Author Archives: memyselfandi007

Some links 20/2025

Interesting deep dive into the London Stock Exchange Group and its current problems

Already a few weeks ago, Rob Vinall published a very detailed 6M letter including a post mortem of Ryman

OpenAI has released interesting usage data for ChatGPT

The Valuelytica Substack (for some reason) backtested my own old BOSS Score method

Streaming services are jacking up prices on an ongoing basis without delivering more value 

Again, in 2025, Momentum investing is the way to gain Alpha (for the time being)

Secret Sauce Investing Substack with a deep dive into Novo Nordisk

Private Equity Mini Series (5): Trade Republic offers Private Equity for the masses (ELTIFs) -“Nice try, but hell no” 

Previous episodes in this series:

Private Equity Mini Series (1): My IRR is not your Performance
Private Equity Mini series (2) – What kind of “Alpha” can you expect from Private Equity as a Retail Investor compared to public stocks ?
Private Equity Mini Series (3): Listed Private Asset Managers (KKR, Apollo & Co)
Private Equity Mini series (4) : “Investing like a “billionaire” for retail investors in the UK stock market via PE Trusts

Management summary:

In this post of the “Private Equity Mini series”, I look a little bit deeper into a Retail Private Equity offering (ELTIF) that has been distributed to 10 mn clients of German Neo Broker Trade Republic since last week (including myself).

There were a lot of articles in the German press trying to explain the product and the associated fees, which in my opinion were mostly wrong. Not surprisingly, as it is extremely difficult to find out what these vehicles actually charge in fees and costs. I’ll therefore concentrate only on the fees and expected returns.

As a spoiler, I do not think that the return expectations of 12-15% p.a. net after fees and costs are anywhere close to reality. I would go as far and even call this “miss selling” as these levels would be “best case” outcomes in my opinion.

Fees and cost based on my estimates will be between 4-7% p.a. (for the deal that I analysed) depending on the performance of the underlying assets and overall returns are dragged further down by the required cash allocation.

I also think that the regulator should here require a full and fair disclosure of Total Expense ratios (including all fees and costs) for different gross return scenarios. For a normal investor, it is close to impossible to gain this information, even for a professional it is hard to estimate based on the provided documentation.

Due to the effort of analyzing the fee structure, I did not have the motivation to look into issues like liquidity windows, early redemption panalties etc. as it just makes things worse for the retail investor.

In the case of the analyzed “Single Manager” EQT Nexus product, the whole purpose of giving private investors access to Private Equity is an actual waste of time, as investors can easily get a very similar exposure with a much better return/risk profile simply by investing into the underlying share of EQT.

In any case, a low cost, diversified Equity ETF will most likely outperform these retail Private Equity structures significantly in the mid- to long term. Although I have analysed only one fee structure, I do think that the main take-aways are applicable to most similar “Semi liquid” structures targeted towards retail investors.

Here is the “full monty” on 18 pages if you are interested in the details.

I have a link for the fee model in the pdf but you can also send me an Email/message if you like to receive it.

Quick updates: EVS Broadcast, Eurokai & Jensen

EVS Broadcast

Let’s start with the not so good news: EVS Broadcast, as in Q1, came out with a slightly disappointing 6M press release:

Sales down yoy, EBIT down more and EPS down quite significantly:

However, on the positive side, orders are up and they confirmed the guidance they gave in Q1 for 2025. SO 2025 is pretty “backloaded” with regard to sales and profits, however EVS does have normally quite good visibility mid-year on what’s going to happen until year end.

I want to point out two interesting details from the press release. The CEO said the following:

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Domo Arigato Mr. Roboto – Using AI Chatbots for an initial Stock Quality scoring

As I mentioned in my 2025 Q2 Performance review, my central investing tool is now a dynamic watchlist that prioritizes Companies based on Quality, Valuation and Momentum.

I have already discussed my preliminary approach to momentum the last time.

Now how to approach the quality of a company in an efficient way ?

The main issue here is that I will not be able to do a “full stack” analysis for each and every company I come across. But I want to have at least a quick “starting point” which I could use to decide if it makes sense to dig deeper or not.

I defined 10 criteria that give me a first insight on how a company could fit to my “Beuteschama” or not. If I would want to check these criteria manually, I would need to use several sources, such as TIKR, some stock websites, the companies’’s IR website and the annual and quarterly reports. A process that on average takes me at least 60-90 minutes to get to a conclusion.

