Tag Archives: Autostrada

SIAS SpA stock tanking – what to do ?

At the moment, my portfolio position SIAS is tanking like crazy. Interstingly much more than Autostrada:

The reason seems to be quite obvious: People are worried that Gavio will use SIAS to fund further Impregilo Purchases.

Interestingly, there seems to be now an activist Investor on board who has voiced this concern publicly, Italian version here.

He is basically demanding that Gavio publicly announces not to use SIAS (and the cash proceeds from the South America sale) to fund further Impregilo purchases.

The current share price however speaks a different language. So what to do now ? In the case of Autostrada, it had paid to sell first and ask questions later.

In this case howver, I am currently inclined to wait as nothing has happened yet. The publicity of the activist investor will make it more difficult for Gavio to use the funds in a bad way for minority shareholders.

Lutetia Capital itself seems to be a contrarian event driven fundSuch an announcement of course would be highly beneficial for the stock. The boss of Lutetia is a Lazard veteran which is intersting as Lazard is a 5% shareholder of SIAS.

So at the moment I will watch and do nothing, howver I am tempted to “ride the coat tail” of the activist investor at some point in time and increase the exposure if they seem to be succesfull.

Edit: As AS said in the comments, price targets were adjusted downwards, but I usually try to ignore those “trend following” activities.

Edit: I jsut saw that already 3.8 mn stocks were traded whcih is 10 times the normal volume. Maybe this is some kind of sell out. So I will add 1% Portfolio Weight as of today to the SIAS position.

Autostrada, Total Produce, Piquadro

Autostrada

As mentioned yesterday, I sold my full Autostrada position at yesterday’s VWAP of 6.34 EUR per share, resulting in a loss of -7,88%. I will revisit Autostrada and especially SIAS, the operating subisidiary, once the cpaital increase is underway. Looking at EMAK and Unicredit, this could provide a more interesting entry point and compensating for the risk of unexpected transactions…..

Piquadro

Since yesterday, Piquadro trades below 1,50 EUR, which was my threshold for additional purchases. However, as I am currently much more pesimistic about China I will for the time being not purchase more Piquadro shares.

Total Produce

Total Produce issed preliminary annual fugures (thanks for the link to best_choice). Wexboy and Philipp O’Sullivan already commented on the results.

Positives were the turnaround in the Health foods segment, whereas the rest of the business slightly contracted. The “EHEC scare” was most likely contributing significantly to this decline.

What I don’t really like are the debt financed acquisitions. However the guidance for 2012 (7-8 cents a share) still leaves the company in the “dirt cheap” category.

Autostrada – the real Italian job !! (Holy Cow edition)

Holy Cow !! (pardon my French..).

After I posted last week about a potential “Italian Job” at Autostarda / SIAS with the sale of the South American activities, the real Italian job now emerged:

Autostrada just released a “breaking news item” that they intend to:

– buy in total 30% of the Italian construction company Impegrilo from it’s parent and Insurance company Fondiaria at a total amount of 237 mn EUR
– The purchase price is above the current market price of Impegrilo shares
– additionally, they want to increase their capital by up to 500 mn EUR which based on the current market cap of 620 mn EUR is a lot.

I have to admit that this is really unexpected and hard to value. In any case, it completely changes the investment case and I am inclined to directly sell the shares or exchange them into SIAS.

One thing is a little bit strange: They say that they pay above market price (3.65 EUR for the Fondriaria part and 3 EUR from the parent company) and spend 237 mn EUR in total. However, those 120 mn shares are actually worth something like 312 mn EUR at the current price of 2.66 EUR for Impgegilo.

Edit:

I have just seen that Fondiaria actually issued a press release in December 2011 about the first part of the transaction:

Argo Finanziaria S.p.A., Immobiliare Fondiaria-SAI S.r.l. and Immobiliare Milano Assicurazioni S.r.l. announce the signing today of the acquisition by Argo Finanziaria S.p.A. of 8,040,000 ordinary shares of IGLI S.p.A., held by Immobiliare Fondiaria-SAI S.r.l. and Immobiliare Milano Assicurazioni S.r.l. and comprising 33.33% of the share capital of IGLI S.p.A.. As previously reported, IGLI S.p.A. in turn holds 120,576,293 Impregilo S.p.A. ordinary shares – 29.96% of the share capital with voting rights. The acquisition price of each IGLI S.p.A. share subject to the agreement was established at Euro
10.89572, based on the forecast balance sheet of IGLI S.p.A. at December 31, 2011, with each ordinary share of Impregilo S.p.A. attributed a value of Euro 3.65.
Argo Finanziaria S.p.A. may designate its subsidiary Autostrada Torino Milano S.p.A. to acquire the IGLI S.p.A. shares held by Immobiliare Fondiaria-SAI S.r.l. and Immobiliare Milano Assicurazioni S.r.l. .

So this was not exectly “brand new” news, but this potential “designation” was never mentioned anywhere on Autostrada’s website.

So let’s wait and see what the stock does tomorrow. Maybe I was the only one who did not know about this…..

Quick update: After a short suspension, the stock now trades down “after hour” at around 6,90 EUR from 7,10 earlier on the day. So I will try to sell them tomorrow with a limit of 6,75 EUR per share.

EDIT: I decided to skip the limit and sell at today’s VWAP without limit. Sell first, ask questions later….