Why ICOs issued by companies might not be that positive for its shareholders
The Brooklyn Investor has similar thoughts on Buffetts 100 bn cash pile than I had
Reckitt Benckiser might be a high debt low growth “time bomb”
Monish Pabrai’s simple spin-off investing strategy
Nate from Oddball sees very little value these days
Steel Partners Preferreds might be worth a look
Forager observes that animal spirits are back in the mining sector
Hi,Â My name is Andres (Spain), I wrote you before. Have you take a look to Aryzta? Please find attach last VII with interview to Spanish asset manager Francisco Parames interview in which he suggest as investment idea.I took a look myself. It seems another ackman’s platform gone bust.I think Parames may be is a bit to optimistic given underlying revenue and volume trends and new management reluctance to provide guidance.What i don t like is:. Difficult to know the real reason why long term contract are leaving or decreasing their volume.(company explanation: decrease risk to one supplier, previous management investment in own brand competing against customers)Â .Difficult to know if there is a change customerÂ habits.No clarity in company real profitability given the amount of recent year acquisitions and “acquistions and exceptional adjustments”.
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Mr. Parames is a great commissionist to say the least. Hi funds portray a management fee of 1.8%, redemption fee of 4%, and currently a performance of -1.1% vs +5.8% of their reference. BRAVO! All combined gives you a (-1.8 – 4 – 1.1 – 5.8) % = -12.8 % negative performance vs the benchmark. Great performance, indeed.
Parames funds remind me a bit about my fellows of Skagen Funds…
Aryzta seems to be a company in trouble. At a first glance, there seem to be some starnge items in the balance sheet (hybrid debt etc.) and the cashflow statement is really hard to read.
Seems not only Buffet but yourself too are bearish 😉
Reviewing your latest posts, your investment ideas seem to cool down a bit / slow in frequency. Other sites present similar perspectives with expensive stocks according to various valuations, and only a few EM incl. emerging Europe may offer some value perspective..
I guess this makes it difficult to bet in western companies. Maybe it is time to revisit some easter europe companies (thinking of Zavarovalnica Triglav or Pozavarovalnica Sava).
As I have mentioned many times, I try not ot predict the stock market. But quite obviously we live in a time where almost all “good” stocks are expnesive and most “cheap” stocks have structural problems. Plus, special situations are called that way because they don’t appear on a regular basis.
On top of that I think I have “developed” away from looking only at historic valuation multiples. And yes, in general I take things more slowly theses days.
But being still ~90% invested, I don’t think that I am too bearish 😉 Just cautious and this now for quite some time.
In your good times you were invested 95% 😉 hihihi
The bearish sentiment is a bit frustrating. The latest Shiller indices (www.starcapital.de/research-en) are discouraging and insofar it seems only some eastern europe and a couple more do offer some potential… There is then Norway offering high quality, western standards and a reasonable CAPE.
I am then considering to reduce CH and move towards Russia/EastEurope, Norway/Nordics, China, and maybe some small cap exposure (though small caps seem at higher risk)… Still undecided.
Recently I got a wonderful example about financial markets predictability….. Trying to predict financial market evolution is like driving a car forward only by looking at the back mirror (ie. without vision through the front windshield).
Interesting as well the starcapital research docs, where they show that market/economy/financial predictions have a 30% error (typically betw 25-35% range!)
Thanks for the post. Do you have any thoughts on US mall REITS? The sector seems predestined for value investors… Or a value trap? http://www.ttvalueinvesting.com/lets-talk-real-estate/
I don’t know much about these US mall Reits. I am wondering however why the author of that post doesn’t talk about leverage and debt at all.