value and opportunity

Following an annual tradition once a year I’ll try to review my current portfolio by writing short summaries/update for each individual position. Unfortunately, I didn’t manage to do this before year end in 2021, but better late than never.

This year, 17 of the 27 companies from last year are still in the portfolio and I have 11 new positions which again looks like quite high turnover. Again, part of that high turnover is driven by “killing” the travel basket and creating a new “Energy Transition /Electrification” basket.

Overall, the number of positions is on the upper end of my preferred range of 20-30 titles. So any new investments will need to be financed through a sale of existing positions.

The summaries of the previous years can be found here:

My 21 (+6) Investments for 2021
My 20 investments for 2020
My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

1. TFF Group (6,0%)

The “Last stock standing” of the initial investments from 11 years ago. Family owned oak barrel manufacturer. Has grown well over many years due to Asian demand for oak aged French wines and opportunistic acquisitions. Whisky barrels have added to  growth.  Currently numbers are bumpy because they have been organically building US operations from scratch which required significant capital outlay and no sales. When (and if) sales are coming thorough, sales growth and margins might increase significantly over the next years. This could be a stock who could perform better in 2022. “Hold”

2. G. Perrier (5,5%)

French small cap, specialist for electric installations with a strong position in Nuclear maintenance. Good growth despite economic headwinds. Has recovered well from the Covid-19 shock with a share price finishing 2021 at an ATH. Top line in the first 9M rebounded significantly and they managed to enter a new industry with Defence and Aviation. Back in 2013 I bought it as a cheap stock, it turned out to be a well run, decently growing company. “Long term Hold”.

3. Thermador (4,9%)

Thermador is a French based construction supply distribution company. Distinct “outsider style” corporate culture. After a very resilient 2020, they could keep the momentum with significant growth in 9M 2021. A very resilient business and a very resilient company which is reflected in a share price close to ATHs. “Long term hold”.

4. Admiral (7,3%)

“Outsider style” direct internet insurance company. UK based, large cost advantages, management/founders own significant share positions. Several growth projects on the way. Especially the European subsidiaries seem to make good progress with a long growth runway in front of them, although the first 6M in 221, UK did better than Europe. 2020 and 2021 showed the strength and resilience of the business model.  “Long term hold”.

5. Bouvet (4,8%)

IT consulting company from Norway. When I bought the stock 7 years ago, the stock price previously had been hit hard by oil decline, Statoil was the largest client. The business and the stock showed a strong recovery since 2016. I was unsure about the stock in some years but the company kept growing. In early 2020, I sold half of the position (much too early of course). The company surprises me very year and has been growing double digits 9M 2021. “Hold”

6. Partners Fund (5,9%)

An investment into a fund run by a close friend. Mathias is a “Munger style” investor with a relative concentrated portfolio of “moat” companies, many of them from the US. I think it is a good complimentary exposure for my investment style and he has been ouperforming my portfolio by some percentage points per year.. At the time of writing, 2021 looks like another very good year with ~+34% YTD, And I am sure he will do fine over the next 10-20 years. “Long term hold”.

7. Naked Wines (5,8%)

UK-based online wine retailing company. This is used to be a “bet” on the  CEO which came on board when Majestic acquired online wine company Naked Wine. The company transformed in 2019 by selling all the traditional retail business which was a bold but turned out to be a blessing with regard to Covid-19 . However, also the CEO decided to retire early which was not so good. They really executed well in 2020 and seem to do really well in the US market. However the stock seems to become a “hedge fund hotel” with extreme volatility around earnings. I reduced the position by around 0% at 7,60 GBP/share. “Hold”.

8. VEF (formerly Vostok Emerging Finance (3,2%)

This is the sister company of Vostok New Ventures (that I sold in 2020), but specializing on Emerging Markets Fintech. The fund has a large weighting in Brazil which I find very interesting. The management runs the portfolio extremely patient and only invests when they see a real opportunity. The share price has recovered nicely from the Covid-19 shock and is again at ATH, however I missed to add as I had originally intended. The largest position, Braziolian Fintech Creditas seems to do really well. “Long term hold”. 

9. Zur Rose AG (3,2%)

Swiss Company Zur Rose AG is one of two consolidators in Europe’s online pharmacy market. They have been growing fast through acquisitions but now need to prove that they can make money. Structurally there is a lot of future potential especially with regard to tele-medicine and online prescriptions,  The Covid-19 crisis has destroyed a lot of the “red tape” especially in the German Health sector and made Zur Rose one of the winners in the “covid-19 stock lottery”. Zur Rose became a “Hot stock” this year with significant volatility and a significant drop towards the end of the year as the launch of E-Prescriptions in Germany have been delayed. Nevertheless I want to keep the position for some time as I do think E-prescriptions will be a long term growth driver. “Hold”.

