Tag Archives: tariffs

Panic Journal – Trump II: “There will be blood”

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Quick Summary:

This post contains additional random musings about the current situation, plus an updated “portfolio check” at the end. So feel free to jump to the end if you are only interested in the portfolio check.

Background:

At the end of 2024, I wrote a first post about what might happen following both a Donald Trump win in the US election and a breakup of the German coalition. My takeaway was that maybe US stocks weren’t the great deal they were supposed to be.

Since then, two major developments have changed:

  1. The promised 7–10% US growth has turned into an almost certain recession.
  2. The outcome of the German election has been slightly better than initially feared.

All of this has led to a significant outperformance of European large-cap stocks, especially in Q1.

Trump / US

I have absolutely no idea where this is all headed. But one thing is certain: uncertainty. Especially regarding the future direction of the US government, uncertainty has increased significantly.

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Performance review Q1 2025 – Comment: “Negotiation tactics & Achilles Heel”

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In the first 3 months of 2025, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +0,9% (including dividends, no taxes) against a gain of +7,2% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog.

Performance review:

After 2023 and 2024, 2025 once again looks like a year where it will be hard to compete with my benchmark. This is how the individual parts of the benchmark performed in Q1:

Eurostoxx 50: +7,6%
DAX: +11,2%
Eurostoxx small: +3,1%
MDAX: +7,1%

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