value and opportunity

This week was quite busy, with (at least) 5 of my companies releasing 2025 numbers, some more preliminary than others. Overall it was a “mixed bad”. Some good, some not so good. Let’s jump in:

Frosta

Frosta made a premliminary earnings announcement that was clearly below my expectations and at the lower end of the guidance. Thanks god, I covered my Axx with that statement in my write-up from earier this week:

“One important thing to understand with Frosta is that they don’t try to smooth earnings much, at least not to the upside. So you might always be in for some surprise either at the 6 month mark or annual report. Their guidance is usually very wide. Sometimes they decide to increase marketing expenses significantly which lowers profit in the current year but boosts revenues in the next year. In the long run, this has turned out very well for shareholders but for “weak hands” this can be a little bit unnerving.”

I guess this was once again such an event. Net income actually declined -12% in 2025. On the other side, growth of the Frosta Brand with ~16% and the ready made meals with almost 18% in 2026 is far above the market growth. So Frosta is taking significant market share. The dividend will remain at 2,40 EUR. They guide towards overall growth between 4-9% and a net margin of 4-8% in 2026 which is of course again very wide but implies that growth will continue for the Brand.

According to the just released annual report , my Quick and Dirty analysis looks as follows: