value and opportunity

The hype around LK-99 was short lived. Nevertheless, the history of Superconductors is really fascinating and I think there is reason for optimism.

Some interesting thoughts on why “Generative AI” could go the same way as LK-99

Interesting long read on the concept of “Late Bloomers”, which are people that find their true calling later in life.

ANother interesting long read on everything you need to know about subsea internet communication cables

“White Hydrogen”, i.e. Hydrogen naturally trapped underground, might become a thing

Seth Klarmann has been leading the effort to update Graham& Dodd’s “Security Analysis”

Hunter Walk predicts “more pain to come” for the valuation of VC portfolios, despite the public market rebound

Half Year 2023 update from the Augustusville blog/portfolio

Maran Capital 6M report (CTT, Vistry)

Prof Damodaran covers a lot of aspects of Country risk in this post

Boyar writeup on TopGolf/Callaway

Some good news from Geothermal Energy

Rob Vinall’s Postcard from China is worth reading

Private Equity bets on Asset Manager consolidation

It’s 6M report time. Some good ones here:
– TGV Partners (Tucows, Naked Wine)
– TGV Falkenstein (Energiekontor)
– TGV Rubicon (United Internet, Ceconomy, Invision)
– Alluval Capital (Logisteq)
– East72 Dynasty Trust (Bolloré)
– TGV Compound Interest (BionTech, Siltronic, Paypal)

When Seth Klarmann is on a podcast (every 10 years or so) it is worth listening to.

A great look back to the Countrywide/Angelo Mozillo story from Marc Rubinstein

There seems to be plenty of potential for much better heatpumps

Great post on why building a durable goods company these days is quite hard

Many people want to be rich and famous. Morgan Housel is not so sure about the famous part.

Barry Ritholz with good advice on how to get rich in financial markets, sorted by diffculty and likelyhood.

The usual ecclectic list of stock write-ups from Capital Employed

If you are a CFO and you want to raise money through a share placement, you better pay attention to the weather

A fantastic “Tour de Force” ride from Prof Damodaran across Chip companies and AI

The seven page memo, that resulted in a 105 mn seed funding round for Mistral.ai (without a product)

6M Portolio Update from the Augustusville blog

A short write-up on Fox Factory, a suspension specialist from Royce

R.i.P. Harry Markovitz, the “Father of Portfolio theory”.

Great stock write up collection from Capital Employed

A new study seems to show that correctly identified sin stocks (Alcohol, Tobacco, Gambling) have positive alpha

Swen Lorenz shares some experiences from an investor trip to Turkey

An interesting deep dive into LSE after the Refinitiv take over from Marathoner

A good intro into the economics of “Big Gaming”

How will “Uncle Carl” Icahn’s endgame look like for IEP after the Hindenburg “attack” ?

Despite the “advice” of many financial pundits, writing covered calls is destroying value in the mid- and longterm

First Citizen Bank from North Carolina emerges as buyer of (most of) SVB with kind support from the FDIC. According to the FT, First Citizen has experience with buying troubled banks.

The always excellent Morgan Housel on how mass panics develop and how to insulate oneself (if possible at all)

Carsten Mueller from Augustusville has posted an interesting Portfolio review

John Hempton has a pretty clear opinion on who ist to blame for the loss on Credit Suisse AT1 bonds

Hindenburg came out with a blazing attack on Jack Dorsey’s Block (ex Square)

Swen Lorenz thinks that Dinosaur Bones could be the next exciting “alternative asset” class

An interesting interview with Sam Altman, the Mastermind behind ChatGPT

The “3D Printing Winter” seems to be over and the technology is becaoming quite common in many areas

Ben Thompson (Stratechery) with a good summary on Sillicon Valley Bank (This is so last week)

A very thoughtful post on US Deposit Insurance from Rational Walk

Interesting Deep Dive on AMD from the Punch Card Investor

The excellent Wintergems Substack with a first post about Canadian company Richelieu Hardware

A good summary of the improvements of GPT4 which was released last week

Prime, a UK based, Influencer pushed Energy drink is taking Social Media marketing to the extreme

Highly recommended: Podcast on Earnings Quality with Columbia Professor Doron Nissim

Some more 2022 reports:

– 2022 Report from TGV Intrisic Value (FEMSA, Hostelworld)

– 2022 Report from TGV Compound Interest (Intred, About You, StoneCo etc.

– 2022 report from Third Point (AIG, Bath and Body Works, Colgate-Palmolive

– some Seth Klarman report comments via the FT

Some signs that “Value stocks” might see a mighty comeback after years of under peformance

Ben Thompson (Stratechery) on his slightly disturbing conversation with “Sidney” aka BingChatGPT

Spotify’s bet on Podcasts doesn’t look so successful right now

Some deep thought on why long term learning in capital markets is difficult for many investors (lifehack: Write a journal)

Great 2022 portfolio review of the very eccletic Emerging Value blog

Despite the lacklustre performance, Terry Smith’s Fundsmith annual letters are still a great read. 2022 is no exception

Describing 2022 as a very good year for David Einhorn would be a massive understatement

Interesting deep dive into a Canadian Port logistics company called Logistec

2022 letter from TGV Partners (Ferguson, Mutui, Tucows; Naked Wines)

Seawolf Capital, run by a “Big short” veteran, was up +169% last year

Some interesting insights how a decrease in population interacts with the economy

Tyler Cowen on who might win and how might lose from the advance of AI

A short history of the Video Game industry and the Activision/Microsoft case from Stratechery

The new Howard Marks memo “Sea change”

Mauboussin on Capital Allocation

Whenever Joel Greenblatt is speaking, one should listen (and watch)

Nature magazine with a good summary on the recent Nuclear Fusion “breakthrough”

Marc Rubinstein on retail banking and Vernon Hill (Commerce Bank, Metro bank)