Some links

Why antique furniture is so cheap these days

A critical view on Share buybacks

A deeper look into the Coinbase crypto index fund plus a nice overview of the major crypto currencies

Will the current success of momentum investing turn into a curse ?

Morgan Housel on life changing ideas

Will Spotify be ever really profitable ?

The API model will change the Software industry profoundly

 

11 comments

  • Hallo memyselfandi007! Du bist doch ein squeeze-out-Profi! Kann e.on und Rwe die Minderheitsaktionäre wirklich so zwischen 36 und 40€ herausdrängen, oder müssen Sie evtl. doch mehr bezahlen? Grüße juliusjr

  • Interesting re furniture. Honestly, very few living arrangements would even make me think of buying 19th century furniture. The aesthetics and versatility of furniture from 1910s-1960s are far more appealing.

    • From a German point of view I can state the same even about furniture of the 1900-1930 time, rustic furniture as well as art deco. These days used solid wood furniture with an age ofe about 80 – 120 years is not much more expensive than new plywood furniture from Ikea, but at a completely different level of quality. Even for students it is worth a second thougt even purely on the economic side as they better survive regular relocations.
      Actually the mood of fashion these days goes another way. And as quite many people using this furniture die (question of age) there is a continuing fresh supply. Until the mood of fashion may swing again and the supply is getting smaller again…

      PersonalIy I like these kind of quality furniture with a first life, so I am glad about these cheap prices. But it is a good example about the risk of collecting art primary for financial investment as moods of fashion can swing quite heavy.

  • Value Investigator

    Regarding the momentum strategies – as far as I know the academic papers do not control for the “momentum of actual firm performance”. All stocks are sorted according to their last 12 months performance, then they rank the stocks and form portfolios of past winners and past losers. If the past winner portfolio continues to outperform over the next 12 months, this is dubbed “momentum effect”.

    The problem is that the winners may just be great businesses. For example Facebook`s earnings increased by factor 10 over the last 4 years. I mean – who would have expected that? So with every earnings surprise, the stock continues to go up (for the right reasons). With a trailing 12 month PE of 30 including stock based compensation, before taking account of cash and the tax savings this year, it is hard to argue the stock is overvalued relative to the wider market. There are a number of other large tech companies with similar developments, which just continued to surprise on the upside.

    I would go as far as saying that the complete pace of digitization since the last financial crisis was much quicker and more pronounced than the vast majority of investors had expected. Had this been anticipated, tech stocks should have been priced extremely highly already 10 years ago (and show normalized returns since then). In contrast, we observed a continuous massive outperformance of the tech sector, due to a long string of positive earnings surprises. Technically, this shows up as momentum, but it is actually the recognition of higher fundamental value due to increased earnings power.

    Of course some tech stocks appear overpriced today (but not only tech stocks). But even if, for example, Amazon and Netflix would only trade at half of today`s prices, we would read similar articles today.

  • “Room for error lets you stick around long enough to let the odds of benefiting from a low-probability outcome fall in your favor”
    very true

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