This post is written mostly for myself in order to document my thoughts and actions and to learn from my obvious mistakes. But I promise that the blog won’t turn into a short term trading site !!
Today was a lot worse than I expected. Who would have expected that OPEC members disagree and the Oil price would tank more than 30% overnight ? In general, lower oil prices are good for most economies, but such a move will create some issues with regard to margin loans, counter party risk, indebted frackers etc etc.
So instead of the expected Monday “Corona panic” we have now the “Corona + Oil super panic”. Plus some strange moves like the EUR gaining strongly against the USD, despite Europe always being in the weaker position, even now with the Corona Virus.
Nevertheless, I started to put some money at work. Surprisingly not in the tourism sector, as I need to do more homework there. Not everyone might have read the comments but this is what I bought today:
My long term readers know that I did a lot of research on travel stocks in the past, however with little result other than a only slightly profitable investment into Expedia.
With the current situation, I decided to have a quick look at the travel sector again.
Up until now, the tourism industry has been seen as a secular growth industry, mainly due to 2 mega trends: Emerging market middle class tourists and older, more wealthy first world tourists were driving tourist numbers and subsectors such as cruises or AirBnB rooms. Just last year, “overtourism” became a major trend in social media, I guess this problem will not be a big issue in 2020.
Most readers know that I normally don’t do market comments, however this post will be an exception (and should therefore maybe ignored ?).
To be clear, I have no special information or personal opinion on how far the COVID virus will spread and what the ultimate effect of all this might be. Will there be a recession due to supply chain disruptions ? Will we see another stock market drop like 2002/2003 or 2008/2009 ? No idea, but in any case it makes sense to review what I think is the most reasonable way to behave for long term investors.
20 rules that might help you to survive, or at least sleep better
Situations like this are not unique and over the years I have created for myself some rules that might be helpful or not:
The next batch of 25 randomly selected German stocks.
In the last post, someone asked why I do not filter out certain stocks (Nanocaps etc.). I have thought of this, but decided against it. The main reason is that some of these “Zombie’s” have really interesting stories that might contain important lessons. Plus there is a VERY small chance that a real gem is hiding somewhere, although I haven’t found one yet.
This time, I only put 3 stocks on my watch list, but some of the “passed” stocks have really interesting stories.
326. United Labels AG
United Labels is another child and survivor of the Dotcom boom. The 8.7 mn market cap company is active in licensing brands to producers of everyday articles like T-Shirts etc. Top line is however shrinking since a few years and this year they had to put their Spanish subsidiary into insolvency. “pass”.
At the moment I can keep the weekly frequency for this series. This time, the random generator only included 2 stocks that in my opinion are worth “watching” but some of the stocks covered have interesting histories.
301. Lotto24 AG
Lotto24 is providing online access to Germany’s state lottery. With a market cap of 353 mn, investors get a run rate of 5mn Profit. The high market cap is mostly a result of a successful take-over event of Zeal Group, which now seems to own 93% of the shares. a “pass” for me.
302. WCM Beteiligungs- und Grundbesitz Aktiengesellschaft