So I decided to try out LLMs in order to “outsource” this first step screening and scoring.

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Some links 19/2025

Microsoft has analyzed which business activities are easiest performed by AI (FT Link)

Great paper from AQR analyzing that “Buffer funds” using options to “improve” the risk return of stock portfolios underperform against simple stock & cash alternatives

Surprisingly, alcohol consumption has dropped most among Republican voters in the US

Noise Cancelling is the new sunscreen

An interesting glimpse into the past when some people thought that the Sony Walkman was a grave danger to humanity

And a look even further back: 1910, the year the Modern World lost it’s mind

Thomas Pueyo tries to answer the question why “Moskow is so weird”.

Navel gazing Alert: How to improve my investment process by incorporating “Momentum”

Management summary:

“Navel gazing” alert: This post doesn’t contain any actionable investment ideas but rather explores how I can enrich my own investment process in the future by incoprorating some measures of Stock price and fundamental momentum.

Excursion: My secret hobby

First I have to admit that for a few months now, I do have a secret hobby: I am watching on a regular basis a Wikifolio (Wikifolio is a German/Austrian platform where everyone can set up a “fund” and other investors can participate) from an Austrian trader with the name Richard “”Ritschy” Dobensberger.

Not only has he managed to attract 160 mn EUR in investments into his portfolio but he has averaged 33% CAGR over the last 13 years, resulting in an overall performance of around 4000% which is really really remarkable and puts him into the top of any trader I know.

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Some links 18/2025

The “Mr. Market Miscalculates” Substack does a very decent “monthly recap” post. I really like this format.

The “Secret Sauce Investing” Substack with a decent post on the Global Spirits industry

Interesting Podcast with Dan Rasmussen from Verdad on Private Equity as a liquidity trap

Some deep thoughts on the role of a repeatable process in investing and other areas

Diet Sodas are anything but clearly not healthy

Richard Beddard on a few UK stocks including Mortgage Advice Bureau

Klement on Investing with an interesting post on the sources of negative alpha for active stock funds (hint: Do not time the market)

Novo Nordisk – 9 years later

Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVISE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

9 years, three encounters

One of the great aspects of writing an online blog for a long time is that I can look back and find something I have written a long time ago which I would have otherwise long forgotten.

In Novo Nordisk’s case I have looked at the company almost exactly 9 years ago, mostly because Rob Vinall was invested back then (he sold since).

Initially I looked at them in August 2016 and then again a few months later when the share price had declined even further (There was a stock split of 2:1 in 2023, so the per share numbers in my old posts need to be divided by 2).

In the end, I did nothing, although my second post basically marked the low point in the stock price almost to the exact day.

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Some links 17/2025

Ben Thompson (Stratechery) thinks that “community” is to only answer for content creators in the age of AI

Rubicon Stockpicker 6M report with some interesting new positions (Novem, Stratec, Hgears update)

Verdad Capital on increasing buybacks and dividends in Japan

An interesting pitch on an GLP-1 “stock basket” (Novo etc.)

Plus a pretty decent analysis if GLP-1 is indeed a wonder drug or not

Even more than 100 years ago, price momentum seems to have been a relevant factor in stock investing

A recent paper on low volatility stock alpha 

Private Equity Mini series (4) : “Investing like a “billionaire” for retail investors in the UK stock market via PE Trusts

Private Equity Mini series (4) : “Investing like a “billionaire” for retail investors in the UK stock market via PE Trusts

This is the 4th part of my Private Equity “mini” series. The previous posts can be found here:

Private Equity Mini Series (1): My IRR is not your Performance
Private Equity Mini series (2) – What kind of “Alpha” can you expect from Private Equity as a Retail Investor compared to public stocks ?
Private Equity Mini Series (3): Listed Private Asset Managers (KKR, Apollo & Co)

Background:

Not sure if this is mainly a German phenomenon, but you can’t listen to a German finance podcast without being quite aggressively advertised on how Private Equity is finally being democratized through some “revolutionary” retail offerings that almost always are quite complicated and contain another layer of fees on top of what the PE guys are charging.

The main pitch is that now even the small guy on the street can do what previously only billionaires could do: Invest into Private Equity and make boat loads of money.

The hard truth is that Private Equity has been democratized long ago in the UK but no one gives a sh** about it.

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