulate round EPS numbers 

A great list of attributes from A16Z on how to analyze market place businesses

The epic Semper Augustus annual letter (128 pages…)

Another AirBnB scam, this time in London

Very interesting deep dive why most AI (startup) companies are mostly not software companies but service businesses 

The art of defining EBITDA for tech companies

Yetanothervalueblog with a deep dive into Wrestling (WWE)




All German Shares part 16 (Nr. 301-325)

At the moment I can keep the weekly frequency for this series. This time, the random generator only included 2 stocks that in my opinion are worth “watching” but some of the stocks covered have interesting histories.

301. Lotto24 AG

Lotto24 is providing online access to Germany’s state lottery. With a market cap of 353 mn, investors get a run rate of 5mn Profit. The high market cap is mostly a result of a successful take-over event of Zeal Group, which now seems to own 93% of the shares. a “pass” for me.

302. WCM Beteiligungs- und Grundbesitz Aktiengesellschaft

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Some links

Undervalued Shares has a great feature about the “Klement on Investing” blog

FTAlphaville is not impressed by Uber’s plans for profitability

Valuesque with another interesting  “accounting deep dive”, this time on Northgate Plc

2019 letter to shareholdersof TGV Intrinsic (incl. TomTom write-up)

The Annual letter 2019 of Tyro Capital includes some great stuff on stock picking

Bruce Packard on the current “Quant winter”

A great deep dive into the risks and opportunities for Spotify

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