Some links 17/2025
Ben Thompson (Stratechery) thinks that “community” is to only answer for content creators in the age of AI
Rubicon Stockpicker 6M report with some interesting new positions (Novem, Stratec, Hgears update)
Verdad Capital on increasing buybacks and dividends in Japan
An interesting pitch on an GLP-1 “stock basket” (Novo etc.)
Plus a pretty decent analysis if GLP-1 is indeed a wonder drug or not
Even more than 100 years ago, price momentum seems to have been a relevant factor in stock investing
A recent paper on low volatility stock alpha
value and opportunity 
As far as I can see, the GLP-1 articles omit two important developments.
First of all, we probably will have soon oral GLP-1 agonists. From what I can see, Novo Nordisk has completely sidelined this area of research but Eli Lilly has a compound called orforglipron in phase III (with at least one successfully completed phase III study, see doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2505669). While the weight loss achieved with orforglipron is lower than that achievable with injectable GLP-1 agonists, in my opinion this is outweighted by the convenience of just taking a pill once a day rather than having to inject yourself once a week (YMMV, of course). It is also expected that treatment with orforglipron will be less expensive than with the injectable GLP-1 agonists, simply because the molecule is much smaller (it is not a peptide, so the chemistry to synthesize it is very different). Interestingly, other companies have tried to develop oral GLP-1 agonists, but danuglipron and lotiglipron (both Pfizer) failed because of liver toxicity. (According to the various studies published by Eli Lilly on orforglipron, it is not toxic to the liver.)
Second, the most potent drug so far, tirzepatide (Mounjaro, sold by Eli Lilly), is not just a GLP-1 agonist but a dual agonist stimulating both the GLP-1 and the related GIP receptor. This is probably the reason why tirzepatide leads to stronger weight loss than semaglutide (Novo Nordisk). It appears that a triple agonist that stimulates the glucagon receptor in addition to the GLP-1 and GIP receptors, retatrutide, which is also under development by Eli Lilly, is even more potent than tirzepatide.
Finally, the article by Derek Thompson suggests that GLP-1 agonists have no side effects. This is also not true. While the Nature Medicine paper referenced in his article (doi:10.1038/s41591-024-03412-w) clearly spells out the many benefits noted in this cohort study (i.e. reduced risk of substance abuse, psychotic disorders, seizures, Alzheimer’s disease, coagulation disorders, cardiometabolic disorders and some others that may be indirect effects), it also says that the risk for gastrointestinal disorders, arthritic disorders, kidney stones, nephritis and pancreatitis is increased.
Thank you for that very deailed comment. Knwoing your background, I’ll trust you rather than Mr. Thompsom 😉