10. Netfonds AG (2.5%)

Netfonds AG is maybe the most important result of my “All German Shares” series. It is a little, under the radar German financial services company that is active in several business lines, among others, fund administration and services for financial advisors.  The company is growing consistently and has a very “entrepreneurial” approach, a little bit similar to Mutui Online from Italy. They now seem to be able to scale profits. They exited one of their business lines against shares in another listed company (VMR). “Hold”.

11. Sixt AG Preference shares (4.1%)

Sixt is a company I have been admiring for a long time but never managed to “pull the trigger” to buy. Finally, during the dark days of Covid-19, I managed to build up a position in the cheaper pref shares. Clearly, the Sixt business, which relies to a large extent on airports, has been hit hard. However I think they are one of the players who will come out stronger than the competition. They already secured some interesting US locations during the crisis and luckily sold their stake in Sixt Leasing at a good price before the crisis. On top, they are very active with regard to new forms of shared mobility and car ownership. The biggest risk is that legendary founder and majority owner Erich Sixt needs to pass on management to the second generation. 2021 seems to become a record ear as due to the current shortage of new cars, Sixt benefits both, with high rental rates and high prices for used cars. “Long term hold” or even “add” if the sons turn out to be alright. What I still find hard to understand is the spread between pref shares and common shares. “Long term hold”.

12. Group Financier Richemont (4,1%)

Richemont, the Swiss Luxury Group is most famous for its “Super Brand” Cartier. This was another Covid-19 “bargain”. I had looked at the company before, but Covid-19 provided an interesting entry point also based on their “fortress” balance sheet. Richemont has some exposure to fine watches which could be in some kind of secular stagnation/decline, however just recently they made an interesting move in China with Alibaba. As with Sixt, legendary Chairman Johan Rupert is already in his 70ies and succession might be an issue. 2021 looks like a great year, as Chinese consumers seem to go absolutely crazy for luxury items. Richemont also saw some activist pressure and is contemplating to sell/spinn-off the Yoox division. “Hold”.

13. Washtec AG (1.9%)

Another Covid-19 “bargain” which didn’t recover as much as I hoped. The company is one of the market leaders for building car washes. This is in principle a decent business with a nice “aftermarket sales” portion. The company was already in some kind of reorganization before Covid-19 hit. 2021 saw a solid rebound, Q3 2021 was a new EBIT record overall. Nevertheless, the shares underperformed again. “Hold”.

14. Mediqon AG (0,8%)

Mediqon is one of the  remainders of my “German Basket” attempt. The tiny company that tries something like a “Constellation Group” roll up of small software providers in Germany after selling its core business. For some reasons, the share price went up like crazy in 2021 and they managed to secure a big capital increase from the US. This was nice but it alos means that expectations are high. “Hold”.

15. AOC Fund (4,2%)

My second fund investment. This time into an “activist fund”, most famous because of its successful campaign on Stada. They take a pretty concentrated long term approach and actively work with/in company boards. Despite the fantastic historic performance I am also trying to learn from them. 2021 looks like a “meh” year but long term they should continue to outperform. “Hold”.

16. FBD Holdings Plc (2,9%)

Another “Covid-19 bargain” purchase which has clearly disappointed. I had looked at FBD before, but only after Covdi-19 the stock looked so cheap that I couldn’t resist. It is the leading domestic P&C insurer in ireland with generally a good profitability. Based on their “normal” profitability the stock is dirt cheap, although the business model is clearly not as good as the one from Admiral. Unfortunately, the CEO who turned the company around left and they are still fighting on Covid-19 payouts with Pub owners. One of the additional topics to factor in is the current inflation which often is a problem for Car insurers as claims inflate faster than premiums. “Watch”.

17. Play Magnus (1,3%)

A more opportunistic investment into a recently IPOed Norwegian online chess company with World Champion Magnus Carlsen as main shareholder and “official face”. The company has an interesting strategy by making chess both more accessible and promoting a faster style of chess. They want to monetize it via paid content and subscription courses. With Covid-19, interest in online chess increased a lot, helped by the surprising success of Netflix’s “The Queens Gambit” series about a female chess “Wunderkind”. Also the new faster formats make chess more accessible via platforms like Twitch. The company also launched a million dollar tournament series with the next one starting on December 26th. I was lucky being able to sell out 1/3 of the share close to the top at 28,5 NOK per share. I bought a few back later in the year as I think it is a really interesting story. “Hold & Watch”

18. Siemens Energy AG (1,5%)

Again, an opportunistic “Spin-off” investment. Siemens Energy was spun off from Siemens recently and includes the valuable Siemens-Gamesa participation. In my opinion, the remaining business (Gas turbines, grid technology etc.) is priced much too cheap and the portfolio of the company prevents many ESG funds to invest despite the interesting underlying technology (Hydrogen, grid, offshore wind mills). As with a few other cases, I was lucky to sell ~25% of the position close to the highs at EUR 33 per share.

