Another Osram update
As mentioned in the comments yesterday evening, I sold my Osram shares at 35,40 EUR yesterday. Why did I do this ? The “new” spread at around 8% is even more attractive than the original spread when I bought it.
The reason is quite simple: in my opinion we have now a very different different situation with the following new issues:
- I do not know these AMS guys at all
- they had already pulled their offer once
- the AMS offer is clearly more hostile, Osram management might oppose it as they might not get the same deal that the PEs offered them. I am not an expert on “standstill agreements” but this seems to be the first hurdle
- the AMS offer will take a lot longer to close even if successful (antitrust etc.)
- However for me the tipping point was the fact that AMS shareholders clearly didn’t like the deal with their stock losing almost -10% yesterday
Especially the last point indicates that the 38,50 EUR per share might not be the super bargain that some existing Osram investors think that their stock represents, otherwise AMS investors should have been more enthusiastic.
Yes, there is clearly a small chance that the PEs will increase their bid but overall this new situation is too hard to handicap for me at the moment.
Additionally I think that the risk of a “non-deal” scenario even increased. If the AMS deal would fall away again, I don’t think that the PEs woul reach the 70% now with the 35 EUR offer and I am not sure if they would increase their bid in this scenario.
That’s why sold, took a higher profit than I initially expected and moved to the sideline.
Maybe there is another opportunity in the next few weeks. Who knows ?