Boss Score: Top 25 Scandinavia

Next in my “top 25” series from the “Boss” database is now Scandinavia or the “Nordic” countries, namely Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

Again, as the process is only semi-automated, I have currently “only” about 300 Nordic companies in my database.

Let’s start with the Top 25 according to the 10 Year score:

Followed by the ranking for the 5 Year score

Finally I want to introduce something a am also looking at: A “pure” quality score without actually looking at the current market price. As some readers might recall, the Boss model first calculates a theoretical fair multiple to book value and then divides this by the market price.

If we leave out the last step, we can sort by the achieved multiple. Based on empirical experience, I use a blend of the 5y and 10y value with a double weight for the 5 year score.

After sorting the list by this criteria, we get the best “quality” companies:

Again there seem to be some interesting companies in the Nordic countries. Let’s have a quick at some of the names which I find interesting at a first glance:

B&B Tools (Sweden)

They seem to have a quite interesting business model, a servicer and supplier (without own production) of tools and consumables to industrial companies. However they seem to have some problems at the moment. Strongly declining profits, new CEO etc.

Capman OY

Finish private equity vehicle. Maybe worth a look at some point in time.

Takoma OY

Finish engineering group. However Stock chart looks like free fall. According to one of their publications, they are currently in breach of loan covenants. So a “no go” here.

KABE

Very interesting. One of the leading caravan manufacturers. Also “high quality” in my model. Maybe

Fenix Outdoor

Both, designer of outdoor products as well as operating a retail chain. Relatively expensive but high profitability.

NIBE

Producer of heat pumps, boiler, freestanding fireplaces. Expensive but high quality.

Rapala

Finish specialist for fishing tackle. Main competitor for Shimano in this area.

Gronlandsbanken

This might be an interesting special banking stock. It seems to be the ONLY commercial bank in Greenland according to Wikipedia. The balance sheet is super solid and if the Greenland natural resources story would really play out, this would be the stock to have. So a “hidden” commodity play so to say.

Summary:All in all my feeling is that the Nordic capital markets are much more efficient than for instance France. Thos companies which score well do mostly have some issues or their overall scores are not very high compared to other countries. “Quality” companies seem to be priced accordingly.

6 comments

  • hi robert,

    at the moment I feel i can’t add a lot of value in analyzing an oil stock. Maybe at some future point in time….

    MMI

  • I would be interested in a Statoil analysis, too. Better an analysis covering the oil business in general.

  • Hallo MMI,

    Darf ich mal fragen, wie die Fa. Bilia AB in Deinem scoring abschneidet.
    Das Geschäftsmodell ist verständlich, aber im Moment sehr unter Druck.
    Es gab Insiderkäufe im September für rund 0,7 Mio € (AR), eventuell hidden asset (onlineversteigerung von KFZ).

    Gruss

    • Musti,

      klar. Bilia schneidet nicht besonders gut ab, mein Modellwert liegt bei 50% das aktuellen Werts . EK Rendite über den GEsamtzeitraum wäre gerade noch Ok mit 9-11%, aber die Vola ist sehr hoch.
      Die aktuellen 25% EK Rendite dürften wohl nicht “sustainable” sein.

      MMI

  • I was disappointed that Statoil and Yara International didn’t score.

    • Stefan,

      Statoil scores actually quite well if you look into the lists (Rank 10 or so in each list). However at the moment I do not really have a view on Oil companies so for me it is not that interesting or I need to do some more serious research into them.

      Yara was actually not yet in the database. However the would be Top 10 in the 5 year score with ~150% . They do not have a 10 year history yet but they would also score relatively good quality wise.

      MMI

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