All Belgian Shares – The Grand Final
As promised last time, this is the summary post for the “All Belgian Shares” series. If you click this link you will see all 10 posts as Blog search results.
In the end, I put 28 stocks onto my larger watchlist.
As my watch list got honestly too long and unproductive, I started to manage my watchlist more systematically so that I can hopefully prioritize things better in the future. The main feature of my new watchlist design are 2 main inputs:
- A Quality score between 0 (shitty) and 9 (perfect) based initially on a high level assessment of factors that I find relevant
- A rudimentary caclulated fair value and a resulting upside potential
In a later post, I will this explain a little bit more in depth, but here is the result for the 28 Belgian shares that I will continue to track in one way or the other:
I have sorted them first by “quality” and then secondly, within the quality score by potential upside. As mentioned, the “fair value” is very subjective and high level. This is more a gut feeling and would need to be further refined in a deeper analysis. My priority is clearly on the higher quality stocks, with a score of 5 and upwards. And amongst them on those with a clear upside. Lotus Bakeries for instance, is clearly one of the highest quality stocks I have seen in a whicle, but it is just too expensive.
The ones I consider really low quality, I will revisit rather sporadically, if at all (or if a reader writes me why it would be interesting).
Thankfully, my only Belgian Portfolio company, EVS looks both, high quality and undervalued. I would not completely rule out to invest into a company with a lower quality score than 5, especially if there is a positive fundamental trajectory, but in general, I will prioritize what I perceive as quality.
Overall, there were clearly a few very interesting companies in Belgium that I didn’t have on my radar screen, so it was clearly worth it. I have however not decided yet where to go next. So I have to leave my readers with that Cliff hanger.
One remark at the end: For some strange reason, Belgium is one of the very few European countries into which I never had the opportunity to travel yet. After that series, Belgium is clearly on my travel list for the coming years.
value and opportunity 
Belgium really has a lot of exciting companies, many thanks for the great overview. My only concern, what is the experience with reclaiming Belgian withholding tax on dividends? How complicated is it and how many years (?) did you have to wait?
Nobody suggests spain. Hahaha …. Their cronnie capitalism, wherein everything is infected by its prior regime, makes the country uninvestable. The perfect playground for cheap tourism, alcohol & other drugs out of control is the only reason spain is in Europe. Not for investments….
Great comment, as always. Thanks!
In addition to @cktest, a great place to visit and (still) not well know is Moresnet, close to the German border and Aachen. I’ve been there some years ago. Kind of lost but impressive place, the Museum has a very interesting and peculiar collection. Best suited for a visit on a misty, drizzly day, when the weather meets perfectly the typical ambience of the Ardennes.
More here: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/reise/die-zinkminen-von-neutral-moresnet-in-belgien-17378848.html?GEPC=s5
If u ever do get near Brüssel, make sure to visit the Fabrikverkauf factory outlet of Neuhaus Pralines, super selection to try your way across…
IMO nice places that I visited in Belgium: Bruges/Brügge, Gent, Ypres/Ieper. Less interesting: the coast. On the to-visit list: Brussels, Antwerp, maybe the Ardennes.
I think Poland could be interesting. Quite a diverse field of companies and surely some value to be had somewhere.
Polen? Viele unterbewertet small caps und das Land hat gute Aussichten, aber die Sprache wird eine Herausforderung.
Thank you for doing up that table and the scoring system, I really love this series of posts. I get to learn about all sorts of companies I wouldn’t ordinarily consider. I have yet to buy one yet, but maybe some day 😀
Would you consider doing Ireland? Not very many companies there, it’s in English, Wexboy did it before, but a long time has passed since!
Greece is the place to be. Hot weather and cold ice cream (manufacturer)…
Unfortunately, Zschäppitz killed that with his bullish post on Greece.
Italy? some interesting micro/medium caps like Ilpra, Omer, Valtecne, Cembre, Zignago, ALA, Franchi,…
I am afraid that they will delist faster than I can analyse them 😀
Portugal? Tiny, quick, but a half dozen interesting names. Might be one for the summer…
Finland!
And why ? It’s very cold up there and I don’t speak or understand their strange language.
The UK?
I would need 5 years for that.
They do have hot blondes and drink like people from Veneto but without the blasphemy, though…
Wha? But that’s easy, tiny little children even, speak it herein! (Häh? Helppoa kuin heinänteko! Pienet pirpanatkin sitä puhuu). And it has been sickly warm in F, particularly in Utsjoki. Check the map. And yet, I’d prefer Sweden. Plenty of quality companies. Cheap, especially for foreigners, due to weak SEK.