value and opportunity

IVG

After a few days of calm, it seems to get interesting again. A few days ago, an American hedge fund, claiming to own 30% of the convertible, came out with an interesting statement.

It seems to be that IVG treated the on-loan from its Dutch issuing vehicle as structurally subordinated in the calculations issued a few weeks ago. In my opinion this would be a clear mistake.

Yesterday evening, IVG increased the pressure as it declared that no agreed restructuring plan has been achieved yet. I assume that this is not the end of the story yet, but it clealry shows that this will not be an easy walk in the park.

Edit: The subordinated bond lost further and is trading at 5%. As I have repeatedly mentioned, this will most likely result in zero recovery both, for the stock and the hybrid.

CIR SpA

CIR SpA reported results yesterday. Operating results were mediocre, the “Highlight” was a 160 mn EUR write down at Sorgenia. So using 0.5 as P/B multiplier for Sorgenia was the right thing to do in my valuation exercise.

Interestingly, the market seems to have anticipated this already. There also doesn’t seem to be any decision about “lodo Mondadori”. The current trial is only about tax evasion at Mediaset. I didn’t find anything about the Mondadori settlement.

Osram

Osram shares jumped 4% today after the quarterly earnings release.

“The market” seemed to have expected worse numbers. To a certain extent, i find the press release irritating.

The headline reads:

Osram records profitable growth in the 3rd quarter

However, in the real world:

– Sales dropped by 2% (in EUR)
– the positive net income of 14 mn EUR was the result of a one time gain due to a disposal

In the press release, you see a lot of adjusted numbers. Free cashflow looked strong but I guess at the moment they do not invest a lot. Overall a mixed bag. But I do not like the communication style.