Tag Archives: finance

Quick Updates: EVS Broadcast, Thermador, Eurokai and Sixt

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The last few days are super busy with 8 (or more ?) of my companies reporting 2025 numbers. That’s why I do only the first 4 right now, the others (Jensen, SFS, Bois Sauvage and Italmobiliare) will follow soon.

EVS Broadcast 2025 preliminary results

EVS released preliminary numbers last Friday. At first sight, they were a little bit of a “mixed bag”. Revenue was up which is good for an “odd” year, EPS slightly down. 

EVS explained that that they have invested into people to penetrate especially the US market. The second half of the year was really good, the first 6 months were weaker, mainly because of the “Tarif tantrum” from Uncle Donald.

The outlook for 2026 was quite good:

In the call, the CFO mentioned that for 2026 they don’t plan big additional investments into staff and that more M&A could be possible.

According to TIKR, analysts expect EPS of 3,36 for 2026. So far, the development is roughly within the initially expected case from 2024. Knowing EVS, there is also a good chance that they will revise 2026 numbers upwards during the year.

The 1,20 EUR dividend will compensate for waiting a little bit longer although Belgian withholding tax is not nice.

Thermador 2025 preliminary results

Thermador followed this week with 2025 results. As to be expected, sales were slightly negative y-oyy as construction and modernization is still weak in France:

What I find very surprising is how well the result kept up:

They managed to reduce working capital so they have a decent net cash position which should allow them again some M&A. And maybe, maybe the sector looks a little bit better in 2026. Analysts are quite positive. Thermador itself mentions a couple of Government programs which could be positive for them.

Thermador is a “hold” for me at the moment. Nothing to change here.

Eurokai preliminary results 20025

Eurokai also came out with an “Estimate” of the 2025 result. Typically for Eurokai, the result for 2025 will be significantly better than the revised estimates during the year.

They estimate now that 2025 Earnings will be above the 2024 earnings of 88 mn EUR (which included a 19 mn Non-cash positive one off).

Depending on what allocation the Golden share gets at Holdco level, this could result in an EPS of up to 6 EUR . Which means that despite the significant increase in the share price, Eurokai is still very cheap.

Investors should prepare once again for a very cautious outlook for 2026, although in my opinion, there are a lot of factors which indicate that 2026 could be once again better than 2025, even before any “juicy” one-off profits from partial sales to Container shippers.

The share price is now slowly approaching the historical ATHs from 2006/2007.

Eurokai is now by far my largest position but I leave that one untouched. 

Sixt Preliminary results 2025

Sixt was the fourth company that week that released 2025 results. Although the results ended up to be a little bit below the forecast from Q3, it clearly seems that analysts have expected worse as Avis and Hertz both showed huge losses and declining revenues.

Sixt in contrast managed to grow also in the US:

And a significant increase in Profits:

What analysts seemed to have really liked was a quite optimistic outlook for 2026:

That seems to have surprised analysts and led to a “decoupling” of the share price from those of the weaker US competitors:

With a trailing P/E of 9 and a dividend yield of 5,8%, the pref shares are really “good value” in my opinion.

To be continued soon….

Some thoughts on Vibe Coding, SaaS vs AI (10 Moats) and Guidewire Software

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Executive Summary:

This post does not contain any actionable investment advice but rather some personal ramblings on Vibe coding and the attempt to analyze a specific Software company (Guidewire) according to a Template of 10 Moats for Software companies and their vulnerability to the AI threat.

Introduction:

My track record as a Software investor is to put it mildly, very poor. My best Software Investment so far is Chapters Group which I bought as a net-net before it even became a VMS Serial Acquirer. My blog and portfolio archive also tell me that I sold Microsoft in 2011 at ~25$ per share with a 4% gain because I thought that the Office products had no future. So please take everything I say about Software with a grain of salt or even better, just ignore it.

I do have a background in Software development. Although I would not call it Software development but “Code butchering”. It started as a teenager on a C64 with Basic and Assembler and ended in the late 1990s with Cobol/PLSQL working for a large US Consulting Company (yes, I was young and needed the money). Knowing the speed of financial institutions, I would not be surprised if some of my Spaghetti code would still be running somewhere….

