Some links 17/2024
Must read (for Oak barrel afficionados): Wintergem’s deep dive into TFF and the oak barrel market
Local Indian Whisky seems to become a thing in India
A very deep dive into HAL Trust in the latest East 72 Dynasty Trust investor letter
Air Street Capital’s “State of AI 2024 report” has been released
Some interesting charts why the current “American stocks are the only game in town” period might soon be over
John Hempton with a rare long pitch on Brambles, the Aussie Pallet maker
A deeper look into the problems brewing under the surface in the Private Equity industry
value and opportunity 
Wow, that analyis of TFF and the barrel market is great!
You should add the link for his first analysis: https://wintergems.substack.com/p/tonnellerie-francois-freres-high
This reminds me to the first short value introduction at your blog, by Matze in German: https://valueandopportunity.com/2011/01/16/core-value-tonnellerie-francois-freres/
(Disclaimer: A share price of 28€ in 2011 compares to 7€ in 2024 as the share split 4:1 some years ago)
Stand there in 2011 and imagine until 2024 they not only to grow their french wine barrel market share rose from 20% in 2011 to 30% (160 Mio€) – that part was expectable, as they startet with aquisitions.
But as well grow a scottish whisky barrel market share from zero to 90% of independent barrel manufacturers (~80 Mio€).
And grow the american bourbon whisky barrel market share from zero to 25% (~200 Mio€), soon probably 30%.
Wow!
It sounds like they are on their way of cornering and nearly monopolizing the global wooden barrel market.
Only a doubt about WinterGems thougths about moats: I follow the thesis that the french barrel market is very moaty, market share wins come mainly by aquisitions.
But their fast, mainly organic increase of market share in the scottish and american whisky barrel markets is a hint of “unmoaty” markets. Could good, new challengers also very fast take away market shares from TFF as TFF got them?
The shareprice gets interesting again, as TFFs share is in free fall.
I think about opening the position that I missed in 2011.