Boss Score – Top 25 Spain, Portugal & Ireland

Next in my series about the “Boss Score model” results are Spain, Portugal and Ireland. I decided to leave out Italy for the moment as Italy is worth a separate table.

Top 25 10 Year Boss Score

Top 25 5 Year Boss Score

Top 25 “Quality”

Comments:

Irish companies
Interestingly, almost no Irish company shows up with a good Boss Score (Total Produce doesn’t have a long enough history yet). On the other hand, my model identifies quite a couple of Irish companies as “good quality”. However, it looks like that the good quality Irish companies are too expensive at least according to my model.

Terminal decliners

Some of the companies seem to be rather terminal decliners than “reversion to the mean” opportunity. Gamesa, Banco Popular, Montebalito, FCC etc. might or might not survive the crisis.

To be honest, I am not really enthusiastic on any of the Iberian stocks. Most of them have quite a lot of debt (Pescanova, utilities) or some cash flow issues (Prim, Indra). Ibersol might be the most interesting Iberian stock in the list, although they will need quite some time to recover.

5 comments

  • I would be interested in a quick analysis / your opinion on Semapa. Bestinver (Paco Parames) has been a long term investor, at least since 2007 when they bought at around € 13,55. Since then they have increased their share significantly. They should at least be knowledgable about the management of an iberian company like Semapa.

  • I would be interested in the boss score for the following two companies, which I thought to be interesting:
    C&C Group Plc (Ireland)
    Mota-Engil (Portugal)

    • Martin,

      according to my model, C&C is currently fairly valued. Mota Engil looks overvalued in the model, relatively low ROE (6-8%) with high volatility.

      mmi

      • Thank you, mmi.
        C&C was my “quality” pick when price was lower. Although it never was a bargain.
        Mota-Engil was my mean reversion/risky pick, but risk/reward is not as good as before.

        What could also be of interest are the bonds of your boss companies. Lower volatility should mean lower risk to bondholders. Especially If there are convertibles, sometimes one gets simliar chances with less risk. Is it possible to integrate this into your automated model? If a bond looks promising one could read the prospectus.

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