Performance review September 2013

Performance

September was a very strong month in most markets. The Benchmark (50% Eurostoxx, 30% Dax, 20% MDAX) gained 5.6%, this is the best month for the market since January 2012, where the BM started into the year with an 8.4% gain. Interestingly in September, the Eurostoxx outperformed both, DAX and MDAX.

The portfolio gained 4.9%, an underperformance of -0.7%. As discussed many times, I expect the portfolio to underperform in these markets, especially now when I own around 25% cash.

On a year-to-date basis, the portfolio is still ahead the benchmark with a gain of 26.6% against 17.5%.

The September performance was boosted significantly by two special events: The new buy out attempt for Rhoen Klinikum (+8.6%) and the minority buy out of EGIS (+30%). Other outperformers were Sol (+9.1%), Tonnelerie (+9.7%) G. Perrier (+9.5%), IGE (+7.1%). Underperformers were April (-1.3%) and Miko (+1.6%).

Nevertheless it is also important in my opinion to assess the own performance as objectively as possible with regard to skill and luck. Yes, 26.6% YTD sounds like a lot of skill. But in reality, there is a huge percentage of luck (in the form of BM performance) involved as well. European small and mid cap indices are performing like crazy (MDAX +30% YTDT, French mdi/small caps +22%, Italian Small/midcaps +31% and +37)%. As I am investing mostly into those small and midcaps, my performance doesn’t really look so good compared to those benchmarks. Yes, the decision to invest half of the portfolio in French and Italian small and midcaps was a good one, but the stock selection was rather mediocre and the cash allocation so far value destroying.

Portfolio activity

Portfolio activity was rather high with 3 transactions. I sold Pharmstandard after a few days because I overlooked an important aspect (record date). I increased the Rhoen Position and I added Trilogiq as a new “half” position. I am actually considering putting a “hard” limit on portfolio transactions per month in place (maybe 2 or 3)

Portfolio as of 30.09.2013:

Name Weight Perf. Incl. Div
CORE VALUE    
Hornbach Baumarkt 3.9% 8.8%
Miko 2.5% 4.3%
Tonnellerie Frere Paris 5.9% 99.9%
Vetropack 3.8% 7.3%
Installux 2.8% 24.5%
Poujoulat 0.8% 11.4%
Cranswick 5.5% 44.7%
April SA 3.8% 33.0%
SOL Spa 2.9% 54.9%
Gronlandsbanken 1.8% 12.3%
G. Perrier 3.7% 50.3%
IGE & XAO 2.1% 18.5%
EGIS 3.2% 35.0%
Thermador 2.6% 8.2%
Trilogiq 2.4% 8.4%
     
OPPORTUNITY    
KAS Bank NV 4.9% 45.7%
SIAS 5.1% 75.1%
Drägerwerk Genüsse D 8.2% 169.2%
DEPFA LT2 2015 2.6% 67.3%
HT1 Funding 4.1% 49.9%
EMAK SPA 4.6% 54.2%
Rhoen Klinikum 4.6% 12.1%
     
     
     
Short: Prada -0.9% -17.5%
     
Short Lyxor Cac40 -1.1% -17.5%
Short Ishares FTSE MIB -1.9% -15.4%
     
Short CHF EUR 0.2% 6.4%
     
Cash 21.9%  
     
     
     
Core Value 48.0%  
Opportunity 33.9%  
Short+ Hedges -3.8%  
Cash 21.9%  
  100.0%

7 comments

  • We want more articles i love your blogg 🙂

  • “Your post on Trilogiq SA seems to had a quite impressive impact on the stock price – nearly 10% in a few days.”

    Dann ist ja gut, dass er zuvor privat gekauft hat 😀

    Italien/Frankreich lebt alleine von Tante Angela. Und es ist nur eine Frage bis es platzt. Ich bin gerade in einem PIIGS-Land und es ist teurer als in D. 😀

  • Hi MMI,
    thanks for the idea of Trilogiq SA. I developed a screener which finds industry & manufacturing companies which are actuall ~50% service companies. This idea points in a small cap market segment which every analyst thinks its manufactoring but actually most of their income comes form reoccurring services and is growing at valuations P/E < 10. 80 companies of 1700 companies (France & Germany) matched the screener. Finally I could understand the business model of 3.

    Your post on Trilogiq SA seems to had a quite impressive impact on the stock price – nearly 10% in a few days. I am amazed how your post could be seen as catalyst to close the price-value gap (a little bit).

  • Giuseppe Piazzolla

    Hi, many compliments for your work from Italy.
    I have a small weight in a net net basket (EXAC FP, STLY US, IRC IM, TSPT US) + “near” net net (STAL FP, ELN IM). Any thoughts about tjem? Thanks also for your reference to Shareholder Value Beteiligungen … unfortunately is not in English.

  • Hello. You missed +12% yesterday on Montupet, but the upside potential remains high. Best regards, Jean-Marc

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