First a big “thank you” to the reader who sent me an EMail and pointing me to this book.
Everyone who works in a big company knows the feeling: You had a really stressful day with many meetings etc. but by the end of the day you go home and are frustrated because you got nothing done. Or you have those colleagues who are always busy but if you need something from them, you never get an answer. Or you have been watching the Bloomberg screen on a really bad day all day long and achieved exactly nothing.
In Q3 2016, the portfolio gained by +7,5% vs. +7,7% for the benchmark (25% Eurostoxx 50, 25% Eurostoxx small 200, 30% Dax, 20% MDAX).
YTD the score is +5,9% vs. -2,5%, since inception (01.01.2011) +121,8% vs.63,5%. As always Quarter & YTD numbers are very volatile and can easily fluctuate +/- 5% on relative basis in very short time.
The detailed month-by-month table, graph and links to all the reviews can be found on the performance page.
My subjective “Peer Group” has done like this YTD:
Partners Fund TGV: +6,9%
Squad European Convictions +9,3%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos +13,3%
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen +3,5%
The best performing shares in the portfolio in Q3 were:
First things first: Deutsche Bank
I had a post in February last year why investing in something like Deutsche bank is maybe not a good idea. But still, as I said in February this year, I don’t think Deutsche Bank will be the next Lehman Brothers.
However the internal Memo from John Cryan is clearly not a good sign. Not the text of the memo, but the fact that he had to send out one (again). Similar to Dick Fuld back then, Cryan blames “speculators” for the stock price drop. Interestingly he didn’t say “short sellers”. Maybe this has to do with the fact that Deutsche Bank itself has around 106 different disclosed short positions on stocks according to the Bloomberg function SPOS.
The big difference to Lehman in my opinion is liquidity.and the general market environment. As a universal bank they have much better access to (guaranteed) deposits and overall the market still looks relatively stable.
So one could ask: After losing -50%, is Deutsche Bank now a good (Value) investment ? I honestly don’t know. For me, a value investment is an investment I can actually value with a “Margin of safety”.