Looking at recent developments (e.g EU considering NatGas as “green”), I think the company has potential if (and that’s a big if) they execute well. “Hold”. 

19. Alimentation Couche-Tard (3,8%)

ACT entered the portfolio in 2021. It was the rare chance to get into a high quality compounder at a reasonable valuation (13-14x trailing PE). The company is famous for its decentralized, entrepreneurial culture and excellent capital allocation. After a failed bid for Carrefour, ACT seems to have fallen out of favor with some investors which opened this opportunity. Of course there are some issues such as the issue how EV charging will develop and certain ESG topics (Tobacco sales), but overall this is one for the long run although it needs careful watching (EV charging). “Long term hold”.

20. Meier & Tobler AG (3,6%)

Meier & Tobler is one of three stocks I discovered through my “All Swiss Shares” series. The company itself runs a relatively boring service & distribution business in Switzerland, providing heating and cooling equipment and services to households. The stock became cheap because they bungled a merger with one of their biggest competitors.  However it seems that the biggest problems are behind them and the stock looked quite cheap despite offering a relatively solid mid to long term outlook. “Long term hold”.

21. Schaffner AG (3,1%)

Schaffner is another Swiss discovery. It is a small company that has undergone a significant transition over the last months/years in order to concentrate on the current trend towards Electrification. The stock looks relatively cheap compared to the underlying quality and reported growth rates. If the company would be valued like other similar Swiss stocks, they should have significant potential. “Hold”.

22. BioNTech AG (2,8%)

BioNTech was an “inspiration” from the beginning of 2021. It was meant to be a “bet” both on the founders and the technology as well as a hedge against a prolonged Covid-19 pandemic. I sold around 1/3 of the position close to peak prices, but I plan to hold BioNTech for the mid-to-long term as I think that there is a decent chance that BioNTech can develop the mRNA platform also into a pipeline against other diseases, especially cancer which was the original purpose of the company. The billions in cash they made on the Covid vaccine could speed up the process. “Hold”.

23. ABB Group (2,0%)

ABB is the third result of my All Swiss Shares series. After years of stagnation, ABB has been and is still undergoing a pretty significant transformation process an trying to concentrate on high margin businesses. 2022 could be very interesting as the plan to IPO/Spin-off their EV charging division. Overall, I do think the company could benefit from the trend towards electrification, but is is a more opportunistic investment. “Hold”.

24. Euronext NV (1,9%)

Euronext is the company running the Euronext stock exchange the reason to invest was a relatively cheap valuation compared to competitors, most likely driven by the acquisition of Borsa Italiano from LSE which required a rather large capital increase. I participated in the capital increase but the sold the additional shares at around 88 EUR. Overall, this is clearly a more opportunistic investment and might need to go if I find better alternatives. “Hold & watch”.

25. Aker Horizons (1,1%).

Aker Horizons is a company that is clearly on the more risky side of what I normally do. It has been IPOed as a majority owned subsidiary of the Aker Group and undles all their “green activities” such asl Renewable Development, Carbon Capture, Offshore Wind and Clean Hydrogen through subsidiaries of which 3 are again listed.

The more I read about them, the more I like the general approach of the Aker Group, which is owned by the self made billionaire Kjell Inge Rokke, who is the richest man in Norway. His son is the CEO of Aker Horizon. My impression is that despite its size, Aker is “super entrepreneurial” and has no problems to attract top talent in Norway. It needs to b seen how the different activities develop, but this is a situation where I might add and make it a “real” position over time. “Hold & Add”.

26. Nexans SA (1,1%)

Nexans is a French company that specializes in manufacturing and deploying big electricity cables, on-shore and off-shore. The stock is part of my “electrification basket”. Nexans is currently undergoing a transformation to exclusively focus on the most promising areas and is also willing to roll up competitors. the industry is capital intensive but I do see the chance for a multi year up-cycle. “Hold”

27. NKT (1,1%)

NKT is basically the Danish version of Nexans, however already with  bigger focus on electrification. At some pint in time I will need to chose between Nexans and NKT, but for the time being, it is a “hold”.

28. Orsted (1,9%)

Orsted, the former Danish Oil company called Dong, is another member of my Energy Transition/Electrification basket. Orsted completely went out of fossil upstream over the last years and now only concentrates on developing and running renewable power plants with a focus on offshore. Orsted is considered one of the leading developers and operators globally in this field and has a long pipeline of projects around the world. The P&L of Orsted is hard to read as development costs are significant and one off profits prom minority sales are quite frequent. Nevertheless I do think that Orsted is a “long term hold” where I would add on weakness.