Efficient markets – Quick check Greece 2012 bond
So we have a new “PSI” package for Greece.
If I understood everything correctly, as a current holder of the March 2012 bond, one will receive the following securities (example: 10.000 EUR nominal):
– 15% or 1.500 EUR in EFSF securities, which should be as good as cash
– 430 EUR or 4.3% of accrued interest in EFSF securities
– 31.5% in 20 different (!!!!) new Greek Government bonds. This means one will get 20 different bonds at a nominal value o EUR 157.50 each !!!
– a currently undefined “warrant” on the Greek GDP developement
At the German stock exchange, the march bond is currently selling around 37%. The August 2012 bond is selling at 26%, the longer bonds around 23%.
It seems that still a lot of people seem to believe that they will be paid in full in march. Because if you calculate the implict expected price of the new bonds at the 35% price tag, you would end up with a value of ~57% for the new bonds which is totally unrealistic.
The implict price for the new bonds priced into the longer bonds is more like 20% of the (new) nominal value.
There is no reason that the new Greek bonds should tarde significantly above the old bonds as the amount of debt will more or less remain constant and since last Friday, every private bondholder is effectively subordinated to the ECB.
So as a relative value trade, one could now short the march 2012 bond against the August 2012 bond if this would be theoretically possible.
For any “small money” gamblers, the transaction costs for having to sell at least 22 different investments after the exchange will further diminish any possible gains.
On the opther hand, this could open up some interesting opportunities AFTER the exchange, I am especially looking forward to the “GDP warrant”.