value and opportunity

Highlight: If you read only one thing this week then Wintergem’s deep dive on Moats (and the apllication on Adyen) is a MUST READ

Richard Beddard with a nice check up on UK Tech company Rasperry Pi

The newest AI models seem to be capabable of lying to their supervisors

If you like non-nonsense, down to earth finance talk, this podcast episode from Todd Wennings Flyover Stock blog/podcast is great.

Some US Small cap ideas from Royce

The Dungeon Investing substack with a first look into Square Enix (Very good Substack for everything related to gaming)

DB_Silver_Fox Substack on Carl Zeiss Meditec

The race is on to develop the perfect tires for EVs

The AI “revolution” needs a lot of Energy and it is not clear where that should come from

Great round-up of recent research on the “Low-vol strategy”

Looking at this research from KOI, assuming a 10% growth rate for more than a couple of years is really aggressive

A good summary of the insane Microstrategy story (so far)

As always, Ben Evan’s big annual presentation is worth looking into

Augustusville is “bottom-fishing in sick man’s land”

Sweet Stocks with an interesting write-up on US recruiter Robert Half

Maynard Payton with a very interesting “Small Cap Spotlight report” about Software Circle, the UK version of Chapters

Todd Wenning with a fantastic post about improving the “Return on Mental Capital”

For the port enthusiasts: An interesting deep dive into Port Automization (US focus)

NotebookLM, the AI tool from Google is really impressive. Especially the “make a podcast from any text” function.

Everything you (never) wanted to know about sand and if it is really scarce or not

California is losing inhabitants and companies at scale these days (FT, Google search results)

Being a successful Contrarian investor is harder as it seems

Mavix with a write-up on Italian Live event Audio company Powersoft

Interesting write-up on Polish Mini Market operator Dino Polska

Concerns are increasing about the Private Credit “Asset class”

Emerging Value on struggling UK serial Acquirer SDI Plc

The “success rates” in Venture capital investing are quite low

The UK renewable sector looks potentially interesting again (FT, search result)

Prof. Damodaran with some reflections on how AI will impact the investment analyst profession

Nice deep dive into recently UK listed CK Infrastructure from Bos Invest

Cliff Asness from AQR thinks that markets have become less efficient over time

Remitly looks like a potentially interesting Fintech stock

The boom time of dating apps is (long) over

The rise and Fall of NFT trading venue OpenSea mirrors the NFT market

In the US, “professional whistle blowing” seems to be a very lucrative career path

TGV Partners 6M letter (Midwich, Fila)

Pernod Ricard is selling its Wine business and an interesting summary on how restaurants price their wine lists

Margins of Asset Managers continue to shrink due to high costs

Interesting and very bullish presentation from Coatue on the “Gen AI Super Cycle”

Very interesting post from Klement on Investing on the optimal size and discance to the coast of Offshore windfarms

Sweetstock investing with a write-up on an Australian Filling station operator called Viva Energy

Emerging Value with a quick look at Swatch Group

An interesting collection of 3 “Oddball stock picks” form the Bargain Stock radar Substack

Interesting write-up on market research firm YouGov Plc from Robin Research

The WinterGems substack with a portfolio update and the “50% draw down” test

“Every stock has a shelf life” – very good thoughts from Ian Cassel

Very interesting FT article on the “Private Equity Winter” (search result)

Some deep thoughts from Ben Evans on why Generative AI has not produced real use cases (yet)

Michael Mauboussin dropped a great paper on how to interpret and compare valuation multiples

In the first 3 months of 2024, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +3,2% (including dividends, no taxes) against a gain of +6,0% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog. Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in the first 3M 2024:

Partners Fund TGV: +9,0%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: +4,0%
Squad European Convictions: 3,4%
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen: +5,9%
Squad Aguja Special Situation: +1,2%
Paladin One: -5,9%
Alphastars Europe: +0,6%
Gehlen & Bräutigam: -1,3%

Performance review:

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