Why am I saying this ? Because of course, Software stocks have been doing quite poorly over the past weeks/months. In addition, I also had the opportunity to play around with Claude Code first hand. 

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Private Equity (Mini) Series 6: Private Equity for the masses – Y2K edition

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Previous Episodes of the Private Equity (Mini) Series:

Private Equity Mini Series (1): My IRR is not your Performance
Private Equity Mini series (2) – What kind of “Alpha” can you expect from Private Equity as a Retail Investor compared to public stocks ?
Private Equity Mini Series (3): Listed Private Asset Managers (KKR, Apollo & Co)
Private Equity Mini series (4) : “Investing like a “billionaire” for retail investors in the UK stock market via PE Trusts
Private Equity Mini Series (5): Trade Republic offers Private Equity for the masses (ELTIFs) -“Nice try, but hell no”

Time Machine: Y2K

Some of the older readers of my blog might have active memories about the year 2000. There was the so-called “2YK Scare” in the late 1990ies, the fear that computer systems (and planes) would crash when the year 2000 would start. Of course it didn’t happen, the Dot.com bubble got pumped up once more and the rest is history.

Another event that got less attention was the that back in the year 2000, the now long gone Dresdner Bank issued a Certificate (which is a popular structure in Germany to give retail investors exposure to anything) that was actually a bond linked to the long term returns of an underlying Private Equity Portfolio managed by Swiss PE manager Partners Group. The very same Partners Group that now has teamed up with Deutsche Bank to run an ELTIF.

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The Anatomy of a 100 Bagger – How a Canadian Investor managed to hold Google for 21 years

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A few weeks ago, fellow blogger Govro from the Wintergems Substack casually mentioned on Twitter/X that he has now realised his first 100 bagger with Google/Alphabet.

I found this fascinating for several reasons. First, he is the only guy I know who has been holding Google/Alphabet for 20 years. Secondly, I had often pondered investing into Google/Alphabet but always found it too expensive. And thirdly, I never managed to hold a well performing stock for so long.

In addition, I also think that there are a lot of private investors out there, who are not famous, but from which one can learn maybe more than from “Super Stars” like Warren Buffett or Bill Ackman.

Therefore I was highly interested to learn better how he managed to do so and maybe this is kind of interesting for other investors as well.  

I sent him a list of questions and he answered them in detail. Below you’ll find the Q&A. The first questions are about his general investment approach, the second half on the Google position.

In any case, I highly recommend to follow his Substack (it’s 100% free).

My summary and learnings follows:

  1. Govro is an experienced, self-taught investor who identified Google early as a stock that was showing great growth at a reasonable valuation.
  2. He invested also in not so great tech stocks like Ebay and Yahoo, but managed to get out of them and keep the compounder
  3. As a “quality growth”  investor, he seems to be able to invest based on a pretty long time horizon (3-5 years at any time).
  4. His approach of diversifying between Fast and Slow compounders is quite unique. The slow compounders provide some stability and allow him to create liquidity in general market drawdowns/panics in order to increase his best performing positions
  5. He does deep research and concentrates on certain industries only, but on a global level
  6. He is able to hold a quite concentrated portfolio, allowing a single position to go up to 20% of the portfolio, or in the case of GOOG even 33%.
  7. His deep research and conviction also allow him to double down in a general market panic like 2008
  8. Besides Google, he owns another stock that is already up 50x. So Google/alphabet might not be just a “one hit wonder” for him

Compared to my approach, I think the main difference is clearly the strong focus on mid term growth, allowing for higher starting PE’s and the nerves to let a position run to 20% (or more) of the portfolio.

So far, I only “copied” two stocks from his portfolio, Bombardier and Logistec, which were great successes. I will clearly pay very high attention to what he is doing in the future. 

Here is the detailed Q&A with Govro:

Govro Q&A final.docxDownload

Performance review Q2 2025 – Comment: “Just keep going or reflect & adapt ?”

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In the first 6 months of 2025, the Value & Opportunity portfolio gained  +5,8% (including dividends, no taxes) against a gain of +15,6% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).

