Quick News: Total Produce & Piquadro SpA

Total Produce

Irish Stock broker Davy issued a short research notice with regard to the UK fruit market. It seems that there are some bright spots there and Total Produce might benefit:

Total Produce (TOT ID)
Price: 38c
Rating: Outperform
Issued: 14/05/10
Previous: Neutral
Issued: 30/06/09
UK soft fruit market grows impressively
Aiden O’ Donnell
FACTS: In 2011, the UK soft fruit category grew by 15% in value terms according to the latest Kantar Worldpanel data.
ANALYSIS: The soft fruit segment is valued at £786m following a year in which it grew by 15% in value terms and by 12% in volume. Much of the category growth has been driven by increased frequency of purchase and also by a longer soft fruit season. The core consumers still tend to be children and over-65s but there is some evidence that teenagers and young adults are consuming more soft fruits. Sales of blueberries and raspberries are believed to be outperforming the overall category.
DAVY VIEW: Total Produce has a significant scale in the UK market through its Total Worldfresh divison. Within Total Worldfresh, there is a Total Berry sub-division which is described as one of the UK’s foremost authorities on soft and summer fruits and hence it should be benefitting from the market growth.


Piquadro came out with Q3 figures yesterday. As somehow expected, growth seems to be slowing especially in Italy.

Against last year, EBITDA declined by 10% more or less in line with a decline of 9% in Net income, however they stress that 2010 contained a one time positive effect.

Wholesale sales stagnated, however the own stores expanded nicely. Sames store sales growth seems to have been somewhwere between 6-8% depending on the calculation method. The own stores now accoutn already for 29% of total sales.

With a current EBITDA Margin of 22.8% we are still above the base case valuation which I have outlined here.

Unfortunately, the share price did not drop below 1.50 EUR, so I still wait before increasing the position.


  • EBITDA declined by 10 percent in the first nine months of the financial year, not in Q3.
    EBITDA margin during the quarter was 20 percent.

    Q3 Ums. 16,07 Mio. € (16,86 a year ago) -4,7%
    Q3 EBITDA 3,24 Mio. (4,61 a year ago) -30%
    Q3 EBIT 2,7 Mio. (4,11 a year ago) -34%
    Q3 Net Profit 1,99 Mio. € (2,61 a year ago) -24%

    FY 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
    DSO 122 138 131 140 128
    DSI 390 333 291 381 302
    DSO for the last quarter: 164

    If my calculations are correct …

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