Some links

Why ICOs issued by companies might not be that positive for its shareholders

The Brooklyn Investor has similar thoughts on Buffetts 100 bn cash pile than I had

Reckitt Benckiser might be a high debt low growth “time bomb”

Monish Pabrai’s simple spin-off investing strategy

Nate from Oddball sees very little value these days

Steel Partners Preferreds might be worth a look

Forager observes that animal spirits are back in the mining sector


  • Hi,  My name is Andres (Spain), I wrote you before. Have you take a look to Aryzta? Please find attach last VII with interview to Spanish asset manager Francisco Parames interview in which he suggest as investment idea.I took a look myself. It seems another ackman’s platform gone bust.I think Parames may be is a bit to optimistic given underlying revenue and volume trends and new management reluctance to provide guidance.What i don t like is:. Difficult to know the real reason why long term contract are leaving or decreasing their volume.(company explanation: decrease risk to one supplier, previous management investment in own brand competing against customers) .Difficult to know if there is a change customer  habits.No clarity in company real profitability given the amount of recent year acquisitions and “acquistions and exceptional adjustments”.

    Regards Andres.

    Sent from my Samsung Galaxy A3 2016 – powered by Three

    • Mr. Parames is a great commissionist to say the least. Hi funds portray a management fee of 1.8%, redemption fee of 4%, and currently a performance of -1.1% vs +5.8% of their reference. BRAVO! All combined gives you a (-1.8 – 4 – 1.1 – 5.8) % = -12.8 % negative performance vs the benchmark. Great performance, indeed.

    • Parames funds remind me a bit about my fellows of Skagen Funds…

    • Aryzta seems to be a company in trouble. At a first glance, there seem to be some starnge items in the balance sheet (hybrid debt etc.) and the cashflow statement is really hard to read.

  • Seems not only Buffet but yourself too are bearish 😉
    Reviewing your latest posts, your investment ideas seem to cool down a bit / slow in frequency. Other sites present similar perspectives with expensive stocks according to various valuations, and only a few EM incl. emerging Europe may offer some value perspective..
    I guess this makes it difficult to bet in western companies. Maybe it is time to revisit some easter europe companies (thinking of Zavarovalnica Triglav or Pozavarovalnica Sava).

    • As I have mentioned many times, I try not ot predict the stock market. But quite obviously we live in a time where almost all “good” stocks are expnesive and most “cheap” stocks have structural problems. Plus, special situations are called that way because they don’t appear on a regular basis.

      On top of that I think I have “developed” away from looking only at historic valuation multiples. And yes, in general I take things more slowly theses days.

      But being still ~90% invested, I don’t think that I am too bearish 😉 Just cautious and this now for quite some time.

    • The bearish sentiment is a bit frustrating. The latest Shiller indices ( are discouraging and insofar it seems only some eastern europe and a couple more do offer some potential… There is then Norway offering high quality, western standards and a reasonable CAPE.

      I am then considering to reduce CH and move towards Russia/EastEurope, Norway/Nordics, China, and maybe some small cap exposure (though small caps seem at higher risk)… Still undecided.

      Recently I got a wonderful example about financial markets predictability….. Trying to predict financial market evolution is like driving a car forward only by looking at the back mirror (ie. without vision through the front windshield).

      Interesting as well the starcapital research docs, where they show that market/economy/financial predictions have a 30% error (typically betw 25-35% range!)

  • Thanks for the post. Do you have any thoughts on US mall REITS? The sector seems predestined for value investors… Or a value trap?

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