EMAK SpA – The paranoia edition

In the last days I analysed the strange behaviour of the EMAK shares since the subscription rights started to trade (Part 1, Part 2).

Just to remember: On Friday 18th, before the subscription period, the Stock traded at ~ 2,10 EUR. This equals 0,75 EUR after the split of the subscription rights.

Since then, the stock systematically trades down towards the exercise price of the subscription right (0,425 EUR).

Remark: A lot of the available charts do not correctly adjust for the subscription right. The correct historical chart can be found for instance at Borsa Italiana directly.

So what is happening here ? In my opinion one has always to ask: Do I miss something here ? Or to put it another way: Does someone have a strong incentive that the price will go below the subscription price by the end of the subscription period ?

If we go back one step, we should ask addtionally: What was the purpose of the whole exercise anyway?

When I read the announcement that the majority shareholder Yama SpA wants to sell his other holdings to EMAK, my first reaction was: they need cash. However after disclosing that they will take up their share of the capital increase, the cash effect for the shareholder was relatively small.

Another reason could be the following: Maybe Yama’s real intention is to scare away minority shareholders and take over the minority shares as cheap as possible ?

Lets consider the following:

For a squeeze out in Italy , they need according to this document 95% of the company.

Before the rights issue, Yama held 74% or 20.5 mn shares of a total 27.6 mn shares.

After the exercise of the subscription right, we will hav a total amountof 163.9 mn shares (5 new for 1 old minus Treasury shares).

In the past trading days since beginning of the subscription period, a total of 1.05 mn shares have been trades for around 600 Tsd EUR which resulted in a drop from around 0,75 EUR to 0.48 EUR (low intraday today)

So in theory (paranoia scenario), the following could happen:

– Yama is currently selling its own shares to depress the share price below the subscription price of 0.425 EUR (only 4.5 cents to go, they have plenty of material).
– most shareholders then will not exercise the subscription right. Normally the unexercised subscription rigths will be sold for almost nothing in an closing auction at the last day
– Yama buys all the subscription rights and exercises them

This would result in the following change in percentage ownership, assumed that Yama needs to sell another 1 mn shares, to reach this target:

Before:
Yama: 20.5 mn shares, 74%
Minorities 7.1 mn shares, 26%

After: (total 163.9 mn shares)

Minorities 7.1 + 2 mn = 9.1 mn shares or 5.5%
Yama: 20.5 – 2 mn + all new shares (~136 mn) = 154.8 mn shares or 94.5%

So if this works out, YAMA almost reaches the threshold for a squeeze out. If they tehn achieve to hold the shareprice down for a further few months, the might be able to purchase the remainder for a relatively small fee.

Summary: There could be a downside scenario where the majority shareholder has structured this whole exercise to be a clever way of squeezing out minorities at a depressed price level. I am not sure how possible this is, but it should definitely be considered in any investment decision.

9 comments

  • Nun, so hatte ich das jedenfalls verstanden:
    “Yama S.p.A., Emak S.p.A.’s majority shareholder, has irrevocably and unconditionally undertaken to subscribe for the entire portion of the Capital Increase that it is entitled to subscribe. As for the remaining portion of the Capital Increase, the right offering will be supported by an underwriting commitment promoted and managed by Mediobanca – Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A., which will act as Global Coordinator and Sole Bookrunner of the Capital Increase, on the basis of an underwriting agreement, which will be entered into within the day before the commencement of the period for subscription of the rights.

    Mediobanca – Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A. acted as project advisor in the context of the Capital Increase.”

    Quelle: http://www.emak.it/Sezione.jsp?idSezione=1192&idSezioneRif=621&titolo=Emak%20S.p.A.%20Capital%20Increase:%20the%20Board%20of%20Directors%20resolves%20the%20final%20terms%20and%20conditions%20for%20the%20rights%20offering%20to%20the%20shareholders

    Falls es etwas anderes heißt, dann möge das bitte mal jemand in deutschen Klartext übersetzen. Immerhin ist das hier Deutschland. 😉

  • wieso bekommen sie die bezugsrechte geschenkt?

    bisher war ich bei KE immer der Meinung, dass die Bezugsrechte am letzten Tag auf “Teufel komm raus” verkauft werden, für die Leute, die bei ihrer Bank nichts gemacht haben.

    um mal eure Verschwörunsgtheorie entgegenzutreten:

    wie wäre es wenn der Großaktionär Aktien verkaufen muss um seiner Verpflichtung Übernahme der neuen Aktien nachkommen zu können? vllt hat er ja keinen cash mehr 🙂

  • Das wäre natürlich möglich. Jedoch werden wohl nicht alle Bezugsrechts-Inhaber nicht ausüben, denn einige haben vielleicht schon ihre Annahme vor Ablauf der Frist erklärt, und das ist unwiderruflich, bevor der Aktienkurs so tief sank.
    Wie ist das eigentlich: Offenbar wurde vereinbart, daß Yama bzw. Mediobanca alle neuen Aktien aus den Bezugsrechten übernimmt, welche nicht ausgeübt wurden. Ist das denn so zulässig? Ist das keine Übervorteilung der anderen Aktionäre? Ich könnte schließlich sagen, daß ich auch gerne (wenn der Preis attraktiv wäre, was ja möglich wäre) diese Bezugsrechte “übernehmen” würde – sprich, sie gerne geschenkt bekommen würde?!

    Die Bezugsrechte sollten übrigens eigentlich stets MEHR wert sein als der theoretische Wert, wie bei einem Optionsschein, denn der nicht-negative Optionswert kommt ja noch hinzu.

  • bis wann werden denn die bezugsrechte gehandelt?

    wenn deine story aufgehen würden, dann wärens ja fast -20% bis zu den 42,5 Cent …

    • offiziell letzter Tag ist Nikolaus. Bei meiner Bank muss ich bis 5.12. meine Instruktionen aufgeben.

      • Ja, aber letzter Tag für die Ausübung ist offiziell der 13. Dezember, bei meiner Bank jedoch der 9. Dezember EST (Eastern Standard Time).
        Die nicht ausgebübten Bezugsrechte können also nicht mehr auf dem Markt verkauft werden, sondern sie werden also an den Großaktionär verschenkt. Das scheint nicht unüblich zu sein, ich meine, ähnliche Konstruktionen in Erinnerung zu haben. Allerdings hat das ein Geschmäckle, wie ich finde…

  • Well, interesting theory – an outcome like that would obviously not be very attractive for those invested. However, Yama really gets a problem should too many people start to buy shares at the current low prices. Question is if they are really so “abgebrüht” (extra-cool?!) to start a game like this. We will see latest at the exercise day.

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