Quick updates: EVS Broadcast, Sixt and Amadeus Fire
EVS Broadcast
EVS Broadcast reported 2024 numbers this week. After raising their 2024 guidance 2 times during the year, they came out at the upper und of the projected range. The Highlight page speaks for itself:
I think the major positive surprise was the relatively bullish outlook. On the mid point, they expect ~+2% to +3% sales growth in 2025. That doesn’t sound like much, but as 2025 is an “uneven” year without large sporting events like the Olympics or a football Worldcup, the analysts had expected a significant lower number. According to EVS, around 8% of 2024 sales were driven by this events, so the assumed “underlying” organic growth rate is ~10%. This outlook is supported by a boo-to-bill ratio of clearly above 1. In the past, EVS always guided conservatively, so there might be still more room for surprises.-
The growth in the business in 2024 mainly cames from the US where they seem to be successful in winning new clients.
With regards to US tariffs they don’t seem too concerned as most of their competitors are from outside the US:
With Net Cash of around 5,55 EUR per share, a trailing EPS of 3,02 EUR, the shares are in my opinion still ridicuously cheap compared to the quality of the company.
Sixt AG
Sixt released 2024 numbers yesterday. At first sight, the decrease in EPS from 7,14 EUR to 5,20 EUR per share looks unpleasent. However, declining residiual car values especially in the US were the major dirver of this. Sixt gave a pretty optimistiv outlook for 2025. With an expected Top-line growth of 7,5% in the midpoint and an expected EBT margin of 10% in 2025, this would translate into EPS of around 6,70 EUR and a P/E of 9x for the Pref shares.
One interesting question is clearly, how tariffs would influence both, rentals and used car prices in the US. I think the influence of used cars would be clearly positive as new cars would get (much) more expensive. The effect on rentals as such is not so clear and depends a little bit on the overall economic situation in the US.
Amadeus Fire
There was no news on Amadeus Fire this week, but I wanted to mention that I sold my remaining position to create liquidity for new ideas. My investment case for Amadeus was unfortunately far away from reality and my conviction on the stock has suffered. I will continue to watch it, but for the time I see more convincing opportunities elsewhere.
value and opportunity 
Amadeus is dropping like a stone
yes, no recovery in 2025 either.
EVS Tax regime: [ https://www.innovatieaftrek.be/en#what-is-the-innovation-income-deduction | https://www.innovatieaftrek.be/en#what-is-the-innovation-income-deduction ] If all your profits stems from innovation, the Belgian corporate tax rate goes down from 25% tot 3.75%. EVS is very R&D intensive -> big tax rate deduction. [ https://www.innovatieaftrek.be/en#what-is-the-innovation-income-deduction ]
Thx.
EVS: The Investor Day Presentation from November is quite interesting. In particular slide 39, where they present market shares for themselves + competitors in a few market segments. And certainly slide 47, where they state they expect to grow their “MediaCeption” (News/Entertainment etc.) market share 10% -> 15%, by ” Capturing market share from underperforming peers”. They even name those “underperforming peers”: GrassValley, Avid, Dalet. Quite strong language, given they tend to be rather “conservative” when giving guidance etc.
I tthink for EVS one must consider, that they currently do (almost) not oay taxes. This could change in the future, right?
So, although this seems to be a good Company selling for a bargain price, the Company may not be ss cheap as it looks at first sight.
Maybe I am biased here, but for me a fair multiple would be so much higher than the current so that a slightly higher or lower tax rate makes not a big difference.
And if Trump really lower the Corporate Tax in the uS, the future tax rate might not be much higher than it is now as the US will become more and more important for them.
Don’t get me wrong, I also bought EVS after reading your Analysis some time ago. Thank you very much for your valuable input.
I also think the Company is undervalued, by how much we will see…
Nevertheless I think it is relevant to consider, that they only paid less than 5% taxes in 2024, so the current P/E of 12 would go up to about 14-15, of they had to pay a ‘normal’ tax rate.
Still not high I agree.
My understanding is that the low tax rate is a structural feature as they get tax credits in Belgium for the R&D they do in Belgium. I do not hink that this will disappear over night.
I would also argue that the net cash of ~5,50 EUR per share should be adjusted, as it is not required for operations.
As mentioned, the P/E ex cash for me is 10x based on 2024. a fair P/E would be more at 20x.
Yes, I agree.
For me it is currently hard to assess, how strong competition is and how big the moat of EVS is.
In case they have a strong moat, probably even more than 20 is warranted.
Thanks for the updates
Ich wollte mich nur mal kurz bedanken für den ganzen Content! Immer sehr interessante Werte, super Analysen und lustig geschrieben.Schönes WochenendeHolger