Some links

A great look back 10 years ago when Porsche created the Volkswagen Short Squeeze

The 5 most influential (historic) blog posts on Software ever

Don’t rely on the high dividend yields of consumer staples stocks

Forager is seeing Inflation risks

Notes from the SF Sohn conference and the Capitalize for Kids conference

Why Chinese short-video start-up Bytedance is supposed to be worth 75 bn USD

Some deep thoughts on how to apply Machine Learning to equity investing


  • Suggestion: is it time to look at Ingenico?

    • And one more suggestion (I know I am being carried away):

      I have noticed that you have some expertise in the banking and financial services sector. Have you ever looked at Atlas Mara?

      Terrible execution so far, but brand new management appointed a few weeks ago and it is trading at less than 50% (47% today) of its Capital! (Calculated by dividing Mkt Cap over Capital and Reserves). So it seems a steal in the absence of a rights issue to fund operations or NPL provisions….

      p.s. Ingenico is more pressing as its event-driven (it is undergoing a so-called bidding-war (whatever that means – it’s Natexis really).
      UBS posted this yesterday:
      „[W]e have not been fans of Ingenico’s acquisition strategy, but it has bought an interesting collection of assets, albeit at a very high price. We think this collection – Bambora, Global Collect, Easycash, BS Payone – has strategic value, particularly in a rapidly consolidating European market. Its payment assets are growing double digit and we value this at 14-16x EV/EBITDA and terminals at 10x (competitor Verifone traded at 7x prior to take-out at 11x); this would give a €88-95 range. We therefore reiterate our Overweight rating with a price target of €91. This equates to a FY19E EV/EBITDA of 13x and PE of 18x.“

    • Lots of capital is going into payments – that can only mean returns will go down. Like in apparel retail.
      It is telling that the PE groups are floating the shares of their payment companies, not buying new ones.

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