Some links

UK “guru” Neil Woodford tries to explain his currently bad performance (incl. Provident)

Some interesting thoughts on mining stocks

Ad agencies vs. platform companies 

“Big Money thinks small” looks like a really interesting investment book

Nacco Industries looks like a potentially very interesting spin-off candidate

Some interesting thoughts from Horizon Kinetics (FRMO, Murray Stahl) on “investing” in Cryptocurrency (and other stuff)

3 comments

  • Did you see in the Murray Stahl piece that he was investing in BSX and MGEX. DO you know if these are private investments.

  • Talking of Woodford, and given that you like special situations, what do you think of Sphere Medical? (SPHR on AIM)

    It is a very special but I find very interesting situation: it’s a distressed medical device developer being de-listed next week, because Woodford couldn’t refinance it beyond his previous position as a public company for regulatory reasons, which sunk the price to a very tiny implied probability (however you calculate it) of success for the product. That makes it a unique bargain on a risk-adjusted basis for any estimate of the probability of success above tiny. The product is not even blue sky, but in launch phase.

    Despite being delisted soon, the exit seems pretty straightforward: either it will be a total write-off if it fails, or it will be re-listed or you get a trade sale for cash when it lifts off. You have to trust Woodford as the majority holder not to do a Chinese-AIM-stock style trick, but he has no reason to ruin his reputation for a few basis point of extra performance at fund level. On the positive side, it’s a free-ride on Woodford’s activist shareholder role without paying management fees.

    Drawbacks: it’s only for small (it’s unlikely to be available to buy in five figure sizes) and patient (holding shares in a private company for a few) people at this stage. End of play on Tuesday.

    (I obviously own it.)

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