Again this turned out to be a quite long post as I am digging a little bit deeper into the balance sheet. Therefore a quick summary:
Although FBD Holdings, the Irish P&C company looks interesting, I will not invest. The company has a very impressive track record, but in my opinion the business model is not scalable as it doesn’t have any structural competitive advantages besides a loyal client base. Additionally, the company severely screwed up their asset allocation and will be faced with ultra low investment returns going forward unless they are increasing their investment risk significantly.
At current stock prices, the company is in my opinion pretty well priced, with only a relatively small upside in a good case and equally large downside in a more negative case.
A great (long) article on Shell, drilling in the Arctic, proven oil reserves and some more.
The WertArt blog likes Italien closed end real estate funds
A few nice graphs on oil demand.Hint:It is lower than expected.
An interesting essay about the “out-of-control” art market
On the advantages of bottom up stock picking against top down market timing
Eddie Lampert (Sears) explains the trial and error nature of retail.
Nate from Oddball with a great post on he advantages of a consistent (and boring) style of investment
A few days ago, I published my 28 stocks for 2015. Pretty soon after that, I already sold Sberbank.
Now I sold another stock, Energiedienst, the German/Swiss Hydro Power generator which I bought only last year.
The investment case for Energiedienst was pretty simple: Energiedienst as a hydro power generator is an “electricity price pure play” with a solid balance sheet. My expectation was that Energiedienst could profit in the mid-term if the conventional utility companies take capacity off the market, as running gas and coal powered power plants were loss making for E.On and RWE.
In 2014, the portfolio perfomed 5,42% vs. 2,37% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%),MDAX (20%)). This is the 4th year in a row with an outperformance but such a small difference is rather arbitrary, so nothing to get excited.
If I would need to promote my results for 2014, I would argue that the result has been achieved with significant less volatility than the Benchmark. A quick look at the monthly returns: