Performance September 2012 & Comments
Again, September has been a surpisingly strong month against the Benchmark. The Benchmarl (50% Eurostoxx, 30% Dax and 20% MDAX) gained +1.3% resulting in a YTD perfromacne of 18.2%. The portfolio returned however +3.3% in September, resulting in a YTD performance of 28.7% or 10% better than the benchmark.
Full performance overview:
|Bench||Portfolio||Perf BM||Perf. Portf.||Portf-BM|
Top performers in September were Total Produce, SIAS, Buzzi and KAS Bank, although most of the positions were positive.
There were no big changes to the portfolio apart from the two new shorts (Prada, Focus Media) and the 1% Rhoen Position. Piquadro has been completely sold down. As discussed https://valueandopportunity.com/2012/06/18/cranswick-plc-isin-gb0002318888-business-model-and-valuation/#comment-3106, Cranswick has been “upgraded” to a full position.
Portfolio as of Sep. 30th 2012:
|Name||Weight||Perf. Incl. Div|
|AS Creation Tapeten||3.9%||9.5%|
|BUZZI UNICEM SPA-RSP||4.9%||-2.4%|
|Tonnellerie Frere Paris||5.1%||27.0%|
|KAS Bank NV||5.2%||12.6%|
|Drägerwerk Genüsse D||9.7%||94.0%|
|DEPFA LT2 2015||2.9%||39.2%|
|Short: Kabel Deutschland||-2.2%||-52.2%|
|Short: Focus Media Group||-1.0%||2.4%|
|Short Ishares FTSE MIB||-2.3%||-3.0%|
|Terminverkauf CHF EUR||0.2%||5.1%|
The portfolio now has a certain “tilt” towards the Euro crisis. Although the direct percentage of PIIGS is only around 18%, a couple of the other positions (HT1, IVG, April) do show correlation with the developement in the Eurozone.
I do not have a problem with this as I think all those stocks are cheap based on “bottom of the cycle” valuations. As indicated in my “boss Score” posts, I will prioritize to a certain extent French stocks going forward, as I find them exceptionally cheap as well.
Regarding the macro picture, I have nothing new to add. BRIC’s look relatively weak if you look through the hype and the US is not doing that well either. So I find no reason to go “hunting” for value outside Europe for the time being.
Cash is with 13.9% still comfortably high, I could add one position and still maintain my minimum threshold of 10%.
All in all I try to prepare myself for some months of underperformance as the current status seems to be “too good to be true”. Past experience however shows that such “hated rallys” have really long legs and it usually doesn’t pay to time the market.