value and opportunity

Highly Recommended: Rob Vinall’s 2024 letter is out

Paul Singer is a very rare Podcast guest. So if he appears, do listen/watch. A true “living legend”.

Heat waves and droughts are really bad for GDP in the mid- to long term

Flyover Stocks with a great post on how capital cycles work (Examples Bourbon & Home building)

Maynard Payton with an interesting write-up of BIG Technologies, a UK based “fallen Angel” IPO

The new Mauboussin Paper “Probabilities and Payoffs” is worth reading

An interesting article on a busted Austrian Private Equity deal and the pitfalls of “adjusted EBITDA”

Recommended: Wexboy with his 2024 portfolio & performance review

A great video explaining the East 72 Dynasty portfolio with a lot of interesting “family owned” companies

Some deep thoughts from the Brooklyn Investor on the “Broken Markets” theme

Nat Bullard’s annual presentation is a must for anyone interested in the energy sector

An interesting analysis that shows that “real assets” were not good hedges against inflation following Covid

Fantastic post why you should never rely on Bullshxt Earnings errrr Adjusted EBITDA

Royce Funds Microcap 2024 review with some summaries of US microcaps

Some deep thoughts on the relationship between material wealth and happiness

You can challenge any of Prof. Damodaran’s assumptions on Nvidia, but compared to the many clowns and scumbags that pose as stock analysts these days, his logic and level of transparency is just awesome. Well done Professor !!!

Nice wite-up on conglomerate Jardine Matheson from Emerging Value

Some interesting stats on UK take-over premiums from Klement on Investing

For anyone interested in the insurance industry, the Swiss Re Sigma reports are a great resaource

Interesting Sharescope article on small cap premium and a few UK Trust ideas

Philipe Luchesi with a new Video discussing Laurent Perrier (French, Youtube offers translation in subtitles)

Nice year end review from the “no deep dives” Substack with some interesting positions

Wintergem Substack with an update on Hingham Savings Bank

Famous short activist Hindenburg announced to stop operating

Are Cannabis spiked drinks really replacing alcohol in the US ?

I had linked to the study last time, here is a summary of how Ozempic/Wegovy seem to change people’s eating habits

Fascinating story about the development of the Video Game “Star Citizen” that might cross the 1 bn USD budget soon

FT Alphaville on how overvalued the USD actually is (Hint: a lot)

A very entertaining “future 10 year asset allocator” review from AQR’s Cliff Assness

Short seller Hindenburg once again swings out against Carvana

An interesting and inspiring story about a family that produces cymbals since 400 years

A decent list of 2025 top picks from UK investors/Bloggers

An interesting paper on how food demand seems to change with GLP-1 drug intake

“Big potato” is now controlling the US French fries market

A great post on what happened in the AI/LLM space in 2024

Highlight: If you read only one thing this week then Wintergem’s deep dive on Moats (and the apllication on Adyen) is a MUST READ

Richard Beddard with a nice check up on UK Tech company Rasperry Pi

The newest AI models seem to be capabable of lying to their supervisors

If you like non-nonsense, down to earth finance talk, this podcast episode from Todd Wennings Flyover Stock blog/podcast is great.

Some US Small cap ideas from Royce

The Dungeon Investing substack with a first look into Square Enix (Very good Substack for everything related to gaming)

DB_Silver_Fox Substack on Carl Zeiss Meditec

The race is on to develop the perfect tires for EVs

The AI “revolution” needs a lot of Energy and it is not clear where that should come from

Great round-up of recent research on the “Low-vol strategy”

Looking at this research from KOI, assuming a 10% growth rate for more than a couple of years is really aggressive

A good summary of the insane Microstrategy story (so far)

As always, Ben Evan’s big annual presentation is worth looking into

Augustusville is “bottom-fishing in sick man’s land”

Sweet Stocks with an interesting write-up on US recruiter Robert Half

Maynard Payton with a very interesting “Small Cap Spotlight report” about Software Circle, the UK version of Chapters

Todd Wenning with a fantastic post about improving the “Return on Mental Capital”

For the port enthusiasts: An interesting deep dive into Port Automization (US focus)

NotebookLM, the AI tool from Google is really impressive. Especially the “make a podcast from any text” function.

Everything you (never) wanted to know about sand and if it is really scarce or not

California is losing inhabitants and companies at scale these days (FT, Google search results)

Being a successful Contrarian investor is harder as it seems

Mavix with a write-up on Italian Live event Audio company Powersoft

Interesting write-up on Polish Mini Market operator Dino Polska

Concerns are increasing about the Private Credit “Asset class”

Emerging Value on struggling UK serial Acquirer SDI Plc

The “success rates” in Venture capital investing are quite low

The UK renewable sector looks potentially interesting again (FT, search result)