Performance review Q1 2018
Performance Q1 2018:
In Q1 2018, the Value & Opportunity portfolio lost -1,38% (including dividends, no taxes) against -3,90% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (Perf.Ind) (25%), Eurostoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%)).
Some other funds that I follow have performed as follows in Q1 2018:
Partners Fund TGV: -10,79%
Squad European Convictions +0,19%
Ennismore European Smaller Cos -1,40% (in EUR)
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen -0,47%
Evermore Global Value -3,03%
Greiff Special Situation +0,65%
Squad Aguja Special Situation -5,38%
Paladin One +0,57%
The top 3 performers on a weighted basis were for Q1
|Weight 12/17||Perf ytd||Attr|
|Tonnellerie Frere Paris||9.8%||7.7%||0.8%|
The top 3 detractors were:
|Weight 12/17||Perf ytd||Attr|
Clearly, Silver Chef was the dominating negative surprise in 2018 so far. On the plus side, especially the French stocks show resilience.
The relatively good performance of the portfolio was supported by a 14,5% cash position. To be clear: this is not an active market timing attempt but rather the lack of convincing ideas at the moment.
I sold IGE& XAO in the beginning of February at 138 EUR, netting a gain of ~228% for 4,7 year holding period. I assumed that it was a good price as the take-over offer was only 132 EUR. So far it looks like that this was a mistake as the stock now trades at 151 EUR. Acquirer Schneider SA received only 70% of the shares and I guess investors are expecting a higher offer. The other exit was Silver Chef in March, which resulted in a -40% loss and hopefully some lessons learned.
The only new position was Expedia, which I revisited and found more attractive than back last year when i looked at them for the first time.
As always, the current portfolio can be seen on the portfolio page.
Q1 2018 was in my opinion a quite interesting quarter. At first, it looked like that nothing could stop this bull market from going higher every single day. But then somehow the tide turned and market participants got more cautious.
For me personally the biggest stories in Q1 came out of China: Two prolific foreign asset buyers, HNA and Anbang now seem to be in huge trouble. HNA has started selling it’s “trophy assets” and Anbang has been basically taken over by the Government. Both conglomerates were huge buyers of non-Chinese assets in the past. For me, for a long time, China was “the gorilla” in the famous video. But I have to admit that for the last 2-3 years I stopped worrying about China because it looked like the Government had everything under control. That these two Group’s now are more or less bankrupt in my opinion is a somehow troubling sign. It is really difficult to understand what’s going on in CHina but I do think it might be worth to look into this deeper in order to find out what is really going on there. What I found interesting is that especially the Anbang case was almost completely ignored by the financial media.
Although I am not a market timer and macro investor, I do think it makes sense to keep an eye on such potentially very important developments.
In any case, I think it will pay out to remain patient. Other than in previous years, the “fear of losing out” by not being invested in the big momentum names (e.g. FANGs) looks a lot less pressing this year. Which is a good thing in my opinion.