It seems that someone is working hard to achieve the “Paranoia Scenario”for the EMAK capital increase.
Today, a whopping 877 thousand shares have been traded. The intraday chart looks really weird, I don’t remeber having seen anything close.
Tomorrow, December 6th is the last trading the for the rights. So it will be interesting to see if there will be even more selling pressure in the EMAK stock.
Wenn man nur ein Video anschauen möchte, dann das Interview mit Seth Klarman und Charlie Rose
Interessante “Distressed Debt” Analyse zu AMR
Wie immer lesenswert ein der Blick auf Griechenland bei GreekDefaultWatch
Für Fans von Wirtschaftsgeschichte ein Muss: Ein neues entsprechende Blog bei Bloomberg
Ein vielversprechendes neues Value Blog namens CS Investing mit vielen schönen Analysen und Videos
Another “New Entry” in the Magix Sixes Screen (P/B < 0.6, P/E 6%) is Esso S.A.F.
The company is described by Bloomberg as follows:
Esso S.A.F. refines, distributes and sells petroleum products such as gasoline, heating and other fuels, distillates and asphalt. The Company’s subsidiaries include Esso REP and Esso Raffinage.
Esso is a 82% subsidiary of Exxon Mobile, market cap is around 800 mn EUR (12.9 mn shares at 63.4 EUR)
Current “traditional” valuation metrics are:
P/E: 5.8
P/E 10: 5.3
In the month of November, the Portfolio underperformed by -2% with -3.4% against -1.2% of the Benchmark (50% Eurostoxx, 30% Dax, 20% MDAX).
However, year to date the performance shows still an outperformance of 4.6%.
This is the second “down month” where the portfolio underperformed. The main and simple reason was the incredible bounce on the last day of the month. On November 29th, the portfolio would have shown an outperformance of 2% against the BM for November, but many of the portfolio positions have realtively low beta to the market.
Performance 2011 on a monthly basis:
| Bench | Portfolio | Perf BM | Perf Portf. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start | 6394 | 100 | ||
| Jan | 6567 | 101.46 | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Feb | 6645 | 102.49 | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| Mrz | 6559 | 103.92 | -1.3% | 1.4% |
| Apr | 6833 | 105.07 | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Mai | 6645 | 101.23 | -2.8% | -3.7% |
| Jun | 5646 | 95.35 | -15.0% | -5.8% |
| Jul | 6486.69 | 99.03 | 14.9% | 3.9% |
| Aug | 5504.92 | 91.73 | -15.1% | -7.4% |
| Sep | 5154.68 | 92.75 | -6.4% | 1.1% |
| Okt | 5667.92 | 95.46 | 10.0% | 2.9% |
| Nov | 5600.83 | 92.19 | -1.2% | -3.4% |
| YTD | -12.4% | -7.8% |
Portfolio Transcactions
In the last view days, the following transactions have been made:
Einhell:
The remaining shares (1% of the portfolio) has been sold for an average price of 32.31 EUR at a loss of 20.52%.
EMAK:
Between November 24th and November 30th, 65,734 EMAK shares have been bought at 0.5493 EUR per share and 200.000 subscription rights at 0.2567 EUR per right. As the rights will be exercised into 5 EMAK shares each at 0.425 cents, this is implicitly a position of 1.065 mn EMAK shares at an average purchase price of around 0.495 EUR. This will result in an 5% position for the portfolio, the maximum position I am willing to invest for any single investment.
Finally, the current compostion of the portfolio:
| Name | Weight |
|---|---|
| Hornbach Baumarkt | 5.2% |
| Fortum OYJ | 5.4% |
| Magyar Telekom | 4.9% |
| AS Creation Tapeten | 3.1% |
| Westag & Getalit VZ | 4.1% |
| BUZZI UNICEM SPA-RSP | 5.2% |
| Autostrada Milano Torino | 5.1% |
| EVN | 3.5% |
| Walmart | 4.5% |
| WMF VZ | 3.8% |
| Tonnellerie Frere Paris | 3.3% |
| KSB | 2.5% |
| Vetropack | 2.9% |
| Total Produce | 5.0% |
| Frosta | 2.8% |
| OMV AG | 2.5% |
| Sto AG VZ | 2.5% |
| Nestle | 2.3% |
| Microsoft | 2.5% |
| Drägerwerk Genüsse D | 7.6% |
| IVG Wandler | 2.5% |
| WESTLB 6.9% | 5.5% |
| DEPFA LT2 2015 | 3.0% |
| AIRE | 4.8% |
| HT1 Funding | 4.0% |
| EMAK SPA | 0.4% |
| EMAK SPA-RTS | 0.5% |
| Short: Kabel Deutschland | -1.3% |
| Short: Green Mountain | -2.0% |
| Short: Dräger VZ | -6.5% |
| Terminverkauf CHF EUR | 0.4% |
| Tagesgeldkonto 2% | 10.3% |
| Summe | 100.0% |
| Value | 70.9% |
| Opportunity | 28.3% |
| Short | -9.4% |
| Tagesgeld | 10.3% |
Outlook:
Including the EMAK new shares, the portfolio will have a 95% net position. As my current target is max. 90%, I will have to sell 5% exposure in the coming days or find suitable short candidates.
value and opportunity 