Some links

A Netflix Doku on Abercrombie & Fitch looks like  a “must watch” for any investor interested in retail stocks

The ProfitHunting blog on Aussie LNG player Woodside Energy

A good reminder that consistent outperformance of active fund managers is the wrong metric to focus on

Great take on Twitter by Prof. Damodaran and some very strategic thoughts on Twitter from Ben Thompson

Interesting background story on vending machines

The Q1 report from Bireme is worth reading (Netflix)

Kerrisdale is short the “Trump SPAC”. Even among all the shitty SPACs, this one smells especially bad

All Danish Stocks part 6 – Nr. 51-60

And another batch of 10 randomly selected Danish shares, this time, none of them made it onto the watch list. We have now covered almost 1/3 of all Danish stocks.

51. Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S

Ringkjøbing Landbobank is a 3,3 bn EUR market cap bank active only in Denmark, that is surprisingly profitable with a ROE of ~15%. This is reflected in a very good share price performance and a rather high valuation at 20x trailing P/E.

ringbank

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ALL DANISH STOCKS PART 5 – NR. 41-50

Back to Denmark with a new batch of 10 randomly selected shares. What I have to say is that the Danish stock maket really offers a wide variety of companies. From a Fintech active in Africa, via shipping and concrete blocks over to Medtech, today’s selection has a lot of different business models. Four of them I found actually worth to “watch” this time.

 

41. SPENN Technology A/S 

SPENN is a 80 mn EUR market cap company that seems to offer a banking/trading app. The majority of the business seems to be in Africa (Zambia, Rwanda) via a company that was acquired in 2021. their offering seems to comprise (of course) Blockchain, Crypto, Payment and remittance services.

The stock chart looks quite uninspiring:

SPENN

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Some links

A Netflix pitch from Bireme Capital and a conversation with Evan Tindell from Bireme 

A very good overview on “customer based valuation” for fast growing companies

Five timeless investing lessons distilled from Arlington Value’s investor letters

Four easy ways to combine Value and Momentum

Some insights from Ben Evans how online marketing is evolving (and killing TV)

Interesting story on 30 year old Crypto Billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried

About that LME Nickel Short Squeeze and the potential consequences

Performance Q1 2022 – Comment: “Podcasts & Inflation”

In the first 3 months of 2021, the Value & Opportunity portfolio lost  -6,6% (including dividends, no taxes) against a loss of -8.6% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in the first 3M 2022:

Partners Fund TGV: -20,09%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: -3,67 %
Squad European Convictions -6,4%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos +0,42% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -4,29%
Greiff Special Situation -1,42%
Squad Aguja Special Situation -8,31%
Paladin One
-6,59%

Performance review

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Some links

Asian Century Stocks with a nice deep dive into Thai Beverage

Softbank’s Tech Hedge fund is being liquidated, with losses expected to reach up to USD 7 bn

Marc Rubinstein on the rise of fast payments (UK & Brazil)

Hybrid working V.1.0 doesn’t look very promising so far

Interesting notes from the book “10 1/2 lessons from Experience, Perspectives on Fund Management” written by Paul Marshall (Marshall Wace)

Maynard Payton with a great exercise: looking at the Energy consumption of all his portfolio companies

Annual letter to investors from Danish Fund manager Symmetry (23% CAGR since 2013)

Panic Journal Russia/Ukraine edition Part 3

The war

The war is now going on for more than a month. Every other day there are rumors that progress has been made with regard to negotiations and the Russian army is failing or withdrawing, but the bombings are going on and more and more Ukrainians are fleeing (~4mn at the time of writing).

In contrast, the major stock market indices, in particular the US indices but also the DAX are at the same level or even higher now than before the invasion. BTFD has worked and again and these days “anything is good for stocks” seems to be the only motto.

One explanation that I have read is that Russia and Ukraine are only 2% of Global GDP, so a “loss” of these countries is no big deal. Personally, I do think that this is not a very useful number. Russian oil and gas is powering a significant amount of European (and Global) GDP. A supply disruption from Russian oil and gas would impact a much larger share of GDP globally and might make Covid-19 supply chain disruption like a toddler party. But the oil and gas is still flowing, so why worry ?

Just a few days ago, the CEO of BASF gave an interview warning against a full embargo against Russia, because it will “destroy the German economy”. He was stating the obvious, but especially BASF in my opinion shares a lot of responsibility for the dependency on Russian gas.

As for the endgame: As much as I hope for a quick, clean victory for Ukraine, I do think that this is the most unlikely scenario. Russia and Putin cannot afford to lose which is also the essence of an interview with one of Putin’s former advisors.

Tunnel vision

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Protector Forsikring ASA – The Scandinavian “Baby Markel/Berkshire” ?

The company:

Protector Forsikring ASA is a name that came up more often in my “stream”. It is a Norwegian “Challenger” Insurance company founded in 2007 (and IPOed in 2008) that has been growing nicely over the past years and doesn’t look expensive.

The stock price has been quite volatile but recently the stock has reached new highs and long time shareholders should be quite happy:

Protector

The high level financial indicators look very attractive: A relatively Ok valuation with an impressive ROE:

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Some links

Some really good advice on how and for what to use Twitter

Morgan Housel with a big post on 17 “common mental models

Value Situations with a write up on Spin-off Wickes Group Plc

Interesting Twitter thread on how much wheat could actually be missing from world markets due to the Ukraine War (Spoiler: very little). From the same author some facts on fertilizer as well.

Despite the “tech crash”, private Ultra Fast delivery start-up Getir is able to raise money at a record valuation

Some thoughts on what might have triggered Buffett’s interest in Alleghany

The low beta premium seems to be mostly an illiquidity premium

Some links

Let’s start with a Goodie: Pareto Securities is holding its annual TechIT conference on March 30th. It is a virtual event and also open for non-professional investors. And it is good value because it is free.

GlobalStockPicking with a very nice write-up on Swedish MedTech RaySearch

In depth interview on the “metaverse” with a 19 year Second Life veteran

Marc Rubinstein on the current Russia issues of Airplane Leasing companies (AerCap)

Good deep dive into the “premium alcohol” market from Lindsell Train

A comprehensive market update from Prof. Damodaran reflecting the impact from the war in UKraine

Heat pumps look like a no brainer these days

A couple of really helpful matrices to cluster investments

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