Links to previous Performance reviews can be found on the Performance Page of the blog.

Performance review:

As mentioned in Q1, in relative terms 2025 turned out to be a tough year. Despite my traditional overweight in European stocks, I didn’t have enough exposure to performing sectors (Financials, Defense) but instead too much exposure to weak sectors like Oil/Energy related (ATD, DCC), Alcohol (TFF) or construction (Thermador, Samse etc.). I also had no expsoure to takeovers or buy outs.

The only positive news is that June was a relatively good month, in relative terms the best month since December 2023 and the first few days in July looked quite good as well.

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My 23 (+1) stocks for 2025

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Following an annual tradition since 2013, by the end of the year, I review my portfolio by writing/updating very short summaries for each individual position.  17 of the 23 positions from last year are still in the portfolio and I have added 6 new positions. That turnover has been mostly driven by reviews (Admiral, ABO Energy), or the price target had been reached (DEME) and by finding new ideas. A more comprehensive Performance review will follow in early January 2025.

A short user guide:
My preferred style of investing is a bottom up approach, focusing on 20-30 small/midcap stocks that in my opinion have a good return/risk profile over the next 3-5 (or more) years. Many of these stocks are not household names and are unlikely to make spectacular gains in any single year. Many of them look interesting only after the second or third glance and are rather boring, which is exactly what I am looking for. So if you are looking for a “Hot stock for 2025”, this post won’t help you much.

And always remember: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

As last year, I have created a portfolio overview chart based on holding periods which I proudly present here:

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STEF S.A. (ISIN FR0000064271) – An “Ice Cold” Quality Compounder at a “bonkers bargain” price

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!

As always with my more detailed writeups, I will focus on the general sections in the post and attach the full pdf for anyone interested in the details. And of course the Bonus Sound Track.

  1. Elevator pitch:

STEF SA is a pretty unique listed French company that runs a “temperature controlled” agrifood supply chain and logistics business across 8 European countries. Majority owned by its Directors and Employees (~72%) the company has compounded book value, earnings and dividends by 12% p.a. over the past 22 years with little or no impact from any of the big crises (GFC, Euro, Covid, Ukraine) that hit Europe in the meantime.

This business trades at an incredible low 8x trailing P/E which in my opinion, considering the track record, their growth opportunities and the “essential infrastructure” character is a “bonkers bargain”.

Some shorter term headwinds exist (interest rates, French politics, agrifood inflation), but in the mid- to long term the set.up for very decent shareholder return is excellent, with very limited fundamental downside, 

  1. Introduction:

I have looked superficially at STEF from time to time but for some reason, I never went deeper but kept it on my watch list. Only recently, when I scored my watchlist more systematically, STEF came out as pretty attractive. In addition, the current political tensions in France motivated me to dig deeper.

  1. The Company & The business

3.1. What Problem does STEF solve ?

STEF is active in “temperature controlled” storage and transport of food from the manufacturers to either wholesalers, retailers or restaurants. Many food items are perishable and the warmer the environment, the faster these items will go bad. In many cases, going bad can effect severe health problems for the ultimate end customer. STEF, with its triukcs and especially warehouses helps to keep food cool and fresh without incurring too high costs for this service.

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All Belgian Shares Part 1 – Nr. 1-20

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Hello Belgium, here I am !!!
As in my previous series, a random number generator will determine in which order I will look at the roughly 210+ shares.

One initial remark on the “Expert Market” Segment: This is a very illiquid segment of stocks that are traded only once a week (Tuesdays) in an Auction. Some stocks haven’t traded for years. Sometimes very little or no information is available for these companies. In this series, I will only take a closer look at those Expert market stocks that have been trading at least once in 2023. The others I will only mention briefly. As the Expert market is almost 50% of the universe, there will be a lot of very short reviews.

Let’s go !!!

  1. TPF Contracting (Expert Market)

TPF Contracting SA provides design, management and supervision, and asset management services for public and private clients in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa. It offers its services for transport and mobility, buildings and cities, and environment and water sectors.

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