Monthly Archives: November 2024

Some links 18/2024

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Alluvial Capital with an interesting Colombian “sum of the parts plus catalyst” Cement company

A great deep dive into the much improved technology of Desalination from Tomas Pueyo

Some good lessons from watching and commenting on markets for 37 years

A very nice article explaining the three main contributors to the current success of LLM Gen AI models

It’s always worth listening whenever Prof Damodaran is on a podcast. His (critial) post on “Sustainability is equally worth reading.

Great write-up on French research company Ipsos

Part 1 of a very promising deep dive into the issue that Private Market IRRs do not equal investment perfomance

Panic Journal revival: Trump edition & We have seen this movie before

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Last week has not only brought a clear win for Donald Trump but in parallel also the (final) downfall of the German “Traffic Light” coalition.

US Markets celebrated the clear outcome, further increasing the outperformance of anything US based. Everyone now tries to figure out what a Trump administration will actually do, but the “market” seems to agree that it will be “pro business” and therefore great for US stocks (and Crypto and of course Elon).

Lower corporate taxes, more oil & gas drilling and tariffs on every import with a focus on China seem to be something the US stock market really likes.

One way to play this as an investor would be to join the various “Trump/Musk/Thiel Trades” like Bitcoin, US Bank, Palantir Tesla or the likes or just switch (even more) into ever winning US stocks. My inner contrarian however is screaming “red alert” as in my opinion a lot of this or even too much is already baked into US asset prices in general. But maybe it’s just my envy that US assets are performing so much better than what I own ? Who knows.

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Some links 17/2024

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Must read (for Oak barrel afficionados): Wintergem’s deep dive into TFF and the oak barrel market

Local Indian Whisky seems to become a thing in India

A very deep dive into HAL Trust in the latest East 72 Dynasty Trust investor letter

Air Street Capital’s “State of AI 2024 report” has been released

Some interesting charts why the current “American stocks are the only game in town” period might soon be over

John Hempton with a rare long pitch on Brambles, the Aussie Pallet maker

A deeper look into the problems brewing under the surface in the Private Equity industry