Track record (attention: shameless self advertisement)
When I looked through Tim du Toit’s Eurosharelab, I saw that Tim actually also shows his non-public track record since 2004.
For myself, I keep score of my track record since 2001 but I hesitate to publish this as it is not really possible to verify.
Then however I realised that I took part in the “Aktienbord Musterdepot” since 2007 with a kind of “best ideas” portfolio. In parallel, I discussed my strategy at my “home Board” Antizyklisch Investieren (only in German and you have to register).
Although the “Aktienboard” platform is not perfect (for example Dividends are not included), the performance relatively closely tracked my “real” performance. It is also an interesting way to look at how my old portfolios looked like and in what kind of stocks i was invested at that time.
2007 Performance was 34.4% plus 2,94% in Dividends.
That compares pretty well against 22.9% for the Dax 22.3 for the MDAX and +6.9% for the DJ Stoxx.
If I look at the 2007 ending portfolio, the only stock I still hold is WMF Vz. At that point in time, I held mostly German special situation stocks as I was not able to find cheap stocks anymore.
2008 Aktienboard performance ended with a loss -13.54 % before dividends of 2.70%, again quite good against -40.4 DAX, -46% MDAX and -45% DJ stoxx.
This was mostly due to avoiding any financial exposure and concentrating on low beta special situations like Biotest and other small caps which is basically still my main strategy.
“>2009 Aktienboard performance was +45.86% plus an additional 3.56% in Dividends and the absolut best year “on the record”. Again quite good compared to Dax (23.9%), MDAX (26.7) and DJ Stoxx (21%).
On the one hand, I rode the recovery story in cheap large caps, but additionally I kind of “discovered” distressed and subordinated debt which offered amazing risk/return opportunities. Subordinated bonds were also the way to inevst in financials without getting diluted through all the capital increases.
In the last “pre blog” year, the Aktienboard portfolio performed with 33.5% + 3.47% dividends (remark: I think the overview number is better than the detail page performance).
This was the only year where the “best ideas” performed better than my real portfolio by a margin of about 10%.
Benchmarks in 2010 were DAX 16.1%, MDAX 34.9% and DDow Jones Stoxx -5.35%. The 2010 portfolio contains already a significant part of the current portfolio, with AIRE, Buzzi, Hornbach, AS Craetion and EVN, 5 stocks are still relatively heavily weighted today.
Before getting to enthusiastic about this track record, one has to say that this investment style would not fully scale into a 10 mn portfolio I am trying to run virtually at the moment. Some trades, like in illiquid Depfa subordinates etc. were only possibel with double digit k EUR amounts or sometimes less.
In the last 5-6 years, I was also able to profit from the “secular” German recovery story which turbo charged German small caps plus the “once in a lifetime” opportunites in the subordinated bond area.
Going forward, it will be very difficult in my opinion to find such secular stories again. My biggest hope is that an eventual PIIGS revovery and maybe some French small caps offer comparable risk/return opportunities.