Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!
Agfa-Gevaert was on my research list for some time now. Fellow blogger Undervalued Shares than triggered my renewed interest with their post from a few days ago and one of my best “Special situations” ideas ever was a Belgian company (Sapec).
I’ll try to summarize the part of the post that deals with Agfa:
- Active Ownership, a relatively new but successful German activist fund (Stada) has build up a position (~14%] and board membership (actually the Chairman) in Agfa Gevaert, the traditional German-Belgian film / imaging company
- Despite having some interesting assets, Agfa didn’t create shareholder value over a long time
- opaque reporting and a 1 bn EUR pension liability made it unattractive to stock market investors
- In 2020, Agfa managed to sell part of its Healthcare IT segment for 975 mn EUR
- Initially, the stock went up to ~5 EUR based on the first info on the sale but hasn’t fully recovered yet
Another batch of 25 randomly selected German stocks. This time I identified 5 candidates for my watch list amongst them.
451. Biofrontera AG
BioFrontera is a 151 mn EUR market cap specialty pharma company in the field of dermatology (skin cancer). The company actually has a product in the market and shows decent grows, especially in Germany and the US. The company is still loss making in the first 9M 2019, but the loss narrowed significantly. The “Corona Crash” pushed the stock price back to before sales went up:
My last “panic Journal” post is now 3 weeks old. What has changed ? If I look at my learnings, not much. We still don’t really know how many people have been infected, how it transmits, what is the actual cause of the deaths, if there are treatments and when we will have a vaccine. The only major difference is that toilet paper now is available in my local drug store every day and and stocks are even higher than back then.
It took me so long to write this, because every time I start to write something, I discover that someone else has already written about it, so I try to focus on stuff I haven’t seen elsewhere.
Where is my bailout (Leoni, Adidas, Start ups, Car purchase incentives)
Disclaimer: This is not investment advise. Please do your own research !!!
FBD is a local Irish Insurance company that I first wrote about in early 2015 when the stock look cheap. Luckily I didn’t invest back then as 7 months later FBD got already in trouble mainly due to under reserving plus another few skeletons in the closet. A month later, Prem Watsa came to the rescue with a slightly unusual deal structure.
What caught my eye now again (thanks to a friend mentioning the stock) is the relatively weak share price combined with super strong 2019 results and no bounce back from the Covid-19 crisis levels:
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, please do your own research !!!
I made two smaller purchase over the last few days:
- Interactive Brokers at ~39,75 USD/Share, 1,4% of the portfolio
- Coface at ~5,70 ER per share, 1,5% of the portfolio
A quick summary of the ideas behind it:
And the next batch of (mostly) randomly selected German stocks. The only exception I do make for my selection is when one company owns a big stake or is related closely to another listed company. Then I’ll try to look at them in sequence. This time, 5 stocks made it onto the watch list.
426. MBB SE
Another listed “Mittelstands” holding company with a 317 mn EUR market cap. Looking at the stock chart we can see, that between 2015 and 2017 the stock price went up significantly, Since then the stock is on a downward trend, despite share repurchases:
Another 25er batch of German stocks based on my random selection criteria. This time the result are 3 new entries into my watch list.
401. Kampa AG
Insolvent “zombie” stock. Pass.
402. Dinkelacker AG
At the time of writing, it seems that the worst is over at least for the developing world. Numbers of newly infected persons are shrinking and in the Epicenter, Wuhan, life slowly seems to open up again. Yes, the number of deaths is still rising but this is to be expected as there is at least a 10-14 day delay in deaths compared to new infections.
All in all, it looks that “the hammer” including lock downs seems to have worked for the time being. For me time to think about two areas:
- What did I learn in the last few weeks ?
- What should I focus on going forward ?
Halftime !!! I covered now more than 50% of the German stock universe which is around 800 shares. In this post you’ll see still some entries that I have written pre-crisis that I then had to update significantly. Overall these 25 stocks resulted in 6 watch list candidates which is clearly above average.
376. Instant IPO Holding AG
In the first 3 months 2020, the Value & Opportunity portfolio lost -17.7% (including dividends, no taxes) against a loss of -24.6% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all perfomance indices).
Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in Q1 2020:
Partners Fund TGV: -19.5%
Squad European Convictions -21.9%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos -10.53% (in GBP)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -21.6%
Evermore Global Value -32.2%(USD)
Greiff Special Situation -10.6%
Squad Aguja Special Situation -13.8%